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Week 5 College Football Picks, Predictions: Our Best Bets for Thursday’s NCAAF Games
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- Week 5 College Football Picks, Predictions: Our Best Bets for Thursday’s NCAAF Games
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Thursday Night Football.
Tonight's NFL matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns isn't the only battle on the gridiron tonight.
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On top of the NFL game on deck, we have two college football games on tap: New Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky and Tulsa vs. North Texas.
With two games to get to, let's take a look at our Week 5 college football picksand NCAAF predictions for the games on Thursday, October 1.
Be sure to download the Action Network app for more expert picks and analysis!
Week 5 College Football Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Thursday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
Game
Time (ET)
Pick
9 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page , which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
By RoadToCFB
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Credit to Western Kentucky athletics for successfully funding the department for the year with back-to-back games at Georgia and Indiana . All it cost WKU was an 0-2 record with a combined -82 point margin.
All things considered, it could have been way worse, but it also may have buried the brief snapshot we got of a concerning team in Reno the weekend before.
The Hilltoppers were walloped by Nevada in a 49-14 game, increasing their scoring margin against FBS teams to -117, worst in the country.
The issue with WKU is multi-fold.
First, its offensive line has struggled, and its two most premium positions (center, left tackle) have seen a couple of different faces in the lineup.
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Quarterback Rodney Tisdale Jr. was banged up against Georgia and missed the game against Indiana, but looked totally lost against Nevada. His No. 1 receiver, K.D. Hutchinson, hasn't played this year, but Tisdale just hasn't thrived in the new system.
Offensive coordinator Bodie Reeder spent last season leading Middle Tennessee to the 95th-ranked offense in the country. He was rather uninspiring, and MTSU actually cut him loose.
Head coach Tyson Helton's track record of hiring OCs has been impeccable (Rick Bowie, Drew Hollingshead, Ben Arbuckle and Zach Kittley all got poached for bigger jobs), so in the preseason, I wanted to give Helton the benefit of the doubt.
But, man, this has been bad.
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WKU ranks 130th in Net Success Rate (-13.5%), 130th in net Available Yards (-30.6%) and dead last in yards per play margin (-4.46!), and that includes last week's 52-7 rout of Mercyhurst.
I'll wait to make a firm call on the defense since this team has been so obviously outmatched twice, but it's hard to ignore surrendering 323 rushing yards to Nevada.
Things are dire in Bowling Green South.
The initial reaction to New Mexico State after it gave Florida State all it could handle in Week 0 was better than expected. But is it, really?
New Mexico State is getting a nice market bump for one big reason: its Week 0 fight with Florida State was nationally televised, and no one watched its abysmal performance at Hawaii — a 29-19 loss that kicked off at midnight ET, where the offense mustered only 13 points.
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In that game, NMSU gained 50% of available yards and generated a grand total of two explosive plays. Luckily for the Aggies, an 84-yard fumble return touchdown flipped the script on what should have been a 36-13 final score.
David Yost's Air Raid would be a lot more fun here if NMSU rostered a quarterback who was better than bottom-10 in the country annually.
Through four games, Trey Hedden already has 10 turnover-worthy throws and five interceptions. He doesn't have many weapons to work with, and Yost asks a lot of Hedden, as NMSU runs a new play every 23.6 seconds (12th-fastest) and dials up a pass on 60% of its plays (8th).
The Aggie defense doesn't have the horses to make as many substitutions as it likes and, handily out-manned, it has given up way too many explosive passes and hasn't created enough turnovers or sacks.
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Perhaps not a worst-case scenario — this certainly isn't Conference USA 's most disastrous defense — but this is a massive step backward from last year.
Fortunately, flooding rains should be moved out of Las Cruces in time for Thursday's kickoff. Bettors were confident on that (and not confident in either defense), betting the total way up from 52.5 at open all the way to 57.5.
The move makes sense, as both offenses run with tempo, and both defenses have not given us any reason to have confidence thus far.
In four of its first five games this year, WKU played on the road. It traveled to Reno, Athens and Bloomington, returned home for a quick reprieve against Mercyhurst, and now it's back to the road for Las Cruces without a bye.
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All that travel adds up.
We saw a huge adjustment to the total without a huge adjustment to the spread. As a result, New Mexico State's team total had no choice but to rise, too. And it rose too far.
Though both defenses have serious issues, and though both teams run a hot tempo, all of this bullish movement on points neglects to consider one thing: Is either offense any good?
New Mexico State is a pass-heavy team, and WKU has done marginally better (even if just ever-so-slightly so) against the pass. Hedden is the worst FBS QB this defense has faced by a comfortable margin.
The other options have been a pretty-good Carter Jones, Heisman contender Gunner Stockton, and the potent gunslinger Josh Hoover . This is where we see some defensive improvement from WKU, even with all of the lack of rest factored in.
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New Mexico State's offense isn't a unit threatening 30 on an FBS defense this season, with no run game and relying solely on Hedden. I'm attacking the market inefficiency after a major boost to the point total with no check on the Aggie offense.
Pick: New Mexico State Team Total Under 29.5 (Play to 28)
By Joshua Nunn
North Texas has been an impressive team in the first month of the season, as the Mean Green have clearly exceeded preseason expectations.
The defense hung in there for three quarters against Indiana in the opener, and the offense has taken strides over the last three weeks, with quarterback Tayven Jackson making great progress as a passer.
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Jackson is completing 74% of his passes while throwing for 1,187 yards and six touchdowns, and the offensive line has been excellent in preventing negative plays and drive-stopping sacks.
Jahiem White has been explosive as a running back, averaging seven yards per carry with seven rushing scores. White is also one of four offensive players who have caught at least 10 passes this season, helping the Mean Green average 39.5 points per game.
Justin Stevenson, Corri Milliner and Josiah Martin have been reliable receivers, although Martin is dealing with an injury, which leaves his status for this game in question. Tight end Max Reese has taken on a bigger role over the last couple of weeks.
The UNT defense has been strong at home while completely shutting down UNLV and Houston Christian, but the stop unit's performance hasn't traveled well on the road.
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The Mean Green defense has allowed 101 points and 8.3 yards per play in two road games this season. The front has struggled to stop the run, and the pass rush has been largely ineffective away from home.
This is a massive game in the American Conference this week, so UNT will need a solid defensive performance to defeat Tulsa on the road on Thursday night.
Tulsa has completely turned its program around in head coach Tre Lamb's tenure. The Golden Hurricane have significantly upgraded their offensive line and vastly improved their defense compared to previous seasons.
The season-opening win over Oklahoma State certainly turned heads and was followed by victories over Sam Houston and East Texas A&M.
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Sitting at 3-0, the perception of this team was changing as Tulsa began to garner traction as a serious contender in the American. A road loss at Arkansas last week without starting quarterback Baylor Hayes doesn't change that perception for me.
The offense used a strong ground attack with an assertive offensive line to control the line of scrimmage during the opening three-game stretch, with Damari Alston and Trequan Jones splitting carries in the backfield.
Those backs have combined to rush for 409 yards, so the ground attack is a real threat this week against a North Texas team has struggled to defend the run.
The key for Tulsa will be the return of quarterback Baylor Hayes, who has missed the last two games with an injury suffered against Sam Houston. Hayes will be back for this game, and his command of the offense should boost this group's performance.
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The defense has been outstanding all season, and the defensive line has left its mark nearly every week.
Thomas Davis, Kyran Duhon and Dax Collins have multiple sacks, and the pressure they create has made it difficult for opposing offenses to find success.
The Golden Hurricane have benefited from turnovers and drive-stopping negative plays created by the Havoc . This defensive line will have to take over on Thursday night against a strong North Texas offense.
This line opened with Tulsa favored by 2.5 points with a total of 57.5. Money has come in on North Texas with this line creeping toward pick'em status, but I like Tulsa on the moneyline to win this game.
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The North Texas passing attack has surprised everyone this season with Jackson's proficiency at quarterback, but I'm not convinced the explosive plays will come in this game.
Tulsa has an excellent defensive line that will create problems for the UNT signal-caller, and the coverage unit grades out as one of the strongest in the American, per PFF advanced stats.
The Golden Hurricane defense ranks 11th nationally in explosive plays allowed, and with a secondary that doesn't give up big plays, UNT will have to move the ball methodically.
Tulsa frustrated Oklahoma State's offensive attack, and the defense really stepped up in the red zone, something we've seen this unit do all season.
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The Golden Hurricane have allowed touchdowns on just 29% of opponents' red-zone trips and have turned opponents away empty-handed five times. I expect North Texas to settle for field goals in the red zone in this game.
On the other side, the North Texas coverage unit has been prone to giving up big plays in the secondary, and the Tulsa passing game will be more efficient with Hayes back at quarterback.
A couple of deep shots will really open up the rushing lanes, so Tulsa should have success moving the ball on the ground in this game.
The offense should find a way to sustain drives and convert on third down using the rushing attack while keeping the North Texas offense on the sidelines.
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This was a spot I had circled in the preseason as a play-on spot for Tulsa. I like the direction this team is headed and truly believe the Golden Hurricane are a premier team in the American this season.
The defensive line will register drive-stopping Havoc plays against North Texas while continuing its excellent defense in the red zone.
The Mean Green will have to settle for field-goal attempts when they get in close.
The Tulsa offensive line has been successful here in keeping drives alive with the ground attack, so the Golden Hurricane should salt this game away late in the fourth quarter.
Pick: Tulsa ML -115
