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Cleveland Guardians 2024 bold predictions for Jose Ramirez, Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie
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- Cleveland Guardians 2024 bold predictions for Jose Ramirez, Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie
Breathe it in and the start the grill — baseball is back .
Opening Day , which really should be a National holiday if we're being honest, begins across the country Thursday afternoon.
Major League Baseball's decision makers, in their infinite wisdom , will make Guardians and Boston Red Sox fans wait until 10 p.m. EST to see the first pitch of the seasons for their respective teams.
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Shane Bieber will take the mound for the Guardians in what very could be his last Opening Day in a Cleveland uniform, as he enters a crucial season for both his future and the team's next path forward. But you'll have to wait until 10 p.m. to see it, so, brew that extra cup of coffee (or I guess these days, have an extra K-Cup available).
Guardians 2024 MLB season preview: The top 5 things that need to go right to make playoffs
Alas, the season of grilled hot dogs and peanuts and the crack of the bat are here.
And here are some bold predictions for the Guardians' 2024 season .
First Guardians player to hit a home run this season?
Let's go with Josh Naylor , who always wants the smoke, as he so famously has said whilst giving Chicago baseball fans nightmares.
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Now, there's a lefty ( Alex Wood ) on the mound tonight for the A's, so Ramon Laureano might be the best value here. But let's pencil in an eighth-inning, two-run homer for Naylor. How's that for specific?
How many home runs will Jose Ramirez hit?
Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) smiles as he takes the field in the first inning during a MLB spring training baseball game against the Cincinnati Reds, Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024, at Goodyear Ballpark in Goodyear, Ariz.
Jose Ramirez is the safe bet to lead the Guardians in home runs, assuming he stays healthy. The question is how many? He hit 36 in 2021, but that number dropped to 29 in 2022 and 24 last year. I'll say that he rebounds a bit and rounds the bases 28 times.
That would place him j ust ahead of Albert Belle for second on the franchise's all-time list by the end of the season.
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Over/under 3.50 ERA for Shane Bieber ?
Mar 12, 2024; Surprise, Arizona, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Shane Bieber (57) bats against the Texas Rangers during the second inning at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Under.
Shane Bieber has dealt with injuries and velocity issues for most of the last three seasons. But he appears to be healthy now, it looks like he regained some power after working with Driveline ( which also means a better spin rate for his curveball, which is the key pitch for him in 2024 ) and he's now in a contract year. Everything points to Bieber having a pretty strong year.
The biggest question, though, is if all of Bieber's innings in 2024 come with the Guardians. The odds are good that if he's pitching well, and the Guardians don't get off to a good start, dealing Bieber could be a move the Guardians can't pass on this summer.
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Over/Under 180 innings for Triston McKenzie ?
Under, and this might be one of the most important factors for the Guardians this season.
Triston McKenzie is a needed, and very talented starting pitcher — he's just also one that comes with some injury concerns after a UCL injury last season popped up. If he can avoid the IL in 2024, it'll be a huge win for the Guardians even before factoring in how effective he can be.
Over/under 180 at-bats in the majors for Myles Straw ?
Under.
Myles Straw's offensive free fall since signing his long-term extension has only seemed to pick up speed as the days pass. He'll start the season in Triple-A after the Guardians waived him hoping somebody else would claim him. There's a very good chance he sees the majors in 2024, but he might not see too many at-bats unless he shows a few degrees of improvement at the plate.
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Tyler Freeman , Estevan Florial , Ramon Laureano and others could all see time in center field. Straw's most useful role might be as a defensive replacement or a pinch runner.
Who is the Guardians' Joe Flacco (the surprise player who helps them contend for a playoff spot)?
Let's go with Kyle Manzardo, or the guy who looked like "Wade Boggs" to Guardians hitting coach Chris Valaika earlier this spring.
The Guardians don't have the best track record when it comes to developing hitters, so the Aaron Civale trade at least year's trade deadline (which came with the Guardians not far from first place) was too good of a proposal for them to pass up adding a top-100 hitter to Triple-A Columbus.
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Manzardo at some point could play an extensive role for a Guardians lineup that needs a boost — or two.
Who is this year's breakout player?
Oh, you asked for two boosts for the lineup? OK. The answer here is Chase DeLauter .
Spring training stats are not everything, so even though DeLauter's .520 average and .1640 OPS this spring are eye-popping, they aren't the only reason for his inclusion in this answer. DeLauter is a corner outfielder who has picked up momentum as he's made his way through the Guardians minor league system.
Once he has some experience under his belt at Triple-A, there's a good chance he makes the jump to the majors this spring. And there, he might finally give the Guardians an answer in right field.
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How many bases will Steven Kwan , Jose Ramirez and Andres Gimenez combine to steal in 2024?
80.
That trio stole 79 a year ago (Gimenez 30, Ramirez 28, Kwan 21). I think Kwan has a bit of a rebound when it comes to his on-base percentage, so let's bump up the number by a grand total of one (how bold of me, I know). All three should get over 20 pretty easily, so while it's possible Ramirez doesn't run quite as much as progresses over 30, Kwan should make up for that.
Over/under 81.5 wins for the Guardians?
I think the Guardians and the Minnesota Twins have some similarities, in that both have relatively high ceilings but low floors due to some extra injury (and depth) concerns compared to most teams.
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If the Twins stay healthy, they could easily cruise to a division title. But if Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis again can't stay healthy, and the pitching staff (now without Sonny Gray ) runs into trouble, it could open up the division pretty quickly.
The Guardians have a talented rotation, a strong back-end to the bullpen and a young lineup that could take a step forward (and needs to). But if Ramirez were to get hurt, or McKenzie runs into another elbow injury, things could also fall apart in Cleveland.
Let's go just under and say 80 wins in Stephen Vogt's first season at the helm . The Guardians have beaten expectations with a young roster before, and the potential is there for them to go on a run, get some help for the lineup and unseat the Twins. But if they get off to a bad start, it could mean Bieber's exit via a trade this summer, and they can ill afford injuries that are difficult to avoid.
Ryan Lewis can be reached at rlewis1@gannett.com. Read more about the Guardians at www.beaconjournal.com/sports/cleveland-guardians. Follow him on Threads at @ByRyanLewis .
This article originally appeared on Akron Beacon Journal: Bold predictions for Cleveland Guardians 2024 season
