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College football Week 6 is here, which means it's time to dive into a couple of underdogs to bet on the moneyline.
Our Group of 6 experts from the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast, Mike Calabrese and Joshua Nunn, came through with picks for Tulsa vs. Navy on Saturday afternoon and Northern Illinois vs. Air Force on Saturday night.
When parlayed together, these two Group of 6 'dogs pay out at over 6-1.
Let's take a look at our Week 6 college football predictionsand NCAAF picks in our Group of 6 moneyline underdog parlay for Saturday, Oct. 10.
Be sure to download the Action Network app for more expert picks and analysis!
Tulsa ML +115 vs. Navy
Northern Illinois ML +260 vs. Air Force
Parlay Odds: +670 ( DraftKings )
By Joshua Nunn
Tulsa ran into a buzzsaw last week, as North Texas reminded everyone it's a legit contender in the American Conference.
UNT has playmakers all over the field. The quarterback play was sharp, Jahiem White was electric, and those explosive plays were impressive. Even so, Tulsa still made plays and had a chance to win.
Tulsa's season is teetering into "must-win" territory, and I expect this offense to have success against a Navy defense that struggles to stop the big play.
Quarterback Baylor Hayes wasn't sharp coming off injury last week, but I think he'll play better this time around.
Navy ranks 114th nationally in Passing Success Rate allowed and 127th in pass explosiveness allowed, so guys like Oran Singleton Jr., Jimmy Calloway and Javon Ross should find space for the Golden Hurricane to register a few explosives.
On the other side, Tulsa's defensive front is more talented than it was a year ago. It saw the option just three times last season, and I expect that defensive line to show up and control the line of scrimmage against a Navy offense that's slipping after three straight losses.
I don't see Navy's ground game being very explosive. The output has been declining, and rotating quarterbacks in Jackson Gutierrez and Braxton Woodson felt jerky against Air Force.
Tulsa is a much better tackling team than UAB or Florida Atlantic. The Golden Hurricane fly to the ball, and that should make life tough for Navy's offense.
Tulsa has the pieces to bounce back offensively and on the line, while Navy has clear vulnerabilities. I like the Golden Hurricane to get back on track in a big way.
Pick: Tulsa ML +115
We've seen signs of life from the Huskies lately, and most of it runs through quarterback Taron Dickens. Over the last two games, he has completed 67% of his passes for 548 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. That volume is real.
The bigger issue has been protection. Dickens has been sacked eight times in the last eight quarters.
That would matter a ton in most games, but Air Force doesn't rush the passer. The Falcons rank 124th in pass rush, per PFF , and they've managed only five sacks against FBS opponents all season. That means Dickens should have time to pick them apart.
On the other side, Air Force is suddenly a lot thinner offensively. Quarterback Liam Szarka isn't available, and this offense looks toothless without him.
Evan Medders will make his first career start, but he has only seven career pass attempts. This isn't a proven QB1 stepping into a rhythm; it's a guy asked to keep the engine running after a Commander-in-Chief's Trophy win, in a pretty sleepy spot against a winless team.
Service academies are disciplined, but that setup screams "letdown."
So, what do we get from that matchup? A Huskies QB who's hot and will likely have time in the pocket against an Air Force team missing its key playmaker and going with an inexperienced passer in a classic trap spot.
I wouldn't sleep on the passing attack here, and I'd be wary of expecting too much out of Air Force's offense.
Pick: Northern Illinois ML +215
