The 2026 football season for University of Virginia's offense began with a 34 point performance in a rout of ACC rival North Carolina State. However, the offense has lost steam week-by-week, leading to three losses and an increasingly unlikely chance to reach Charlotte again this year. What appeared to be a conquering army that would lay waste to the Atlantic Coast Conference one running play at a time, has routinely run out of answers after the first drive of a game.
This frustration reached new heights in Virginia's road loss to No. 24 Southern Methodist University, with the offense unable to capitalize on an admirable performance by the undermanned UVA defense, which limited the Mustangs to 23 points. Virginia possessed the ball multiple times in the second half with an opportunity to take the lead, but simply could not move the football.
When looking at Virginia's scoring offense by quarter against Power 4 competition, the difference is clear to see. Virginia is consistently able to start games fast, scoring at least 7 points in the first quarter in four out of the five games in this sample. Even when looking at the SMU game, the only P4 game in which UVA did not score in the first quarter, UVA drove down to the Mustang 5 yard line before an untimely fumble took away a walk in first quarter touchdown for Beau Pribula.
| OFFENSIVE POINTS VS. POWER 4 OPPONENTS |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina State |
10 |
7 |
7 |
10 |
| West Virginia |
14 |
0 |
7 |
6 |
| Florida State |
7 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Syracuse |
7 |
0 |
7 |
14 |
| Southern Methodist |
0 |
10 |
3 |
0 |
| AVERAGE |
7.6 |
3.4 |
4.8 |
6 |
This ineffectiveness comes as a surprise after a breakout season in 2025. UVA took a massive step forward in 2025 with Chandler Morris leading the Cavalier offense. The 'Hoos were highly adaptable, scoring plenty points in shootouts against Florida State and Duke (in the regular season), but also controlling the ball and taking advantage of stout defensive performances against teams such as Washington State and Missouri.
Despite losing players like Morris and J'Mari Taylor, and assistant coach Terry Heffernan to Stanford, the 'Hoos entered 2026 with the most experienced offensive line in the country, an embarrassment of riches at running back, and the addition of Missouri transfer quarterback Beau Pribula.
The formula for success for this offense seemed simple:
Control the ball
Lean on defenses with a diverse run game
Take advantage of defensive mistakes through the air
For the Virginia offense this year, sticking to this formula for a full sixty minutes has been much easier said than done.
The 2026 Virginia offense has consistently started each game following this formula to letter. Virginia utilizes its talent up front to stay ahead of the chains, running backs Jekail Middlebrook and Xay Davis set the tone for the drive with consistent gains, and Pribula's mobility is utilized not only as a runner but as a passer on designed rollouts that gain easy yards. Even the downfield passing game, seen as a potential weak spot on this team, is effectively utilized early, allowing Virginia to mix productive runs and chunk yardage to move the ball down the field and put points on the board.
Starting fast is a skill in football, and more often than not, early points will put a team on the path to victory. In this effort, almost every team in college football will utilize a script of plays to be run in sequence to begin the game. This is done to set the tone for the offense, set up plays later in the game, and to determine the opponent's defensive strategy. In this regard, Virginia has put on a masterclass in how to open up a football game, with early drives consistently putting points on the board for the 'Hoos.
The issues invariably begin for Virginia when the offense reaches the end of its opening script. Virginia will abandon schemes, players, and concepts that succeeded entirely, with the offense turning into a shell of itself. The once dynamic, fluid offense becomes decidedly rigid. This is best illustrated by Virginia's percentage of drives that result in a score in each quarter against Power 4 opponents.
| SCORING DRIVE % VS. POWER 4 OPPONENTS |
% |
| 1ST QUARTER |
50% (6/12) |
|---|---|
| 2ND QUARTER |
17.65% (3/17) |
| 3RD QUARTER |
28.57% (4/14) |
| 4TH QUARTER |
33.33% (5/15) |
The drop-off in effectiveness is jarring to see, the Virginia offense has coin-flip odds of scoring in the 1st quarter, but struggles tremendously in the following three quarters.
This would be a significant issue for any offense, but for an offense like Virginia's, it can spell disaster. A ball-control offense that aims to dominate time of possession is going to have fewer chances to possess the football because they are taking more time off of the clock. To win while playing this style of football, Virginia can ill-afford to come away from possessions empty-handed this many times.
The issue for this offense is not a lack of talent, a lack of will, or a rash of injuries. The issue at hand is one of implementation and feel for the game when defenses adjust to the initial script and we are forced to adjust in-game. This offense sees a clear shift in playcall selection and sequencing that coincides with the precipitous fall in offensive output.
Blame for these offensive struggles has been widely placed with Virginia offensive coordinator and play-caller Des Kitchings. Kitchings' 2025 campaign helped silence many doubters; however the first-half of the 2026 campaign has revived many of the concerns and criticisms surrounding his play-calling. Middlebrook was well on his way to another stellar game after 55 first half yards against SMU, but he only carried the ball twice in the second half for just 4 yards.
Despite these issues, head coach Tony Elliott has been consistent in his support of Kitchings and it appears highly unlikely that he would make such a massive personnel change while his team possesses a winning record. After all, Elliott's consistency and faith in his staff paid massive dividends in 2025 and has been a core principle of how he has rebuilt Virginia Football. That being said, it's clear that Virginia's offense must improve in order for the Cavaliers to make a bowl game, let alone put together the 8 to 10 win season many Virginia fans were hoping for.
Though it may bring joy to the message boards and social media, I do not think that dismissing Des Kitchings is going to be a panacea for this offense. In fact, it could end up doing even greater harm than the current state of affairs is doing. Firing a coordinator is not only a massive change to make in the middle of the season, it can serve as a massive alarm bell to recruits, potential future members of the staff, and to the world that this is a program in crisis. While I would certainly call Virginia's offensive struggles an area of great concern, the sky is not falling. We just need to score more points.
Part of the solution for this problem might just be directing Kitchings' efforts more towards what he does best, which is the preparation and game planing that goes on during the week prior to the game. When looking at that scoring drive chart from another angle, it's very clear that Kitchings is highly effective in his preparation for the opposition and the 'Hoos have a clear advantage with his early game scripting. It could be argued that the path to success for the Cavalier offense could come from letting Kitchings hone in on that rather than removing his play-calling responsibilities entirely.
While conventional wisdom suggests that the offensive coordinator is supposed to be a football team's play-caller, it is not uncommon to see other members of the coaching staff assist with situational play-calling in a significant way. Tony Elliott was the play-caller for some of the best teams in Clemson history, and has shown to be up to the task if it was required. Quarterbacks coach Taylor Lamb and offensive line coach Joey Orck both have offensive coordinator experience at the FCS level as well. There is no shortage of skilled coaching on the offensive side of the football for the Virginia Cavaliers, and the recent stagnation in offensive production for the 'Hoos requires that all possibilities be evaluated.
Such a change would not require the type of drastic change that would be seen as an overreaction or rash decision. No coaches are dismissed, no awkward mid-season press releases are put out, and nothing detracts the focus from the main goal: scoring points and winning football games.
While it is clear that the Virginia offense must adapt to overcome the current struggles it is facing, I still firmly believe that this staff has what it takes to lead Virginia to the College Football Playoff. These kinds of struggles and growing pains are the kind of issues that every football program outside of Bloomington, Indiana is forced to deal with when trying to break through from also-ran to contender. The standard has been raised and not every part of the program is going to ascend at the same rate, the great programs find ways to solve those problems without creating an even bigger problem in the process. This staff has been asked to lead this program through far worse than a scoring drought and come out on the other side stronger.
