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UAB vs USF Prediction, Pick, NCAAF Odds for October 31
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- UAB vs USF Prediction, Pick, NCAAF Odds for October 31
Wesley Hale-Imagn Images. Blazers quarterback Ryder Burton (5).
The UAB Blazers take on the South Florida Bulls in Tampa, Florida, on Saturday, Oct. 31. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
USF is favored by -8 points on the spread with a moneyline of -310. UAB, meanwhile, enters as a +8 underdog and is +250 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 42.5 total points.
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Here's my UAB vs. USF predictionand college football pick for Saturday, October 31.
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UAB vs. USF Pick: UAB +8.5
My USF vs. UAB best bet is on the Blazers to cover as road underdogs. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page .
UAB vs USF Odds
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UAB vs USF point spread: USF -8 (-110), UAB +8 (-110)
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UAB vs USF over/under: 42.5 (-110o / -110u)
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UAB vs USF moneyline: UAB +250, USF -310
UAB has been impressive this season, sitting at 4-3 with a bowl game still very much in play. Head coach Alex Mortensen and his staff have provided significantly better coaching this year.
UAB has shown much more toughness in the defensive trenches, and the Blazers' defense has cut a full 14 points per game off what they've allowed over the last three seasons.
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UAB's defense has also traveled on the road, as the Blazers held a lead at the half against Memphis and also contained Louisiana and Lunch Winfield, holding them to just 21 points and 335 yards.
The secondary has been elite per American standards, as UAB hasn't allowed any opponent to throw for more than 182 yards this season.
The Blazers have surrendered just four passing touchdowns against G6 competition. UAB is fresh off the bye week, and this defense should show up ready to go against a struggling and unimpressive South Florida offense.
The UAB offense has not been exceptional this season, but ill-timed penalties and missed opportunities are the theme.
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UAB has flubbed numerous red-zone opportunities and has had several potential big plays either called back due to an offensive penalty or seen passes dropped.
Quarterback Ryder Burton has completed just 55% of his passes for 1,184 yards with six touchdowns, but had the dropped passes not been so prevalent, those numbers would be much improved.
The offensive line play has to get better for UAB, as the Blazers have allowed 19 sacks and 50 tackles for loss this season, and it's stunning that the ground attack isn't more potent given the talent in the running back room.
Rod Robinson II leads the group with 436 rushing yards, while Bam McReynolds has 335 yards and four rushing touchdowns.
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CJ Smith and Ty Mims are the primary receiving options, and these two are explosive when they catch the ball. With 15 days off since their last game, I look for the Blazers offense to look much sharper in this critical American Conference contest.
South Florida is also coming off a bye week after defeating Kent State last time out by a score of 29-2. Despite the lopsided score, the Bulls didn't look impressive, as they didn't score an offensive touchdown until 45 seconds remained in the third quarter.
USF surrendered a safety early in the game and scored on a 97-yard fumble return touchdown when Kent State was driving to take a multi-score lead.
The Bulls' rushing attack struggled to generate any momentum against Kent State, and that type of performance has been shown all season. USF is averaging just 117 rushing yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry against FBS competition this season.
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DJ Crowther has been the guy in the backfield after transferring to South Florida from Dartmouth this offseason, and he has 518 rushing yards with seven touchdowns.
Quarterback Michael Van Buren hasn't been overly mobile this season, but he does enough to avoid pressure while moving in the pocket.
The pass game isn't overly explosive, and leading receiver Bryson Rodgers is averaging just 11.1 yards per reception. No player has more than two receiving touchdowns, and the offensive line hasn't held up well in pass protection.
Head coach Brian Hartline has won the pace war we thought we'd see between him and offensive coordinator Tim Beck, with South Florida playing a very slow pace. This game against UAB should be a grind.
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The USF defense has been the reason the Bulls are 5-2 this season, as opponents have been held to single-digit point totals three times as this team has been fighting through defensive grinds much of the way.
The defense stops the run well and holds up in pass coverage effectively, and this is the second-best defense in the country in preventing explosive plays.
While not an overly dominant Havoc defense, this unit is excellent on third down and in the red zone, making it very difficult for the opposition to score.
This line opened with South Florida listed as an 8.5-point favorite with a total that has been bet down from 45 to 41.5, where it currently sits. I like UAB to keep this game close in what figures to be a lower-scoring affair.
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USF was outgained by 175 yards against FIU in the season opener, and the Bulls are averaging only 273 offensive yards per game over the last four weeks.
The best way to attack the UAB defense is by running the football, and that's where the Bulls' offensive attack has struggled the most this season.
South Florida won't register the explosive plays on the ground in this matchup, and UAB has been excelling in early downs in conference play. Navy, Memphis and East Carolina were all in third-down situations frequently, and South Florida has converted just 3-of-11 third-down attempts each of its last two games.
The pass efficiency in key situations just hasn't been there, and the Blazers have been elite defensively in passing situations.
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The secondary ranks seventh nationally in PPA Per Pass allowed and fourth in explosiveness allowed in obvious passing downs. So, I look for UAB to get USF off the field regularly in this game.
The UAB offense will have success running the ball, as the USF defense ranks just 82nd nationally in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
There's not going to be a tremendous amount of explosiveness registered on the ground, but UAB should be able to consistently stay ahead of the sticks while giving itself a chance to convert on third down.
South Florida has registered a decent amount of Havoc this season, but the majority of it has come against Bowling Green, Delaware State and Kent State.
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UAB will hold up just fine in the trenches, and I expect this offense to play with confidence and execute to find scoring chances.
There's not as much separation between these two teams as the line would indicate, and I wouldn't be stunned to see this game be super tight in the closing minutes.
Pick: UAB +8.5
