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Troy vs JMU Prediction, Odds, Picks, Start Time — 10/29
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- Troy vs JMU Prediction, Odds, Picks, Start Time — 10/29
Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images.
The Troy Trojans take on the James Madison Dukes in Harrisonburg, Virginia, on Thursday, Oct. 29. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
JMU is favored by -19.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1400. Troy, meanwhile, enters as a +19.5 underdog and is +810 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 49.5 total points.
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Here's my Troy vs. JMU predictionand college football pick for Thursday, October 29.
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Troy vs. JMU Pick: JMU -20.5
My JMU vs. Troy best bet is on the Dukes to cover this large spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page .
Troy vs JMU Odds, Point Spread, Betting Lines
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Troy vs JMU Spread: JMU -18.5, Troy +18.5
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Troy vs JMU Over/Under: 50.5 Points
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Troy vs JMU Moneyline: Troy ML +760, JMU ML -1200
Troy comes into this one after losing four of its five games following a 2-0 start, and the Trojans are hanging their heads after last week's complete collapse against ULM.
Troy led, 14-3, with five minutes to play at home against the Warhawks before allowing the last 18 points in the 21-14 loss.
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The offense remained stagnant, registering just 200 total yards, 12 first downs and 65 plays against ULM. Of those 65 plays, just one was deemed explosive.
Outside of its contest against Southern Mississippi, Troy's offense has been the problem. The Trojans have scored just 47 total points in their four losses, and the quarterback play the last two weeks has been really subpar.
Goose Crowder and Tucker Kilcrease have split time the last two weeks, combining to throw for just 188 yards and completing just 23-of-44 passes.
The ground attack has been less effective, as leading rusher Gavin Griffin has been held to just 61 yards on 18 rushes the last two weeks, while Jaheim Merriweather has registered just 21 yards during that stretch.
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A lack of early-down success has caused Troy to be in third-down situations a lot, and the offense hasn't executed. It has converted just 6-of-28 attempts in back-to-back losses.
The offensive line gave up four sacks last week, and this offense is in some major trouble this week facing a JMU team that's coming off its first loss of the season.
The defense has kept Troy in games this season, but the dam is starting to show cracks. Giving up 413 yards on the road against Utah State was bad enough, but giving up 512 yards on 7.9 yards per play against Southern Miss was a major concern.
The defense stifled ULM last week for a decent majority of the contest, but Troy has been shredded through the air this season.
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The defensive metrics are largely aided by the poor offensive teams the Trojans have faced. Their defense won't have much success here.
James Madison was clearly in the driver's seat to position itself to represent the G6 in the College Football Playoff once again.
Early-season showdown victories over Old Dominion and Marshall cleared the way for JMU in the Sun Belt East, and a dominant four-touchdown win over emerging Georgia State nearly solidified JMU atop the division standings.
Just five short days later, the outlook has changed after JMU suffered its first loss of the season at App State in a game it controlled throughout much of the first half.
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The margin for error is gone if JMU wants to repeat as conference champions in 2026.
The offense played well last week and had chances to break the game open, but six straight first-half possessions ended with punts, and a late fourth-quarter interception set App State up in great field position.
With running back George Pettaway listed as out this week, the Dukes need Nick Herman and Seth Cromwell to step up and carry the load.
They have rushed for 480 yards with five combined rushing touchdowns, and JMU will still run the football. We've seen effective use of QB run out of the Dukes, and we should see that again against Troy.
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Camden Coleman will have opportunities to torch this Troy secondary through the air. Coleman is completing 62% of his passes with 1,567 yards and a 14:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but the Dukes have also effectively used backup JC Evans at times.
Evans has thrown five touchdowns while completing 70% of his throws, and JMU has confidence in both quarterbacks.
Four players have caught 20 or more passes, led by Corey Scott, who has 371 receiving yards and four touchdowns this season. Cole Keller is a great pass-catching tight end, and Michael Scott and Braeden Wisloski provide additional reliable options.
The Dukes' defense has been the catalyst for the 7-0 start this season, and stopping the run has been a big reason why. JMU allows just 110 yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry while ranking 15th nationally in rushing explosiveness allowed.
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The activity behind the line of scrimmage has also piled up, as the Dukes have notched 21 sacks and 49 tackles for loss. The defensive line should create a lot of problems for Troy in this game.
This line opened with James Madison listed as an 18.5-point favorite, and JMU has taken money, pushing this line out to -20.5. The total has come down from 52 on the opener to where it currently sits at 49.5. Lay the number with the Dukes.
Schematically, this is a bad matchup for Troy.
The Trojans' offense has been terrible at throwing the football, as both Crowder and Kilcrease are wildly inconsistent. Outside of receiver TK Keyes, Troy has very little explosiveness in its downfield passing attack.
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Troy's offensive line is still playing poorly, and the Trojans allow Havoc and negative plays at a rate that puts them 117th nationally in Havoc allowed.
The Dukes' defensive line will create pressure on the quarterback and force quicker decisions. That will throw off the timing of the veer-and-shoot system.
Troy's offensive system is predicated on being able to run the football with RPO options down the seams or out to the sideline.
When the Trojans can't run the ball efficiently, the system doesn't work as intended. Those problems are going to compound against JMU in this game.
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The Dukes boast the best run defense in the conference, and you can expect the rushing output for Troy to be low, creating long distances on third downs.
JMU is the stronger team, and the Dukes have played a significantly harder conference schedule up to this point. Troy will struggle to move the football in this matchup, and the defense won't hold up for four quarters in this game.
Lay the number as James Madison bounces back at home.
Pick: JMU -20.5
