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The Tennessee State Tigers take on the Murray State Racers in Sioux Falls, SD. Tip-off is set for 11:30 a.m. ET on YouTube.
Murray State is favored by -9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -530. The total is set at 161.5 points.
Here's my Tennessee State vs. Murray State predictionand college basketball picks for November 2, 2026.
Pick: Over 161.5 (Play to 162.5)
My Tennessee State vs Murray State best betis on the over. Be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page and download the Action Network app for the latest picks and analysis.
Tennessee State vs Murray State spread:Tennessee State +9.5 (-102), Murray State -9.5 (-120)
Tennessee State vs Murray State over/under:161.5 (-105o / -115u)
Tennessee State vs Murray State moneyline:Tennessee State +390, Murray State -530
Nolan Smith was a home run hire for Tennessee State . The former Duke standout made an immediate impact in the OVC, making the NCAA Tournament in year one.
He lost most of that team, including Aaron Nkrumah, Travis Harper II and Dante Harris, who guided the Tigers to the Big Dance.
Don't sleep on them, though. Smith won big in the portal, adding Aaron Bradshaw , Ty-Laur Johnson and Arterio Morris .
Bradshaw could dominate in this game with his size advantage at 7-foot-1.
But the key will be whether Morris and Johnson can coexist. Both thrive with the ball in their hands and have shaky shotmaking.
Plus, five-for-five forward Joshua Rivera was a sneaky late add for the Tigers. He's a supreme athlete at the four next to Bradshaw. The 6-foot-6 forward spent last year at Seton Hall and averaged 10 points and 4.3 rebounds per game at Fordham two seasons ago.
I'm not sold on the Tigers shooting the ball well from deep, but I expect them to push the tempo and score a bunch in transition. Their size and athleticism will also overwhelm the OVC and might even be an issue for Murray State.
The Tigers' DNA last year focused on two things: crashing the offensive glass and forcing turnovers. They had a 34% offensive rebound rate and forced turnovers at 19%. That should remain, especially with Bradshaw and Rivera joining the fold.
Murray State is one of the nation's most talented mid-major teams. With deep pockets, the Racers retained star wing Roman Domon and brought in a bunch of talent around him.
Domon averaged 13.6 points per game on 49% shooting and 36% from 3-point range last season.
He wasn't the reason for the Racers' tailspin, however. The issue was they couldn't defend. Will that change this year? We'll see, but it can't get much worse.
The bigger issue might've been rebounding, as Murray State ranked 214th in defensive rebound rate.
Early returns on this season's frontcourt are mixed. The Racers played two exhibition games, beating Wichita State and Incarnate Word . The Shockers won the rebounding battle, 39-36, and the Racers won it 39-30 against ICW.
They don't have anyone huge to protect the glass. The starting center is 6-foot-9 Brigham Rogers , and he's backed up by Valpo transfer Shon Tupuola. Those two will be vital to determining just how good the Racers are.
I'm also curious to see how the rotation shakes out. Ryan Miller can rely on 10-11 players, but he started Brayden Shorter and Talis Soulhac over former top-100 recruit Kaden Magwood and Christian Jones, who averaged 10 points per game at George Washington, in exhibitions.
That's not a bad issue to have. Miller wants to play fast and can use the depth to his advantage; I just want to see what the closing version of the Racers' lineup looks like.
If Murray State plays at a top-10 pace like it did last season, expect it to be in some more high-scoring games.
The line sits at Murray State -9.5, which aligns with KenPom giving it a nine-point edge.
What stands out to me is the total; I want the over here. The Racers and Tigers will play two of the fastest tempos in the country, so expect big-scoring games.
The Racers could crack 90 in this one, as they did in both exhibition games. So, can Tennessee State score in the 70 range? With the pace, no doubt, it can.
And I'm still not sold on the Racers' defense.
Pick: Over 161.5 (Play to 162.5)
