Why Michigan vs. Saint Louis could be March Madness thriller we've been craving

Story by

Story by
Why Michigan vs. Saint Louis could be March Madness thriller we've been craving

Paul Myerberg, USA TODAY · USA TODAY Sports

Sat, Mar 21, 2026 ·

6 min read

About Our Ads

Follow all of Saturday's NCAA Tournament second round games with USA TODAY Sports' live updates .

BUFFALO, NY — The connection between Michigan and Saint Louis starts with coaches Dusty May and Josh Schertz, who once met up in Boca Raton, Florida, with plans to quickly watch film but ended up spending 10 hours talking shop inside May's former office at Florida Atlantic.

"He's an absolute basketball junkie," May said. "He's a savant. I've learned so much from him."

They are coaches cut from a similar cloth: May and Schertz are film-chewing basketball devotees who started as head coaches on lower levels — FAU for May and Lincoln Memorial and Indiana State for Schertz — before ascending to Saturday's second-round matchup in the Midwest region between the No. 1 Wolverines and No. 9 Billikens.

And they have constructed two teams built in similar ways, with similar styles and a desire to set the pace with fast-tempo offensive playbooks designed to push the score up, up and up.

"They kind of play like us, to be honest with you," Michigan guard Roddy Gayle Jr. said. "Very similar to us. Honestly, I look at it like, how do we guard ourselves?"

Added forward Yaxel Lendeborg, "We really run the exact same way. I feel like that's a blessing and a curse for us."

Iowa State Cyclones fans cheer against the Kentucky Wildcats during the first half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Enterprise Center on March 22, 2026 in St Louis, Missouri.

(Jamie Squire, Getty Images)

Kansas Jayhawks cheerleaders perform before a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the St. John's Red Storm at Viejas Arena on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, Calif.
(Denis Poroy, Imagn Images)

Nebraska's Berke Buyuktuncel celebrates with fans following a second-round game in the NCAA men's basketball tournament between Nebraska Cornhuskers and Vanderbilt Commodores at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City on March 21, 2026.

(SARAH PHIPPS, THE OKLAHOMAN via USA TODAY NETWORK)

Arkansas Razorbacks cheerleaders in the second half against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Ore.

(Troy Wayrynen, Imagn Images)

VCU Rams fans react after a 3-pointer by Terrence Hill Jr. #6 of the VCU Rams in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 19, 2026 in Greenville, SC.
(Jared C. Tilton, Getty Images)

Howard Bison cheerleaders perform during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the Michigan Wolverines at Keybank Center on Mar 19, 2026 in Buffalo, NY.
(Mark Konezny, Imagn Images)

BYU Cougars cheerleader in the second half against the Texas Longhorns during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center on Mar 19, 2026 in Portland, Ore.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)

Former North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Roy Williams is seen in the crowd against the VCU Rams in the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on Mar 19, 2026 in Greenville, SC.
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)

Texas A&M Aggies cheerleaders during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center on March 19, 2026 in Oklahoma City.
(William Purnell, Imagn Images)

Texas Longhorns band in the first half against the BYU Cougars during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center on Mar 19, 2026 in Portland.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)

St. John's Red Storm mascot Johnny Thunder mixes with players prior to taking the court during practice day ahead of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 19, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)

A Texas Christian University Horned Frogs cheerleader practices before the game during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 19, 2026 in Greenville, SC.

(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)

The High Point Panthers fans cheer during the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the Wisconsin Badgers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Or.
(Troy Wayrynen, Imagn Images)

The High Point Panthers cheerleaders react during the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the Wisconsin Badgers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Or.
(Troy Wayrynen, Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images)

The North Dakota State Bison mascot and cheerleaders pose for a photo before the game against the Michigan State Spartans during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center on March 19, 2026 in Buffalo, NY
(Gregory Fisher, Imagn Images)

Nebraska Cornhuskers fans cheer after defeating the Troy Trojans during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center on March 19, 2026 in Oklahoma City.
(Alonzo Adams, Imagn Images)

The Wisconsin Badgers mascot performs during a time out during the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the High Point Panthers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)

A view of Buddy the Street Dog as Queens University of Charlotte Royals guard Yoav Berman talks to the media during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Enterprise Center in St. Louis on March 19, 2026.
(Jeff Le, Imagn Images)

The High Point Panthers band performs prior to a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the Wisconsin Badgers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Or.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)

High Point Panthers fans cheer prior to a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the Wisconsin Badgers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Or.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)

The Wisconsin Badgers cheerleaders preform during the first half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the High Point Panthers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Or.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)

The South Florida Bulls mascot performs during the second half against the Louisville Cardinals during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center on March 19, 2026 in Buffalo, NY.
(Mark Konezny, Imagn Images)

The Texas Christian University Horned Frogs cheerleaders perform in the first half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 19, 2026 in Greenville, SC.
(Jim Dedmon, Imagn Images)

The Troy Trojans mascot dances on the floor during the second half against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center on March 19, 2026 in Oklahoma City.
(William Purnell, William Purnell-Imagn Images)

The UCF Knights band performs during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena on March 19, 2026 in Philadelphia.
(Bill Streicher, Imagn Images)

Nebraska Cornhuskers cheerleaders perform during the second half against the Troy Trojans during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center on March 19, 2026 in Oklahoma City.
(William Purnell, Imagn Images)

A Wisconsin Badgers cheerleader performs during the first half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the High Point Panthers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Or.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)

The Ohio State Buckeyes cheerleaders perform in the second half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 19, 2026 in Greenville, SC.
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)

Akron Zips fans in the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 20, 2026 in Tampa, Fla.
(Matt Pendleton, Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images)

Texas Tech Red Raiders cheerleaders in the first half against the Akron Zips during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 20, 2026 in Tampa, Fla.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images)

Santa Clara Broncos fans react to game play against the Kentucky Wildcats during the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Enterprise Center on March 20, 2026 in St. Louis, MO.
(Jeff Le, Jeff Le-Imagn Images)

Akron Zips cheerleaders and mascot in the second half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 20, 2026 in Tampa, Fla.
(Matt Pendleton, Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images)

Wright State Raiders fans celebrate after a Wright State Raiders guard TJ Burch (22) scores during the second half against the Virginia Cavaliers during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena on March 20, 2026 in Philadelphia, PA.
(Bill Streicher, Bill Streicher-Imagn Images)

Hofstra Pride cheerleaders in the second half against the Alabama Crimson Tide during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 20, 2026 in Tampa, Fla.
(Matt Pendleton, Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images)

Garth Noble of the Louisville pep band is amped at the 2026 NCAA Women's March Madness basketball tournament at the KFC Yum Center In Louisville, Kentucky. March 21, 2026.
(Matt Stone/Courier Journal)

Michigan head coach Dusty May high-fives players after 95-72 win over Saint Louis at the NCAA Tournament Second Round at KeyBank Center in Buffalo on Saturday, March 21, 2026.
(Junfu Han, USA TODAY NETWORK)

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish band and spirit squad cheer during the first round of the NCAA women's basketball tournament against the Fairfield Stags at Ohio State's Schottenstein Center in Columbus on March 21, 2026.
(Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch)

There is almost no doubt that Saturday's matchup will be among the most frantic and high scoring in this year's tournament. Look for fireworks when Michigan meets Saint Louis, and look for each team to chase the 100-point mark in deciding which will advance out of Buffalo and into the second weekend.

"We have a lot of things in common," said Michigan center Aday Mada. "We both know what kind of shots we want. We have a good efficiency on offense. We play at a high pace. I think we are pretty similar teams."

The numbers tell the story:

Saint Louis ranks eight nationally with 87.7 points per game. Michigan ranks 10th at 87.2 points.
The Billikens and Wolverines were two of the three teams to score 100 points in Thursday's tournament action , along with No. 3 Illinois against Pennsylvania.
The Billikens rank fifth in field goal percentage (51.2%) and Michigan ranks sixth (51%).
Michigan is fourth in assists per game (18.7) and Saint Louis is seventh (18.6).
The Billikens rank 19th in the country in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom.com, while Michigan ranks 22nd.
Both offenses love to attack the rim. Saint Louis scored 66 points in the paint in routing No. 8 Georgia 102-77, while Michigan dropped 52 points in the paint in a 101-80 win against No. 16 Howard.

But the teams are not quite the same, and it's in these differences — and in how each responds to the other's subtle advantages — that the matchup will be decided.

Saint Louis is far more adept from 3-point range, and much more willing to let things fly from deep. The Billikens are second nationally in 3-point percentage (39.8%) and 12th in long-range makes per game (10.9). On the other hand, Michigan are 114th in attempts (25.1) and 85th in 3-pointers made per game (9.1).

The Billikens are also even more effective in transition than the Wolverines. Saint Louis averages 16.9 fastbreak points per game, sixth in the country, while Michigan ranks 78th at 12.4 points per game on the break.

"If it gets to a game where it's like a shootout, then we might not get the edge on that," Lendeborg said. "Because that's what they like to do. So we're going to have to do the best we can to run them off the 3-point line and make them finish over our size."

That's easier said than done — just ask Georgia, which wilted early in its blowout loss and was looking for the exits before the end of the first half.

But the Wolverines do have two built-in advantages. One is the team's obvious edge in talent, with former top-ranked recruits such as point guard Elliott Cadeau and two potential NBA draft lottery picks in Lendeborg and forward Morez Johnson Jr., who had a team-leading 21 points against Howard.

Michigan's Yaxel Lendeborg looks to pass the ball during the first-round NCAA Tournament game against Howard at KeyBank Center in Buffalo on March 19, 2026.

Another is experience with facing an up-tempo offense: Michigan defends its own scheme every day in practice, at minimum giving the Wolverines the stamina to handle the Billikens' frenetic pace.

"It's going to be easier for us because we're going to defend things that we're used to defense every day in practice," Mada said. "But it's going to be a tough game, because they're really, really good and really talented."

That goes both ways, though, since Saint Louis practices against the same style. And there's no doubting the Billikens' confidence after rebounding from a 4-4 close to the regular season.

"We're so talented offensively, we can play with anybody," Saint Louis forward Brady Dunlap said.

Michigan players pinpointed the "extremely important" key, said Gayle, of setting the tone early and getting off to a strong start. Saint Louis never trailed against Georgia and led by 14 points with seven minutes left in the first half, eventually pushing that edge to 17 points at the break and as much as 40 points in the second half.

On the other hand, the Wolverines were unable to put down Howard until about six minutes into the second half. The Bison made 10 3-pointers in the first half, and trailed 50-48 after the first possession out of the locker room.

Controlling the flow of this potential shootout would play into the Wolverines' most discernable advantage: a defense that ranks among the best in the country. Michigan is second in field goal defense (38.5%), third in blocks per game (5.9) and sixth in defensive rebounds per game (29.0).

In the end, Michigan will do its thing on offense, and so will Saint Louis. Given that neither team is likely to be budged off its preferred style, whether the Wolverines advance back to the Sweet 16 might come down to whether they can get the key stops that will mean the difference in a game destined to be among the most explosive in this year's bracket.

"We've got to lead with our defense," Lendeborg said. "We've got to be disruptive. We've got to do the best that we can to kind of knock them down a little bit and play in transition like we always do. If we can do that, then we should be set."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Michigan vs Saint Louis a March Madness thriller waiting to happen

Mobilize your Website

View Site in Mobile | Classic

Share by:

Why Michigan vs. Saint Louis could be March Madness thriller we've been craving

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities