Before the season started, most fans circled Northwestern's trip to East Lansing as a toss-up, must-win game for bowl eligibility. Before the season started, the media pitted Northwestern as the 14th-best team in the Big Ten. Before the season started, most sportsbooks projected Northwestern at 5.5 wins.
Now, entering Week 7, the preseason projections couldn't have been farther from the truth.
Northwestern travels to Michigan State on Saturday as a 7.5-point favorite, according to FanDuel. The Wildcats are looking to move to 5-1 and are two wins away from reaching their win total, with six games to play. NU is ranked in the top 25 for the first time in more than five years and could be considered a top-five team in the conference.
Michigan State, however, has seen its season go off the rails. The Spartans sit dead last in the conference and have allowed 100 points through their first three conference games. They have lost their last four by a combined 64 points and have already lost their best offensive player, Cam Edwards, for the season.
Still, when the ball is kicked off in Spartan Stadium at 11 a.m. CT this weekend, both teams will be ready for war. Pat Fitzgerald will be desperate to beat his alma mater, while Aidan Chiles and Northwestern will want to silence the green-and-white crowd. When the time comes, Northwestern needs to be ready for a battle.
Northwestern's last conference game was a historic rushing performance. The Wildcats ran for 413 yards against Penn State, with Caleb Komolafe and Joseph Himon II totaling more than 150 yards each. NU added 164 yards and two touchdowns on the ground last week against Ball State in a more balanced offensive attack, but returning to the conference schedule should mean returning to the bully-ball style.
Regardless of a banged-up offensive line, the 'Cats have gotten push up front all season long, and there's no reason to expect change against a struggling MSU defensive line. Three of the last four Spartan opponents have run the ball more than 40 times, all three rushing for well more than 150 yards.
Chiles may have had his best game of the season last week against Ball State, but against MSU, it should be back to the normal diet of running the ball and dominating the line of scrimmage. Komolafe and Himon II flash game-breaking potential with every touch, so NU should let them break the game. The Wildcat way should be via the ground.
Northwestern put together what can be called a solid defensive performance against Ball State. The 'Cats frequently hurried the opposing quarterback and never let Ball State string together multiple positive plays to gain momentum.
NU's one glaring weakness was the secondary, especially its tackling. The Wildcats missed several open-field tackles last week, allowing Ball State to total more than 350 yards of offense. Busted coverages created one-on-one matchups for Ball State skill players, who seemingly always beat the first Northwestern defender with relative ease.
Defensive miscues and poor tackling attempts have been a problem all season long for Northwestern, and that must improve against Michigan State. The Spartans won't methodically march down the field to drain the clock while putting seven on the board, but they do have playmakers who can decimate defenses with their breakaway speed. Rodney Bullard Jr. and Chrishon McCray are both nifty Spartan receivers who have the hands and burst to turn a simple 5-yard pass into a 75-yard house call. The main emphasis for Northwestern's defense should be wrapping up and preventing the big plays.
Chiles is returning to the place where he spent two tumultuous years. Fitzgerald and Northwestern have a long history, and this will be their first meeting since his departure. Michigan State's season hangs by a thread, and it'll do whatever it takes to muck up the game.
I cannot guarantee who will win on Saturday, but I can guarantee tensions will be high.
So, Northwestern can't let everything outside of football bleed into what happens on the field. It's safe to say the Wildcats are the better football team right now, but it's yet to be proven whether they have what it takes to shut out the noise and handle business.
NU has already put the smackdown on a big-headed Colorado team and then routed a Penn State team that looked like a deer in headlights on opening night of the new Ryan Field, but this game means more. The 'Cats have to use the bright lights to their advantage and figure out a way to survive and advance.
