Why Hunter Greene will upset Paul Skenes in 2026 NL Cy Young race

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Why Hunter Greene will upset Paul Skenes in 2026 NL Cy Young race

Douglas Fritz, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Mon, Mar 2, 2026 ·

4 min read

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It's clear that the Cincinnati Reds have a strong rotation this season. And manager Terry Francona plans to let them work . And here is why Hunter Greene will upset Paul Skenes in the 2026 NL Cy Young race.

First, this is indeed based on potential. Greene's career high in innings is 150.1, and he only made 19 starts last season. But when he has been on the mound over the past two seasons, the results have often been electric. His ERA has been under 3.00 each year.

Reds SP Hunter Greene primed for big year

The best thing about Greene last year was his improved control. He racked up 132 strikeouts to only 26 walks. If he continues his strike zone dominance, the talent will push him into contention with Skenes.

Greene recently made his Spring Training debut. It wasn't impressive, but the good news for the Reds is that he felt ready , according to MLB.com. That's a positive for any pitcher at this time of the year.

"I feel great," Greene said. "I feel strong. It's obviously early, but I feel like I'm in a good place right now. I was easy with my velo, and I felt like I was just up there playing catch."

His "easy velo" wasn't reflected as easy in the numbers. His four-seam fastball averaged 99.6 mph and maxed out at 101.1 mph. His average fastball last season clocked at 99.4 mph.

Last year, Greene made it onto the fantasy radar as a must-have starter. His first-pitch strike rate of 68.6% reached elite status. And hitters managed only a .192 average against him.

And he's only 26 years old entering the 2026 season. That's a great age to ascend to a prime level . And the Reds' flamethrower should do that, according to Sports Illustrated.

"This draft season, Greene has been treated as a backend SP1 despite never pitching over 150.1 innings in his career," Shawn Childs wrote. "Home runs (1.3 per nine) crept back into his equation last year while finishing with the best command of his career (2.2 walks per nine – 3.3 in his career).

"I thought Greene was a great deal last season, but he paid about 60 cents on the dollar. His reward should outweigh his risk in 2026, especially if he slides in drafts. Possible league winner skill set if he can make 30 starts."

Reds SP Hunter Greene must avoid DL time

He has missed stretches of time with a bruised elbow, groin strain, and hip pain in recent seasons. But Francona said Greene has countered with effort.

"I know this," Francona said. "You'll have a better chance to be durable if you put the work in, which he has. I thought last year, his work was phenomenal. Just continue the progression.

"You don't have a crystal ball. You don't know what happens, physically. But the better position guys can put themselves in, it should help as the season progresses."

Greene said he believes he's on the right track as the Reds' regular season opener is just a few weeks away.

"I think I will be able to leave camp feeling great," he said. "I don't see anything holding me back or anything like that. Just execution of pitches and making sure my stuff is sharp."

Catching Paul Skenes won't be easy

When a guy is expected to have the best season for a pitcher in many years, it's going to be challenging . And Skenes should have a high bar, according to MLB.com.

"Skenes looks like a generational talent and could very well raise his game even more in 2026 and beyond," Brent Maguire wrote. "Ten-plus WAR seasons (using Baseball Reference's version) used to be a little more common for pitchers — there are 121 such seasons — but they have never exactly been common. Zack Greinke last did it in 2009 with 10.4 WAR for the Royals. Randy Johnson (2001-02) and Pedro Martínez (2000) are the only other pitchers in the 21st century to reach that mark."

Rare indeed. Maguire noted that innings limitations make it more difficult. But Skenes posted 7.7 WAR in 187 2/3 innings last year and 5.9 WAR in 133 innings in '24. Give Skenes 200-plus innings, and he could have a shot.

That's what Greene faces in his Cy Young quest. But his talent puts him in the mix.

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