If BYU's second season in the Big 12 taught us anything, it is that predicting how the league race will go is a futile exercise.
Teams that were supposed to be good weren't, and teams that were supposed to struggle — such as BYU — rose to the top of the standings . The finish was almost exactly the opposite of predictions, as BYU, Arizona State, Colorado and Iowa State tied for the regular-season championship with 7-2 records (only Iowa State was picked to finish in the top half of the league, among those schools) and expected contenders such as Utah, Arizona and Oklahoma State won a combined four conference games.
So any examination of BYU's league schedule in its third season in the Big 12, a schedule that was released Tuesday morning , has to begin with the caveat that we really don't know on Feb. 4 whether it will be extra difficult, fairly easy or somewhere in between.
Speaking of in-between, the biggest shocker from the nine-game announcement is that BYU and Utah won't play the rivalry game in November as a regular-season ender.
Rather, the Utes and Cougars will square off on Oct. 18 in Provo, right in the middle of the season. That's a bummer. Sure, it is BYU's homecoming game, but homecoming games are not a big deal anymore — even in Provo.
Looking on the positive side, at least the weather should be more favorable in October along the Wasatch Front. And the in-state game should get a prime TV slot.
Last year, the game was played at 8:30 p.m. on Nov. 9 in Salt Lake City, which wasn't optimal. But it was better than this. The only true rivalry game in the Big 12 to be played on either Nov. 28 or Nov. 29 will be the Territorial Cup pitting Arizona State and Arizona. That's a big fail on the part of the league.
The Baylor-TCU rivalry game is also on Oct. 18.
Hey Brett Yormark, play the rivalry games on rivalry weekend, and forget about spreading them out in an effort to provide compelling games weekly for the television partners.
Coincidentally, the Big 12 televised the schedule reveal and had Chief Football and Competition Officer Scott Draper on the show to discuss the schedule, but Draper was never asked the question that was on everybody's mind: Why not play more rivalry games on rivalry weekend?
When the Wildcats are facing the Sun Devils in Tempe, BYU will be hosting UCF and Utah will be playing at Kansas.
For BYU fans, the other aspect of the schedule release that is not optimal is that the first of two byes for the Cougars will come in Week 3. That's way too early. It comes after the Cougars host Portland State and Stanford at LaVell Edwards Stadium and gives them two weeks to prepare for that cross-country trip to play a Group of Five foe, East Carolina.
There are many that believe BYU athletic director Tom Holmoe should have bought his way out of that game against the Pirates in Greenville, N.C., but he didn't. East Carolina leads the series 2-1, and has won the last two matchups — 27-24 in Provo in 2022 and 33-17 in North Carolina in 2017.
BYU's second bye week comes in Week 10, after the Cougars play at Iowa State on Oct. 25, and before they play at Texas Tech on Nov. 8. Optimally, the bye would come after the BYU-Utah game on Oct. 18.
Why?
Remember what happened last November, after the Cougars edged the Utes 22-21 in Salt Lake City? Both teams played uninspired football the following week, with BYU losing 17-13 at home to Kansas and Utah losing 49-24 at Colorado.
How difficult is this league schedule for BYU? It's hard to tell at this point, but generally it does not appear insurmountable. The toughest games seemingly start with that mid-October game against the Utes — who will surely have revenge on their minds after the way last November's game went — and continue from there.
The Oct. 25 game at Iowa State, the Nov. 8 game at Texas Tech and the Nov. 15 game at home against TCU — which always gives BYU fits — mark the most brutal stretch of the 2025 slate. Five of BYU's opponents played in bowl games last year: Colorado, West Virginia, Iowa State, Texas Tech and TCU. Three of those are away games.
All told, BYU's nine conference opponents were a combined 40-41 in Big 12 games last year.
Sept. 27 — at Colorado:Speaking of revenge games for BYU's opponents, this rematch of BYU's 36-14 win over the Buffaloes in the Alamo Bowl has "get-them-back" written all over it for Coach Prime's club. The bad news for CU is that Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter aren't walking through that door again. Then again, their presence in San Antonio in late December didn't do much, either.
Oct. 4 — vs. West Virginia:The Mountaineers make their first-ever trip to Provo with new coach Rich Rodriguez for a Friday night affair at LaVell Edwards Stadium to kick off general conference weekend. For BYU, it is a chance to pay the visitors back for that 37-7 drubbing in Morgantown in 2023.
Oct. 11 — at Arizona:Another winnable road game for the Cougars, although Arizona should be better in coach Brent Brennan's second season in Tucson. BYU can't get caught looking ahead, though, because the Utah game is up next.
Oct. 18 — vs. Utah:The rivalry game needs no extra juice, even in the middle of October, but gets some after the controversy that erupted last November at Rice-Eccles. Utah, which went 2-7 in its first season in the Big 12, brings former Cougar quarterback Jason Beck to Provo as its new offensive coordinator. More importantly, New Mexico transfer quarterback Devon Dampier is the kind of dual-threat QB that has given BYU fits in the past. Jay Hill's defense will be put to the test.
Oct. 25 — at Iowa State:The Cyclones finished last season ranked No. 15 in the AP Top 25 and will play in the Big 12's first-ever Week Zero conference game, facing Kansas State in Dublin, Ireland, in the Aer Lingus College Football Classic, on Aug. 23. Coach Matt Campbell's crew will be well-rested for BYU's visit in late October, however, given that the Cyclones will be idle on Oct. 18 when BYU tries to empty the tank against Utah in what is always an emotionally draining game for both teams.
It will be BYU's first trip to Ames since 1974. A lot of BYU fans like to make one road trip a season; this one is a good candidate, although the weather in late October in Ames can be dicey.
Nov. 8 — at Texas Tech:BYU will be coming off its second bye when it plays in Lubbock, Texas, for the first time since 1940. The Red Raiders will be picked to finish high in the Big 12 in 2025, partly because quarterback Behren Morton is back. There's a bit of bad blood between BYU and Tech, after the Cougars' 27-14 win in 2023 in Provo was marred by what became known as Spitgate — allegations that several Tech players spat at BYU players in the contest.
Nov. 15 — vs. TCU:The Horned Frogs have had BYU's number as of late, and will be making their first trip to Provo since the teams were rivals in the Mountain West Conference. TCU went 6-3 in league last year, 9-4 overall, and quarterback Josh Hoover is one of the better returning signal-callers in the Big 12. This game ends a difficult four-game stretch for BYU, and will be the first game at LES in nearly a month.
Nov. 22 — at Cincinnati:After playing at Utah on Nov. 1, Cincy has a bye, then hosts Arizona and BYU on consecutive weekends. The Bearcats will be picked in the bottom half of the league, but are always dangerous at home.
Nov. 29 — vs. UCF:Making the outfit from Orlando play in Provo in late November is downright cruel. There could be a 40-50 degree temperature difference from sunny Florida to the mountains of Utah, but that's the hand the Knights have been dealt under first-year coach Scott Frost. He might even see snow.
BYU head coach Kalani Sitake celebrates a punt return for a touchdown by Parker Kingston (11) during the Valero Alamo Bowl in San Antonio on Saturday, Dec. 28, 2024. | Jeffrey D. Allred, Deseret News
