Tulane or James Madison? Examining which CFP Cinderella has best chance to shock the world

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Tulane or James Madison? Examining which CFP Cinderella has best chance to shock the world

Lorenzo J Reyna, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Thu, Dec 18, 2025 ·

3 min read

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The expanded 12-team College Football Playoff sparked controversy since its inception. Tulane and James Madison sneaking in ignited bitterness out of Notre Dame . But it also places both in this position: Becoming the potential CFP Cinderella.

The odds are stacked greatly against both, though. Reigning American Athletic Conference (AAC) champ Tulane goes into Southeastern Conference territory this weekend. And they get an Ole Miss team that previously blasted the Green Wave and enter as the 17.5-point underdog.

The Dukes face even more daunting odds — going into one of the louder venues in the nation and as a 21.5-point underdog. Plus face Dan Lanning , who's never lost to a Group of Five team as a head coach.

But which non-G5 team looks built to shock the world?

Where James Madison holds edge over Oregon

JMU does have Bob Chesney still roaming the sidelines — despite eventually taking over UCLA .

But the Dukes' system led by dual-threat quarterback Alonza Barnett III could cause fits. He presents a two-headed monster with Wayne Knight.

The latter is fresh off racking up 212 yards against Troy. However, the QB and running back need their offensive line to win the leverage battle.

That won't be easy — as the speed of Oregon's front will stress out the front five. Lanning will find ways to close gaps and bottle this vaunted RPO (run pass option) attack.

Chesney and JMU likely need to lean on defense more here. JMU has a chance if it limits the explosive plays, more so in the ground attack. But the Dukes can also tap into old buddy Curt Cignetti in learning how he forced multiple interceptions of Dante Moore .

Tulane advantages over Ole Miss

Like Chesney, Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall is pulling double duty in coaching and juggling his future gig at Florida.

This helps the Green Wave, as they won't need to adjust to an interim head coach here. Ironically, their opponent is undergoing a coaching change, albeit a more high-profile one with Lane Kiffin bolting to LSU.

Kiffin won't lead the Rebels here despite his attempt at trying to do so. New head coach Pete Golding brings more of a defensive acumen.

Sumrall can take advantage of Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss not having Kiffin by his side. The front line must show their disruptive side and cause discomfort for Chambliss. Offensively, Tulane must spread the ball around.

But now they face a dilemma with wide receiver Bryce Bohanon, listed as doubtful for this weekend . The trio of Shazz Preston , Anthony Brown-Stephens and Omari Hayes must step up big and find holes in the Ole Miss secondary.

Who becomes Cinderella between Tulane and James Madison?

Tulane's opponent faces the most distractions, considering how the last two weeks have gone in Oxford.

While Kiffin has his controversial exit, he was creative in utilizing Chambliss. That aspect is risking being gone on Saturday with Kiffin watching from Baton Rouge. Best believe defensive coordinator Greg Gasparato will unleash a creative 3-4 look to confuse and rattle Chambliss. His unit delivered 34 sacks (linebackers Harvey Dyson and Jordan Norman combined for 13) and picked off 15 passes (Jaheim Johnson leads with four).

The Green Wave also aren't deterred by Sumrall bolting for Gainesville knowing he's on their sidelines — handing them another edge.

Oregon-JMU looks like a massive mismatch. If there's a potential upset brewing, it's at Vaught Hemingway Stadium.

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