Malik Willis has given fantasy managers almost no reason to start him this season, and Kyle Soppe thinks Week 7 could be the week he pays off. Soppe, a Pro Football Network fantasy analyst, named the Dolphins quarterback, Texans running back Woody Marks and Rams tight end Tyler Higbee as his three Week 7 sleepers on PFN's YouTube channel . All three are long shots he believes can win a matchup.
Willis's numbers explain why he counts as a sleeper. Miami is 0-5. Through his first five games, Willis has completed 56.2% of his passes, last among 33 qualified quarterbacks, for 849 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions, and he has been sacked 14 times. He ranks 29th among quarterbacks in PPR points.
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Soppe's case begins with the calendar. The Dolphins are coming off their Week 6 bye and play the Jets at MetLife Stadium on Sunday. "You would think a quarterback working into a new role would benefit from a little bit of time to prep, right?" he said.
He backed that up with how Willis's season started. Soppe said Willis ranked sixth in yards per attempt from the pocket over Weeks 1 and 2, after a full summer to prepare, and that his production fell off after that. "It's kind of like a game script to open a game," Soppe said. "You start good, then you tail off."
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Willis's running gives him a floor. Soppe said he has scored more than 5.5 rushing fantasy points in three of his last five games. For the season, Willis has 186 yards and two touchdowns on 27 carries, 6.9 yards a carry. Soppe also thinks the passing game has upside, and Willis is not throwing short. According to Next Gen Stats, his average intended air yards of 10.7 are the deepest of 33 qualified quarterbacks.
The matchup matters as much as the extra week of prep. "You've got some rookie play makers on this team, and I don't trust the Jets defense to do much to stop them," Soppe said.
He did not go as far as predicting a top-10 finish, but he left the door open. "Malik Willis wouldn't shock me," Soppe said of a top-10 week. "I'm just saying it could happen."
Soppe sees Marks finishing in the top 15 at running back when Houston hosts the Giants, mostly because of who else is unavailable. He said Jawhar Jordan is out with a quad injury and that Montgomery is expected to miss the game with a groin injury. In the Texans' 34-31 win over Jacksonville in London in Week 6, Marks ran 15 times for 56 yards, and Jordan added six carries for 43 yards and a touchdown. "That leaves Marks kind of unto himself," Soppe said.
He also expects help from the quarterback. C.J. Stroud threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns against the Jaguars, and Soppe argued that a better Stroud keeps defenses from crowding the line of scrimmage, which opens running lanes.
Marks has not been efficient. He is averaging 3.5 yards a carry on 58 attempts, and Next Gen Stats has him at 25 rushing yards below expected, 25th of 40 qualified rushers. Soppe accepts that. "He hasn't had many splash plays over the course of his career, not too worried about it if the volume's going to be there," he said.
He said the Giants rank fourth-worst in the league in pre-contact rush defense, which puts the work on Houston's blockers rather than on Marks. "So, if he's running into space, you don't have to think he's that good to do that," Soppe said.
Soppe said Marks has had at least 15 carries and a couple of catches in each of the last two games, and he expects that to keep going. "I think he makes that three in a row, sneaks into the RB2 conversation this weekend," he said.
Soppe's last pick plays a position where a stream makes the most sense. "These onesie positions are the direction to go for things like this," he said. The Rams are 2-4 and visit the Raiders on Sunday. Soppe called them a Super Bowl favorite that badly needs the game, and he said Las Vegas is trending the wrong way.
He set Higbee's ceiling at TE6. Through six games, Higbee has 24 catches for 246 yards and one touchdown and ranks 19th among tight ends in PPR points.
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Soppe chose Higbee over Parkinson on usage. He said Higbee led Parkinson 30-19 in their most recent game, first calling it routes and then correcting it to snaps, and that he expects Higbee to keep the edge in routes run. "It's Higbee over Parkinson for me," Soppe said.
The receiver room is what makes it a good spot. Soppe said Davante Adams will not play and Puka Nacua is banged up, and he trusts Matthew Stafford to get production out of whoever is left. "So, this is going to be a good spot for this passing game," he said. "Whoever is going to be on the field is going to benefit."
For Soppe, that player is Higbee. He is the tight end to start for the Rams' trip to Las Vegas if you are looking past the usual top tier, with his likely edge in routes over Parkinson as the deciding factor.
This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network .
