It's Duke Week, and it's time to start breaking down all the ways the Tar Heels can reclaim the Victory Bell this Saturday. Let's start with Duke's QB, Walker Eget.
Duke's quarterback this season was going to be Darian Mensah. At the last minute, Miami swooped in to steal Mensah, buying him out of his contract with Duke along with his favorite receiver, Cooper Barkate. Duke, which had spent the entirety of roster-building season expecting Mensah to be their quarterback, were left trying to find a new QB well after most teams and QBs had already made their moves.
Duke found their QB for 2026 at San Jose State. Eget played four years there, the last two as a starter, completing 58% of his passes for 5,550 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions. He was not a dual threat, rushing 64 times for 195 yards. At Duke this season, he's 84-134 (63%) for 930 yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception, rushing for eight yards on six carries against one sack.
And for what he's asked to do, those numbers in the aggregate are serviceable. Duke didn't bring in Eget to be Darian Mensah. Eget's job is to hand off to Nate Sheppard and complete passes in spaces the defense vacates in order to stop Sheppard. Towards that end, Eget's been very up and down.
QBR is an ESPN metric that measures QB play across a number of variables to assign a value, 1 to 100, to QB performance. Darian Mensah leads in the category for the season, with a rating of 92.5. Gio Lopez comes in at 15th, with a rating of 82.8. Billy Edwards fares well in this metric, boosted by the defenses he's had to face, scoring 69.8. Eget ranks 98th nationally at 43.7.
However, Eget doesn't arrive at that number with a succession of performances in the mid-40s. No, Eget's been very much Jekyll and Hyde against FBS competition this year:
Against Tulane: 6.3 QBR. 13-26 for 136 yards, no touchdowns, no turnovers
Against Illinois: 68.4 QBR. 15-21 for 201 yards, three touchdowns, no turnovers
Against Stanford: 31.8 QBR. 14-24 for 202 yards, one touchdown, one interception
Against Georgia Tech: 71.1 QBR. 26-41 for 258 yards, one touchdown, no turnovers.
All of those defenses are statistically bad, especially Stanford's, currently in the lead for the worst defense among P4 schools. UNC's defense ranges somewhere between above average to good, depending on who's healthy. Still, which Eget shows up Saturday will go a long way towards determining the outcome.
There's also the question of how UNC chooses to play Eget. Bill Belichick has enjoyed some luck with opposing quarterbacks faced over the last two seasons, drawing the following:
Grayson Loftis, UNC Charlotte, QBR 15.9 (UNC win, 20-3)
Elijah Brown*, Stanford, QBR 41.9 (UNC win, 20-15)
Joe Filardi*, Syracuse, QBR 5.6 (UNC win, 27-10)
Robbie Ashford, Wake Forest, QBR 52.5 (UNC loss, 28-12)
Jaden Craig*, TCU, QBR 51.5 (UNC win, 15-10)
Tait Reynolds*, Clemson, QBR 32.1 (UNC loss, 28-20)
Holden Geriner*, Pittsburgh, QBR 43.5 (UNC win, 21-17)
*Appeared against UNC in their first FBS start
Not many coaches get to face five first-time starting QBs across 17 games or seven QBs ranking among the worst in FBS. Against all of them, Belichick played conservatively, allowing those QBs to make mistakes and come up short on important plays. It's worked five out of seven times, which accounts for all five of Belichick's FBS wins as UNC head coach. Twice, the opposing QBs found their footing, balling out in the second half (Ashford and Reynolds) – both UNC losses.
UNC's defense will focus first on stopping Nate Sheppard, Duke's All-ACC running back. If and when they do, however, can they make Eget uncomfortable? That's the X factor when UNC goes to Durham to take on the Blue Devils.
