So far this offseason, we have talked about some of the bigger names on the free agent market. That includes the likes of Michael King, Adrian Morejon and Brandon Lowe. Today I want to discuss some under the radar targets that have surprising upside. David Peterson, Kris Bubic and Kyle Hart all have risk, but they also have the ability to outperform their contracts.
For fans of the NL East, Peterson is the biggest name here, so let's start with him. The lefty spent parts of 7 seasons with the Mets before being traded to the Cubs in June. Since 2022, Peterson has had his ups and downs, but has been largely reliable. He has thrown at least 105 innings every year and has posted a WAR of at least 1.
After a dreadful start to 2026, the trade reinvigorated Peterson. He posted a 3.70 ERA with the Cubs and was arguably their best pitcher after the All-Star break. Following the midsummer classic, Peterson posted a 2.73 ERA with 67 strikeouts in 66 innings.
The 31 year old southpaw is not a flashy pitcher by any means. He throws his two low-90's fastballs over 50% of the time. However, those offerings play up due to Peterson's elite extension. His slider, changeup and curveball give him a trio of solid secondary pitches. Peterson relies heavily on ground balls, which makes his ERA heavily reliant on BABIP, but his FIP has generally been in the mid to high 3's throughout his 5 year run.
Peterson will be more expensive than the free agents the Nats have signed over the past few years, but compared to a King or Peralta, he will be cheaper. Something in the ballpark of 3-years $33 million should get it done. One potential issue I would have is that Peterson is fairly reliant on a good defense, but I like his steadiness. He is a solid arm, who can make playoff starts when he is at his best.
Kris Bubic is also a soft tossing lefty, but he is very different from Peterson. The 29 year old lefty has a very high ceiling but his injury prone nature makes him a big risk. However, that risk is also a potential opportunity for the Nats. If Bubic hits, he can be a true middle of the rotation starter while not being paid like one.
Over his last 217.2 innings, Bubic has a 2.98 ERA with a 2.91 FIP and 227 strikeouts. The problem here is that he has only thrown 217.2 innings since 2023. This season, Bubic suffered from forearm and shoulder issues, which is obviously terrifying. However, he got back on the mound at the end of the year and threw in the playoffs for the Dodgers.
In 2025, the one season where Bubic was relatively healthy, he had a 2.55 ERA in 116.1 innings and made the All-Star game. Bubic's fastball only averages 92, but it has elite ride from a lower slot which makes it a very good pitch. He also has a filthy changeup which plays beautifully off the fastball. His sweeper and slider cap off a very complete arsenal.
With his injury issues, Bubic will likely have to take a one-year deal, maybe with a club option. If Paul Toboni is hunting for upside on the free agent market, this would be a great opportunity. We have seen injury prone pitchers suddenly stay healthy before, with Shane Baz and Jacob Degrom being recent examples.
If the Nats can somehow keep Bubic healthy, he would be a great signing. He might not be able to be a full time starter, but I think he could provide value as a reliever if that is how you keep him healthy. Bubic is the type of high upside, lower cost move I could see the Nats making.
One of the Nats biggest needs this offseason is a matchup lefty. Paul Toboni tried so hard to find a left handed reliever who could consistently get left handed hitters out. He never really got his guy though. Thankfully, there are plenty of lefty relievers on the market.
There are top tier guys such as Alex Vesia and Adrian Morejon. This class also has a nice second tier consisting of JoJo Romero, Brock Burke, Sean Newcomb, Gregory Soto and more. However, I have a third tier option that could outproduce that second tier in 2027.
We will see if the Padres pick up Kyle Hart's $2.5 million club option, but if they don't I like the lefty. On the surface, this sounds weird. He posted a 4.92 ERA this year and the 33 year old has a 6.25 ERA in his career. However, his peripherals and stuff tell a different story.
Despite that 4.92 ERA, Hart had a 3.63 FIP and xERA. Hart did a fantastic job of limiting hard contact and getting ground balls. His velocity also went up by over 2 MPH after being moved to a full time bullpen role. If you are looking for a stuff demon, Hart is a sneaky option.
In addition to the harder fastball, Hart also introduced a splitter, which got very good results. Batters hit just .163 against the pitch with a 39.4% whiff rate. That helped him a lot against right handed hitters. Hart's sweeper is also a very strong weapon against lefties.
He has never fully turned that stuff into results, which is why the Padres might not pick up his option. After all, he is out of minor league options and was left off the playoff roster. However, I think he could be primed for a late career breakout entering his age 34 season. Hart will be quite cheap and I think he could outperform better known options such as JoJo Romero or Brock Burke.
None of these three arms are perfect, but they would not be sleeper options if they were. However, I think Peterson, Bubic and Hart all have the ability to outperform their contracts by quite a bit. You would be taking a risk, but the reward could be huge and the price won't be massive.
