Tar Heel Blog staff predict UNC men’s basketball season

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Tar Heel Blog staff predict UNC men’s basketball season

David Starnes · SB Nation

Thu, October 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC ·

6 min read

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"Frightened of change? But what can exist without it? What's closer to nature's heart?"

Marcus Aurelius, Meditations , Book 7.18

The watchword for UNC basketball this coming season will definitely be "change." Fans demanded it. Boosters demanded it. And so, change has arrived. The suddenness of the change, and the timing of it, meant a coaching transition on the cusp of roster construction season. A coach who never seriously considered coaching college basketball on one Tuesday found himself coaching one of the college game's biggest brands on the Tuesday next. That same day, portal season opened.

Six months and three exhibition games later, UNC sports a roster full of intriguing pieces and potential but also alarming questions at both the point and the post. The team's best "back to the basket" player, Jarin Stevenson, entered college ball three seasons ago seeing himself as a versatile three. Experienced big Cameron Fens currently can't play because a court in Tennessee ruled one way, while Seth Trimble can because a court 250 miles to the north ruled the opposite. In three exhibition games, the two most likely offensive facilitators, Neo Avdalas and Terrence Brown, have both flashed and struggled. Rebounding has been an issue. Turnovers have been rampant.

Reminder: Roy Williams went 19-11 in his first season at UNC. That was a seasoned, successful college head coach in a stable sport with five future NBA players on his roster. Change happens both suddenly and constantly. Results take time.

The potential of this roster remains clear. The path to reaching that potential appears long. How soon might things click into place? That's the key question driving the varying season predictions for most. Here are staff predictions, with commentary following.

2026–27 Basketball Predictions

*Individual Predictions*	*	*	*	*	*	*
*	Team MVP	Most Improved	Biggest Surprise	Most minutes off the bench	Best Defender	Most Three-Pointers
Akil	Neo Avdalas	Isaiah Denis	Kevin Thomas	Maximo Adams	Sayon Keita	Matt Able
Al	Sayon Keita	Jarin Stevenson	Sayon Keita	Maximo Adams	Sayon Keita	Jarin Stevenson
Brandon A	Sayon Keita	Isaiah Denis	Isaiah Denis	Maximo Adams	Sayon Keita	Matt Able
Brandon G	Neo Avdalas	Jarin Stevenson	Isaiah Denis	Maximo Adams	Sayon Keita	Jarin Stevenson
David	Sayon Keita	Isaiah Denis	Alex Samodurov	Maximo Adams	Sayon Keita	Matt Able
Matt B	Neo Avdalas	Jarin Stevenson	Jaydon Young	Maximo Adams	Sayon Keita	Matt Able
Matt F	Sayon Keita	Isaiah Denis	Sayon Keita	Maximo Adams	Sayon Keita	Matt Able
Max	Jarin Stevenson	Isaiah Denis	Alex Samodurov	Maximo Adams	Sayon Keita	Matt Able
Tanya	Neo Avdalas	Isaiah Denis	Matt Able	Maximo Adams	Sayon Keita	Matt Able
Tom	Neo Avdalas	Isaiah Denis	Alex Samodurov	Maximo Adams	Sayon Keita	Matt Able

*Team Outlook & Season Predictions*	*	*	*	*	*	*
*	Best Win of the Season	Worst Loss of the Season	Regular Season Record	ACC Finish	NCAA Tournament Seed	NCAA Tournament Outcome
Akil	vs Duke	vs WVU	24-8	3rd	4	S16
Al	vs Duke	vs Stanford	24-8	3rd	6	S16
Brandon A	vs Duke	vs WVU	23-9	3rd	4	S16
Brandon G	vs Duke	@ FSU	26-6	3rd	5	E8
David	Duke x2	@ Louisville	22-10	5th	6	Rd32
Matt B	vs Duke	@ Pitt	25-7	3rd	4	S16
Matt F	at Duke	@ Georgetown	21-11	4th	6	S16
Max	vs Duke	@ Louisville	27-5	2nd	3	FF
Tanya	vs Duke	@ Louisville	23-9	3rd	5	Rd32
Tom	Virginia	@ Virginia Tech	22-10	4th	6	Rd23

Team MVP

Sayon earning this would probably bode well for UNC, a future in which the raw freshman adapts quickly to the college game and dominates the post by the back end of the season. Neo earning it would validate the vision Malone has articulated for this team, with the tall, lengthy sophomore being a match-up nightmare for defenses while he runs the offense. Jarin earning it would be a season for the ages for the Chapel Hill native. Terrence Brown not being on this list suggests optimism that the talented point guard successfully adapts to stirring the drink rather than dominating the ball.

Most Improved

Isaiah has the sizable pre-season lead here, which is understandable given how much of his freshman season was lost to injury and a glut of more experienced bodies in the backcourt on last year's roster.

Biggest Surprise

UNC 2026's best life would be everyone on this list making a compelling case for the honor.

Most Minutes Off the Bench

It's Maximo barring… never mind.

Best Defender

Someone teach Sayon the Dikembo finger-wag.

Most Three Pointers

Matt will likely take the most, the first spot-up option for both Terrence and Neoklis. That said, his ability to attack close-outs will go a long way towards defining UNC's success on that end of the floor.

Best Win of the Season

No Tar Heel preseason is complete without mentally sketching paths to Ws over Duke.

Worst Loss of the Season

Here's where the big question, "When does this all start to click?" starts to rear its head. West Virginia happens on November 27, @Louisville on January 5, and @Virginia Tech on February 27. Losing big at Louisville — a program that spent wildly on its basketball roster on the one hand and complained nonstop about its athletic deficits on the other — would suggest things start to click somewhere in the midst of the conference schedule. Losing to Virginia Tech, a team predicted to finish in the middle of the ACC, that late in the season would indicate the possibility things never really click.

Regular Season Record, ACC Finish, NCAA Tournament Seed and Outcome

Regular season predictions range from 21-11 to 27-5. ACC predictions land anywhere from second to fifth place. Postseason predictions vary as well, with a predicted NCAA seed somewhere from 3rd to 6th, with a tournament run ending in the second round at worst and the Final Four at best. None of those predictions seem a to be referendum on the hire of Michael Malone as the head coach. All of them recognize that the team's ceiling will be defined by individual players elevating their games, while the floor will be defined by how well and how quickly those individual talents mesh into a sum exceeding the total of its parts — a meshing dependent, in turn, on who develops and how fast. The variables are many and all overlapping.

Again: Roy Williams finished 19-11 in his first season at UNC before unleashing a 33-win team the following season.

What are your thoughts on the upcoming season? Let us know in the comments below.

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