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Three Keys to Victory: UNC looks to rebound against Wake Forest
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- Three Keys to Victory: UNC looks to rebound against Wake Forest
No. 17 North Carolina returns home Saturday looking to bounce back from its first ACC loss of the season when it hosts Wake Forest at the Dean E. Smith Center.
In its last outing, North Carolina (13-2, 1-1 ACC) was overwhelmed 97-63 by SMU as the Tar Heels allowed the most points they have surrendered all year. The Mustangs shot 60% from the field , including 51.9% from 3-point range, and posted a staggering 1.426 points per possession. They were even more efficient after halftime, pouring in 58 points while shooting 71.4% from the floor and 60% from beyond the arc.
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Even with that setback, Carolina has been nearly flawless at home. The Tar Heels are 10-0 in the Smith Center this season and will try to extend that perfect mark against Wake Forest (10-6, 1-2 ACC). Saturday's matchup is one of just two home dates for UNC in January, the first time since the 1990-91 season that North Carolina will play only twice in Chapel Hill during the month.
This start has Carolina in a familiar position. The Tar Heels are 13-2 for the first time since 2015-16, a season that ended with a trip to the national championship game. That team opened 7-2 before ripping off 12 straight victories to reach 19-2.
Wake Forest, on the other hand, has lost three of its last four games, including its latest outing, an 81-78 loss to Miami. The Demon Deacons are led by Juke Harris, who is averaging more than 19 points per game.
Here are three things to watch ahead of UNC's game against Wake Forest on Saturday.
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The Backcourt Needs to Prove Itself
Jan 3, 2026; Dallas, Texas, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Kyan Evans (0) looks to move the ball past SMU Mustangs guard B.J. Edwards (0) during the game between the Mustangs and the Tar Heels at Moody Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
In recent seasons, North Carolina has struggled to establish its identity in the backcourt outside of Seth Trimble. That weakness showed again when SMU's guards, led by Boopie Miller, overwhelmed UNC on both ends of the floor.
The problems surfaced again in a 79-66 win over Florida State. Carolina shot 29-for-68 from the field (42.6%), including just 39% in the first half. From 3-point range, the Tar Heels hit only seven of their 29 attempts (24.1%). Kyan Evans was the lone bright spot, scoring all 15 of his points on 5-for-12 shooting from deep. Without Evans, the rest of the backcourt went just 2-for-13 from 3 — an icy 15.3%.
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Over the last two games, Trimble has gone 14-for-29 from the field (48.2%) and 3-for-9 from 3-point range (33%), piling up 42 points, while the rest of the backcourt has combined to shoot 12-for-44 from the floor (27.6%) and 11-for-35 from beyond the arc (31.4%) for just 37 points.
The backcourt has to respond after that poor performance. Trimble is a reliable presence, but it's time for the rest of the guards, especially Luka Bogavac and Kyan Evans, to get going.
The Game Has to Be Won in the Paint
Dec 30, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels center Henri Veesaar (13) scores as Florida State Seminoles forward Alier Maluk (12) defends in the second half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images
(Bob Donnan, Bob Donnan-Imagn Images)
North Carolina should have the size advantage. Wake Forest leans on a small-ball approach, while UNC starts two players who stand 6-foot-10 or taller. The numbers underscore that edge: Wake Forest ranks 16th in the ACC and 247th nationally in total rebounds per game.
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The Tar Heels also need to establish Henri Veesaar and Caleb Wilson early. They have logged seven games in which both posted double-doubles, including three straight entering the SMU matchup. That streak ended against SMU, when Veesaar scored 14 points and Wilson added 13 as the Mustangs largely turned both into non-factors — something we are not used to seeing. If they control the paint from the opening tip, it could be a long day for Wake Forest.
Force Turnovers, but Don't Turn the Ball Over
One of UNC's biggest defensive problems is forcing turnovers. The Tar Heels rank last in the ACC and 353rd nationally out of 365 Division I programs in turnovers forced per game. They have a chance to improve those numbers against a Wake Forest team that can be careless with the ball; the Demon Deacons rank 16th in the ACC and 200th nationally in turnovers.
Carolina also cannot give it away. Wake Forest averages 9.5 steals per game, which leads the ACC, and forces 15.6 turnovers per game, which ranks second in the league. The good news for UNC: The Tar Heels lead the ACC with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.77 and rank third in the league in fewest turnovers at 9.9 per game.
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Taking care of the ball will be crucial, as it is in every game. But with Wake Forest's athletic backcourt capable of pressuring UNC and creating live-ball turnovers, the Tar Heels need to win the turnover margin — an area where they have struggled. Their minus-0.35 turnover margin ranks 16th in the ACC and 235th nationally.
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This article originally appeared on Tar Heels Wire: UNC Basketball: Three Keys vs. Wake Forest
