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Why Rangers should have some concern about worrisome metrics for defensemen
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- Why Rangers should have some concern about worrisome metrics for defensemen
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Through 11 games of the 2026-27 season, there's been a lot to like about the New York Rangers' defensive structure and performance. Their 2.18 goals allowed per contest ranks fourth in the NHL, and their 7-1 loss to the New Jersey Devils on Thursday accounts for nearly a third of their 24 goals allowed.
The revamped Rangers are 7-3-1 after their 5-2 victory over the struggling Anaheim Ducks , which improved their home-ice record to a perfect 6-0-0 at Madison Square Garden.
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A closer look, however, does reveal at least one concerning area that could indicate their early-season defensive stinginess could be headed for a correction as the sample size grows larger.
The numbers concern the Rangers defensemen, a group that looks markedly different with three new regulars after general manager Chris Drury's active offseason to improve the D corps. While the newcomers have so far received positive reviews, given the team's strong start defensively, underlying metrics imply that the improvement might not be as drastic as it seems.
Rangers' new-look D isn't driving positive possession
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New York's bottom two defense pairings, comprised of Sean Durzi and Marcus Pettersson on the second pair, and Alberts Smits and Braden Schneider on the third, are saddled with statistics that show opponents to be dominating possession at 5-on-5 when they're on the ice.
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Durzi and Pettersson were acquired from the Utah Mammoth and Vancouver Canucks, respectively, on July 1 as Drury sought to construct a more substantial second blue-line pair. Pettersson brought with him a reputation as a relentlessly solid, fundamentally sound player in his own zone, and Durzi is known as a puck-mover who could help the Rangers improve on defensive zone exits – an area where they've struggled for years.
While the pair seems to be passing the eye test, data shows something different. Durzi and Pettersson own a 42.9 expected goal share 5v5, per Natural Stat Trick . Opponents are out-chancing the Rangers 79-73 with the two on the ice, including 35-24 in the high-danger chances category – the latter which often is one of the clearest indicators of whether a team wins or loses.
The good news is that Durzi and Pettersson turned in an excellent effort Monday, posting a 62.4 percent expected goal share and helped the Rangers out-score the Ducks 3-0 when they were on at 5-on-5, while holding a 9-5 edge in scoring chances.
One game against an overmatched and exhausted opponent does not a season make, however, and the worry for the Rangers is that the pair's overall numbers so far should perhaps not be a surprise. Both players' effect on possession is trending downward over multiple seasons. Pettersson, who played for current Rangers coach Mike Sullivan with the Pittsburgh Penguins for several seasons, recorded eight straight seasons with an individual expected goal share above 50 percent, from 2018-25. However, after recording a robust 55.2 mark in 2024-25 between the Penguins and Canucks, Pettersson dropped to a 44.7 mark last season.
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Drury gambled on the idea that Pettersson's possession numbers suffered because he played on a bad Vancouver team in 2025-26, and that a bounce-back with a better Rangers roster was a reasonable assumption. However, Pettersson is at 44.3 individually this season. The story is similar for his new defense partner.
Durzi posted a 55.4 expected goal share with the Mammoth in 2024-25, then dropped to a still-strong 52.2 last season. His 45.3 mark in 2026-27, however, would easily be the worst of his career over a full season, and, like Pettersson, represents a second consecutive season of declining positive effect on possession.
Rangers should have some level of concerns about metrics for Smits-Schneider third pair
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The metrics are even more cringe-worthy when it comes to the third pair of Smits and Schneider. Smits, the 18-year-old rookie, stirs the imagination with a mature game and physical tools that led to the Rangers selecting him fifth overall in the 2026 NHL Draft and easily making the team out of training camp. The encouraging signs are there . A deeper dive into Smits' pairing with the young veteran Schneider, however, makes one wince.
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The duo possesses a 40.0 expected goal share 5v5, with opponents outchancing the Blueshirts 64-54 when they're on at even strength – albeit only by a 31-28 margin in the high-danger category.
When it comes to this pairing, none of the above should be shocking. Smits is a teenager, and Schneider never drove positive possession in his six NHL seasons. He posted a 43.3 individual expected goal share in 82 games in 2025-26, and didn't reach 50 percent in any season.
Even the Rangers stalwart top pair from last season, Adam Fox and Vladislav Gavrikov, struggles to control possession this season. After posting a 58.5 expected goal share and dominating scoring chances for and against in their first season together in 2025-26 – for a last-place team, no less – the duo dipped through 11 games this season. Like most of their teammates, the pair turned in a big performance against the Ducks, with a 77.0 expected goal share and six high-danger chances for to one against.
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Fox and Gavrikov, though, needed almost all of that to move above a 50 percent goal share for the season, as they're now at 50.6. The duo came into the game with a 47.9 expected goal share, and they remain underwater in scoring chances with a 76-64 deficit. Fox and Gavrikov are positive in high-danger chances at 32-24.
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So with all three defensive pairs mostly failing to tilt the ice toward the opposing net this season, why are the Rangers off to an excellent start defensively? A big part of the answer lies in an obvious buy-in to Sullivan's system in Season 2. The Blueshirts are clearly spending less time in their own zone – but that might be due in no small part to the forwards coming back defensively, and not enhanced proficiency from the new-look blue line.
"A big part of our defending is our forwards reloading (getting back to defend)," Durzi said postgame Monday . "I thought they did a great job tonight.
" … We know how important it is to check well, defend well, and how that leads to offense and I thought we did a great job."
The Rangers are largely outstanding at providing forward support on defense, with opponents generating fewer odd-man rushes and having a much tougher time establishing prolonged cycles in the Blueshirts zone than last season. It seems reasonable to conclude that the defensemen getting more help is compensating for the fact that the three regular blue-line pairings are struggling on their own merits.
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And that commitment of the forwards to Sullivan's system might be providing even further insulation for a group of defensemen trying to find their footing. The coach's philosophy relies on a heavy, relentless forecheck not just as a consistent method of generating offense, but effectively creating defense by forcing opponents to spend plenty of time and energy defending in their own zone. Most notably, Rangers forwards J.T. Miller , Tye Kartye , Will Cuylle and Alexis Lafreniere are wreaking havoc down low and along the walls in the offensive zone so far, just as Sullivan desires.
"We had numbers back a lot," Sullivan said after the win Monday . "I thought we played an aggressive game, but we did it in a responsible way, and I think that's when our group's at its best."
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The rout at the hands of the Devils, though, also illustrated how critical that approach is for these Rangers. Off to yet another strong start that's the hallmark of this young season, New York's effective forecheck hemmed New Jersey's talented roster into its own zone for almost all of the first period. A bad turnover by Miller, however, was converted into a goal by Evan Rodrigues in the final minute. The Devils grabbed the momentum in the second period and scored four times, with the Rangers looking discombobulated and lost in the defensive zone.
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Once the forecheck stalled and led to an overall breakdown of the system – aided, it should be noted, by an uncharacteristically off game by young goaltender Dylan Garand – the Rangers were exposed defensively.
Could the unsightly possession metrics of their defensemen indicate that the Rangers early-season stinginess isn't as impressive as it appears? Maybe. The decline in Petterson's and Durzi's numbers aren't new, and the struggles of Smits and Schneider were to be expected. Even if Fox and Gavrikov fully return to form, one high-performing defensive duo isn't enough – which is why Drury tried to correct the problem over the summer.
Switching up pairings could be a solution if defense's struggles become an issue
If the Rangers – who ended their first two-game losing streak of the season Monday – go into a prolonged defensive and subsequent overall slump at some point, there's evidence that changing the defense pairings might yield positive results. Though the sample sizes are very limited, Gavrikov's expected goal share in just over 45 minutes at 5-on-5 without Fox is 66.9. For his part, Fox is at 47.0 in 30 minutes without Gavrikov, though that number was at 56.1 before Monday's game.
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It's just as stark for Durzi and Pettersson. Durzi is at 60.9 in 24 minutes without Pettersson, who boasts a 52.2 mark in 33 minutes without Durzi. While Drury acquired both players with the hope they would easily jell into the team's new second pair, the time may come when that idea needs to be abandoned.
Schneider, in nearly 37 minutes without Smits, boasts a gaudy 63.1 expected goal share at 5-on-5. Smits is at 41.6 without Schneider, but that's still better than their combined 40.0 mark.
Off to the fast start and with plenty of positive signs surrounding the team that weren't there last season amidst a 3-5-2 stumble out of the gate, perhaps it's too early for the Rangers to focus on possession metrics that could improve as the team's confidence continues to rise. Those metrics, however, likely need to trend upward for the Rangers to continue their winning ways over the long haul. The club's overall expected goal share is 46.9 percent – 22nd in the NHL.
Garand is playing well in taking over in the wake of star goalie Igor Shesterkin going down for the season, but he remains largely unproven. Depending heavily upon a player with 10 games of NHL experience to bail them out of poor defensive efforts – as the Blueshirts often do with Shesterkin – might not be a sustainable formula for success.
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The Rangers are rolling. If the defensemen don't raise their level of play, however, games like the lopsided defeat to the Devils could become more commonplace – and what looks like a promising season could go the way of the Blueshirts' last two, which ended with them watching the playoffs on TV.
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