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Cleveland Guardians standings, playoff race odds and predictions
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- Cleveland Guardians standings, playoff race odds and predictions
CLEVELAND — The race is on. And after months and months of a grinding schedule, the finish line is in sight.
The Guardians have led the division by as many as nine games. Then it was briefly lost when they were tied with the Kansas City Royals, who owned the tiebreaker.
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A recent hot streak in Kansas City has again afforded the Guardians a little breathing room in what is a three-team race. With 23 games remaining entering Wednesday, Cleveland led the Minnesota Twins by 4.5 games and Royals by 5.5 games.
Here's a breakdown of where the American League Central race stands with less than a month to go.
Guardians, Twins, Royals atop American League Central standings, in playoff race
As of Wednesday, the Guardians (80-59) had become clear favorites to win the AL Central. That is in part due to not only the lead they've opened up over the last week while the Royals have lost seven in a row and the Twins have been treading water, at best, after doing nothing at the trade deadline. It's also in part due to the Guardians maintaining their divisional lead through the toughest portion of their schedule.
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For purely entertainment purposes, the Guardians are at -550 to win the Central, according to the MGM Sportsbook. The Twins are at +525, and the Royals are expected to keep free falling at +1400.
That means a $100 bet on the Guardians to win the division would net you only $18.18 in winnings. In the simplest terms possible: they're heavy favorites, and to a much larger degree than a week ago.
What is the Guardians' magic number?
The Guardians' magic number was down to 20 entering Wednesday's game. The magic number decreases by one every time the Guardians win or when the second-place team, currently the Twins, lose.
Cleveland Guardians catcher Bo Naylor (23) hits a single Monday against the Royals in Kansas City.
What are the Guardians' playoff odds?
There's even better news for the Guardians at this point in the season.
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A clear top-six in the standings has emerged, and six teams make the playoffs — three division winners, three wild card teams.
The Guardians would, of course, much prefer to win the division and have the advantages that come with that — likely a first-round bye if they stay ahead of the Houston Astros in the West, along with home field advantage early on.
But they also know that, barring a disastrous free fall over the final three weeks, they'll be playing baseball in October.
Cleveland's odds of at least making the playoffs are at a pretty clear 99.8 percent, according to FanGraphs . Now, at one point last season, the Texas Rangers were considered essentially buried, and they went on to win it all. But it would take something borderline historic for the Guardians to miss the playoffs entirely.
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The AL playoff picture is pretty secure, other than the seeding. The Guardians, Twins, Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Astros all are given at least a 95.5 percent chance to make the playoffs. The Royals are at 77.7 percent to make it, on the off chance their descent continues and they are caught by either the Boston Red Sox or Seattle Mariners, two teams around the .500 mark.
Guardians starting pitcher Alex Cobb delivers a second-inning pitch against the Pirates, Sept. 1, 2024, in Cleveland.
Guardians' top factors in playoff race: Rotation, health
The starting rotation remains the Guardians' No. 1 variable in all of this. Alex Cobb nearly threw a perfect game and has joined Matthew Boyd to help stabilize the rotation as two veteran pitchers, and it was badly needed.
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Gavin Williams has been up-and-down since missing the first several months of the season. Tanner Bibee has been solid. Ben Lively has given the Guardians a tremendous return on investment after the team took a flier on him this offseason.
Those five have managed to help turn the tide after a recent offensive slump, and they are a major reason why the Guardians are still looking down on the rest of the division.
Health is always crucial, but the Guardians being in a position of all but knowing they'll at least be in the playoffs might afford them some further flexibility in protecting their pitchers.
It means not overworking anybody, especially the league's top bullpen and Cy Young candidate Emmanuel Clase .
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The division remains the goal. But knowing they have plenty of leeway for the last wild card spot is helpful.
Ryan Lewis can be reached at rlewis1@gannett.com. Read more about the Guardians at www.beaconjournal.com/sports/cleveland-guardians. Follow him on Threads at @ByRyanLewis .
This article originally appeared on Akron Beacon Journal: Cleveland Guardians playoff race standings and magic number for 2024
