Texas basketball bubble watch: NCAA tournament odds, path to the dance with 1 week to go

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Texas basketball bubble watch: NCAA tournament odds, path to the dance with 1 week to go

Troy Finnegan, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Fri, Mar 6, 2026 ·

4 min read

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The first season under Sean Miller for Texas basketball didn't get off to the hottest of starts, but the Longhorns are starting to play some of their best basketball as March gets going. Despite some rough losses in non-conference play, Texas has emerged as a frisky contender in the SEC.

For much of the season, Miller and company were showing up on the outside looking in according to a lot of Bracketology forecasts . However, now the Longhorns are solidly in the field and should stay there barring a shocking collapse late in the season. A few more wins could even keep Texas out of the First Four, which would be a big boost to its odds of getting out of the first weekend and making a run to the Sweet 16.

This team certainly has the talent to do that, and it has a coach in Miller that has been to the second weekend on a number of occasions.

Before the Longhorns can think about any of that, they have to make sure their spot in the March Madness field is secure. What is the path to doing that, and what should Texas be on the lookout for during conference championship week that could get in their way?

Texas' NCAA Tournament resume

As discussed in Auburn's bubble watch , playing in the SEC gives teams a solid cushion in the NCAA Tournament race with the amount of Quad 1 opportunities that you get in conference play. The Longhorns have done an excellent job taking advantage of those games, with a relatively stellar 7-9 Quad 1 record that sticks out among bubble teams.

Among those seven wins, Texas has beaten Alabama, Missouri and Texas A&M on the road while taking down NC State on a neutral court in non-conference play. Few teams have a collection of wins away from home like that, especially on the bubble, so Texas is in a good spot on the bubble.

The Longhorns do have a few bad losses, namely a Quad 3 defeat to Mississippi State at home. However, they only have two losses in Quad 2, so their collection of troubling defeats is pretty thin.

Texas does have solid predictive metrics, currently ranking 33rd in KenPom. That puts it above most bubble teams in that data point that the selection committee will use when Selection Sunday rolls around.

Texas is also holding very strong in the Wins Above Bubble metric, which the selection committee has leaned heavily on in recent years. The Longhorns currently rank 42nd in that metric with one game left in the regular season, which puts them above other bubble teams fighting for these spots such as Santa Clara, VCU, Auburn and Indiana. Overall, Texas has the resume of a tournament team and should be in the field barring a major collapse.

Remaining path

Texas has the somewhat unenviable task of closing out its regular season with a home game against a team that is not heading to the NCAA Tournament in Oklahoma. The Sooners would love nothing more than to knock off their bitter rivals and damage their tournament hopes, but overall, Texas should be fine in this game and make it through unscathed.

Assuming Miller and company taker care of business against Oklahoma, they will get to 10-8 in conference play this season, but that may not be enough to get them into the top eight in the SEC Tournament seeding. That would mean Texas would play another game against a team near the bottom of the conference before getting a Quad 1 opportunity in the second round.

Regardless, Texas should be safely in the field when Selection Sunday comes unless it loses against Oklahoma and in its first game of the SEC Tournament. A win in even one of those games should secure the Longhorns' spot.

The question then becomes if Texas will be heading to the First Four or not. Bid stealers, such as if Miami (OH), Saint Louis or Utah State were to not win its conference tournament, could bump Texas down the bubble ladder and into the first four. However, with minimal to no bid stealers, it's looking likely that Texas will slot in as a No. 10 or 11 seed in the Round of 64.

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