Two days have passed and I still cannot believe that Northwestern won that football game.
Saturday was a day where the 'Cats did more things wrong than they did right. It allowed its go-ahead field goal attempt late in the second quarter to be blocked. It allowed Michigan State's Crishon McCray to break free downfield for a 53-yard touchdown reception, a gain which tied Alessio Milivojevic's longest completion of the season. And, of course, there was its ill-advised fake punt attempt on fourth-and-8 from its own 28-yard-line that gave MSU a chance to win the game with the ball deep in NU territory.
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And yet, despite all of these gaffs, Northwestern still found a way to win. It made the big plays down the stretch and, to the disbelief of the 67,423 fans in attendance at Spartan Stadium, it was Jackson Kleather's field goal, not MSU's Liam Boyd's, that were the game's winning points when time expired.
Here are three takeaways from the 'Cats' massive Big Ten road win in East Lansing:
1. This team has "it"
Growing up as a Bay Area sports fan entrenched in a golden era of successful Warriors, Giants and 49ers teams, I've had the privilege of knowing what it feels like to trust a team. To feel that even on the days where the squad is not playing their best — when things are sloppy and ugly and the ball isn't bouncing their way — they are going to find a way to get the job done.
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I hadn't felt that with Northwestern before.
But on Saturday, even as the 'Cats made mistake after mistake throughout the game, I felt the way throughout the game the same way I've felt countless times about my hometown teams: I believed the 'Cats were going to win. MSU takes a 21-13 lead? I still had faith. MSU sniffs out the fake punt? I had confidence that David Braun's boys would find a way to win.
And so did they.
"Never a doubt," said quarterback Aidan Chiles when asked about his team's emotions during the game. "We knew we was gonna win this game, we just didn't know how."
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"I had so much trust in our offense and the kicker right here," said defensive lineman Brendan Flakes, looking at Kleather who sat to his right. "I knew we were gonna win."
"I love the way that our guys continued to take it one play at a time," said Braun. "There was an unwavering belief that we were gonna find a way to win that football game and that's a credit to the leadership on this team."
The 'Cats knew that they weren't playing their best game. They knew that they had made a lot of mistakes. But with the chips on the line, they made enough plays to win. Brendan Flakes still had the "it" to block MSU's go-ahead field goal and give the offense a chance to win. Aidan Chiles and Griffin Wilde still had the "it" to connect for 29 passing yards during the 'Cats' one-minute drill and push NU into field goal range. And, of course, Kleather still had the "it" to send NU home with its fifth win of the season.
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We now know that the 'Cats can win even when it's ugly.
2. The 'Cats have to be better limiting self-inflicted wounds
But with the deserved hype around NU's late-game heroics out of the way, WHAT WERE THE 'CATS DOING for so much of that game????
The 'Cats' narrow victory over the Spartans may go down as one of their most improbable and important wins of the season. However, considering Northwestern was up against one of the worst teams in the Big Ten, this game should not have been as close as it was.
Frustratingly, some of NU's most harmful plays were completely controllable, two of which I will discuss here.
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Northwestern shot itself in the foot on MSU's final score of the day, the 53-yard touchdown pass to McCray that put the Spartans up by eight.
While it was a great pitch and catch between Milivojevic and McCray, coverage was completely blown by Northwestern safety Damon Walters, who can be seen standing in a No. 21 white jersey near the intersection of the near side hashes and the 40-yard-line. After McCray beats Brendan Deasfernandes, who's wearing white jersey No. 3, off the line of scrimmage, it is Walters' responsibility to help on coverage of McCray. But Walters is caught watching the quarterback and McCray runs right by him, getting wide open downfield for a big Spartans touchdown, while Walters is left behind covering nobody in the middle of the field
And then, there was the infamous fake punt call:
Given the down and distance of the play and the context of the game, there is just no world where this call can be justified. Northwestern had a fourth-and-8 at its own 28-yard-line, meaning that the fake's conversion was not only unlikely because it had a lot of yards to pick up, but also extremely risky because a failure would leave the Spartans in field goal range!
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Additionally, Braun's weighing of probability here just doesn't make sense. NU's defense was playing a great second half, and the Spartans had punted on three of its previous drives in the second half (two of which were three-and-outs). It was simply more likely that the 'Cats would stop the Spartans on defense and get the ball back than it was they would pick up the first down on the fake punt… it was a play calling mistake that NU just can't afford to make.
However, though David Braun was as enthusiastic as anybody in the 'Cats' postgame locker room following NU's victory, you better believe that when the team gets together for its first practice back on the lakefront, Braun will be just as loud giving his players a mouthful about all the things that went unexecuted against MSU. And, he has and will continue to take responsibility for where he fell short as an executive as well.
NU knows it needs to be better to meet its lofty goals, and the 'Cats must commit themselves to raising their standards in order to keep stacking wins in Big Ten play.
3. This defense needs more love
As the 'Cats have heated up over the past few weeks, playing Indiana tight and then rattling off three straight wins over the Nittany Lions, Cardinals and Spartans, the offense has drawn lots of national recognition. And the praise has been deserved: the 'Cats ran for over 400 yards against Penn State; Aidan Chiles still is yet to throw an interception; and Chip Kelly is reviving the Wing-T and showing off on a week-to-week basis as one of college football's best offensive innovators.
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However, with all the hype surrounding NU's offense, I feel like we all (including myself) owe the defense an apology for understating the quality of its performances.
Before the Michigan State game, Northwestern had held its opponents to under 20 points in four of its wins. Its defense turned over Colorado four times in its second game, held Indiana quarterback Josh Hoover to his second lowest passing yards total of the season and limited Penn State's run game to 48 yards on 22 attempts.
And, on Saturday, it was Tim McGarigle's defense that won the game for Northwestern. NU held Michigan State to just seven points and 5.29 yards per play efficiency in the second half. And, of course, there were the heroics on the Spartans' final drive. MSU started its drive at the NU 28-yard-line and got a first down after two running plays, but after that the 'Cats buckled down to keep the Spartans out of the end zone and leave their offense with enough time to get the ball back whether the field goal try was made or missed. And then, this happened:
Plays like Flakes' blocked kick have helped how the 'Cats grade playing defense on their side of the field: NU ranks No. 5 in the Big Ten in points per scoring opportunity allowed (which measures how many points a team gives up, on average, each time its opponent gets a scoring opportunity) according to stat rankings.com.
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However, the 'Cats' defense does still rank in the bottom half of the conference in both advanced efficiency metrics and it will be interesting to see how it fairs as NU goes up against better offenses.
