Davante Adams just finished as a top-10 fantasy receiver at age 32, which is an accomplishment in its own right. How he got there should give fantasy managers real pause. Nearly half his production came from a single source that history says will not repeat. The price has come down for 2026, though probably not nearly enough.
Adams is 33 years old and the numbers are stark. Since 2000, there have been 27 seasons in which a receiver aged 33 or older averaged at least 16 fantasy points per game. Restrict that to 2011 and later and it falls to seven. The full list reads Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, and Julian Edelman. That is the company Adams needs to keep to justify a top-24 selection.
Give him full credit for last season, because it was excellent. Adams finished as the WR8, or the WR9 if you count Rashee Rice's eight games. He scored 14 touchdowns in 14 games, extending his streak to six straight seasons with at least eight. He ranked first among all receivers in end zone targets while sitting just 18th in total targets. Adams was essentially the Rams' goal-line back.
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What makes him so lethal down there is the variety. Adams can beat you with the fade, the back shoulder, or the quick slant, and there is no way to account for all three in advance. When he and Matthew Stafford are on the same page, it is genuinely unstoppable.
Strip away the touchdowns, though, and the decline is already visible. Adams posted a 1.96 yards per route run. Care to guess the last time he finished under 2.0? You have to go back to 2017. He ran a route on just 82% of pass plays, a career low by a wide margin, and played only 72% of the snaps. His 56.4 receiving yards per game sat well below his 71.0 career average and marked his lowest full-season figure since 2015.
Here is the number that tells the whole story: a staggering 49.3% of Adams' fantasy points came on end zone targets last season. The NFL average for receivers is 14.5%.
His WR22 price is baking in some touchdown regression. I do not think it is close to enough. Let me be generous and assume no further decline in his play, just a normalization of the touchdown rate. That gives you roughly 72 catches for 960 yards and even eight scores, which is a lot of touchdowns for 72 receptions. That is 12.7 PPG.
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Could he post another outlier touchdown season? Sure. But even another 14, which we cannot and should not predict given his Vegas line sits at 9.5, would leave him a hair under 15 PPG. Missing out on that outcome is not going to cost you much, and I do not consider it particularly likely.
Adams is my WR29 against that WR22 ADP. I expect further decline across the board. I am not interested in drafting him.
Ja'Marr Chase| CIN
Puka Nacua| LAR
Jaxon Smith-Njigba| SEA
Amon-Ra St. Brown| DET
Drake London| ATL
Justin Jefferson| MIN
Nico Collins| HOU
CeeDee Lamb| DAL
A.J. Brown| NE
Malik Nabers| NYG
George Pickens| DAL
Rashee Rice| KC
Chris Olave| NO
Zay Flowers| BAL
Jaylen Waddle| DEN
DeVonta Smith| PHI
Ladd McConkey| LAC
Tee Higgins| CIN
Terry McLaurin| WAS
Emeka Egbuka| TB
Tetairoa McMillan| CAR
Garrett Wilson| NYJ
Luther Burden III| CHI
Christian Watson| GB
Jameson Williams| DET
Parker Washington| JAX
Rome Odunze| CHI
Carnell Tate| TEN
DJ Moore| BUF
Marvin Harrison Jr.| ARI
Davante Adams| LAR
Brian Thomas Jr.| JAX
Quentin Johnston| LAC
Mike Evans| SF
Stefon Diggs| WAS
Michael Wilson| ARI
DK Metcalf| PIT
Jakobi Meyers| JAX
Josh Downs| IND
Michael Pittman Jr.| PIT
Jayden Reed| GB
Courtland Sutton| DEN
Wan'Dale Robinson| TEN
Chris Godwin Jr.| TB
Makai Lemon| PHI
Jordan Addison| MIN
Alec Pierce| IND
Khalil Shakir| BUF
De'Zhaun Stribling| SF
Rashid Shaheed| SEA
This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network .
