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Could Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal become first $400 million pitcher in MLB history?
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- Could Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal become first $400 million pitcher in MLB history?
Tarik Skubal is the ace of the Detroit Tigers , the reigning American League Cy Young winner and the best pitcher in baseball. He fills up the strike zone fearlessly with all of his pitches, bullies hitters with his high-velocity fastball, generates whiffs with his revered changeup and shows raw emotions in the big moments.
He's in a league of his own.
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In two years, Skubal has the potential to be the first pitcher in MLB history to receive a $400 million contract upon becoming a free agent after the 2026 season, which is his age-29 campaign. A contract extension between the Tigers and Skubal remains possible but seems highly unlikely, considering the Tigers already tried and failed to extend him .
Skubal is represented by agent Scott Boras .
"If everything goes right, he will get $400 million in free agency in two years," a National League evaluator said. "More realistically, something will go wrong because he's a pitcher, and that'll drive his price down to the $300 million range."
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What has to happen for everything to go right?
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There are two things.
Most importantly, Skubal would have to stay healthy for the next two seasons without a stint on the injured list. He has injury history with elbow injuries that required Tommy John surgery in 2016 and flexor tendon surgery in 2022 , but he made 31 starts in a healthy 2024 season.
He hasn't had any health issues since returning from flexor tendon surgery on July 4, 2023 .
Since then, Skubal ranks as MLB's leader in fWAR (9.1), ERA (2.51), strikeout rate (31%) and WHIP (0.914), while ranking fifth in walk rate (4.6%), among 40 qualified pitchers. A healthy Skubal posted his top-ranked results across 272⅓ innings in 46 starts between the 2023 and 2024 seasons.
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Next up, Skubal would have to stay successful on the mound for the next two seasons without any performance setbacks. In this case, staying successful is defined by two more sub-3.00 ERA performances, two more All-Star appearances, two more top-three finishes in AL Cy Young voting.
Essentially, Skubal needs three straight Cy Young-caliber seasons to be in the $400 million range.
Skubal has already proven he's capable, winning the AL Cy Young Award unanimously after leading the AL with 18 wins, a 2.39 ERA and 228 strikeouts to secure the first AL pitching Triple Crown in a full season since 2011.
Amy Cole, Gerrit Cole and sports agent Scott Boras pose for a photo during a press conference at Yankee Stadium in New York on Dec. 18, 2019.
If health and performance continue, Skubal will shatter the pitching contract record set by Gerrit Cole when he signed with the New York Yankees for $324 million in December 2019 after his age-28 season. (Technically, Yoshinobu Yamamoto owns the record with $325 million from the Los Angeles Dodgers in December 2023, but he signed before his age-25 season.)
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"If Skubal pitches anything like he did this past year in these next two years, now you're talking about perhaps a record-setting contract," USA TODAY MLB columnist Bob Nightengale said Dec. 12 on the Days of Roar podcast . "We're talking over $300 million. He should get as much as Gerrit Cole did, and Yamamoto. So you're talking about some big bucks. It's almost impossible to sign him to an extension now because who knows where that market is going to be in two years. You know, $300 million could be light."
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Among pitchers, Skubal is on track to the break total contract value and the average annual value records when he becomes a free agent in the 2026-27 offseason after his age-29 season.
The total value record belongs to Yamamoto, at $325 million (just $1 million more than Cole). The annual value record belongs to Max Scherzer , at $43.33 million (just $3.33 million more than Justin Verlander ).
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All Skubal needs to do to break the records set by Yamamoto and Scherzer is sign a nine-year contract worth $396 million for an average annual value of $44 million.
It's certainly possible.
Blake Snell and agent Scott Boras react during a Los Angeles Dodger press conference introducing Snell at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday, Dec. 3, 2024 in Los Angeles.
The lucrative pitching market in the 2024-25 offseason has set the market for Skubal's future contract, thanks to fellow southpaws Max Fried and Blake Snell .
Fried signed for eight years, $218 million with the Yankees after his age-30 season, the largest total contract value for a left-handed pitcher and the fourth largest for any pitcher; Snell signed for five years, $182 million with the Dodgers after his age-31 season, the largest average annual value for a left-handed pitcher and fifth largest for any pitcher.
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It's all but guaranteed that Skubal will get more total value than Fried and more annual value than Snell when he becomes a free agent in two years.
Maybe that's why Skubal and Boras rejected an extension offer from the Tigers.
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"I think the concepts are choices," Boras said Dec. 11 at MLB's Winter Meetings in Dallas, when asked about Skubal and contract negotiations with the Tigers. "Every great player who's elite at a precocious age early in his career, all of these decisions come because they're offered multi-year contracts, and then you walk through that, you discuss it with them individually, you look at their preferences and you listen to them, and they give you guidance."
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Superstar outfielder Juan Soto isn't a pitcher like Skubal, but his situation is a perfect example of what patience can bring in the business of baseball. In July 2022, Soto turned down a 15-year, $440 million contract extension offer from the Washington Nationals . In December 2024, Soto signed a 15-year, $765 million contract with the New York Mets .
Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal warms up during spring training at Tigertown in Lakeland, Fla. on Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024.
A lot of factors were at play, but Soto cashed an additional $325 million by waiting less than two years.
"Very, very rare for someone that close (to free agency) to sign an extension," Nightengale said, referencing Skubal. "I'd be real surprised. I don't see it. If Skubal believes in himself, you might as well hit that market and see if you get over $300 million."
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In reality, Skubal is lined up to be the first $400 million pitcher in MLB history — as long as everything goes right with health and performance in 2025 and 2026. He is an attractive candidate for a long-term contract, he will benefit from market inflation, and he has an agent known for securing record-breaking deals, as he did with Cole and Scherzer.
Check back in two years.
Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold .
Listen to our weekly Tigers show "Days of Roar" every Monday afternoon on demand at freep.com, Apple Podcasts , Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. And catch all of our podcasts and daily voice briefing at freep.com/podcasts .
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The $200 million club
Just eight pitchers in MLB history (not counting two-way player Shohei Ohtani ) have signed contracts with a total value of more than $200 million:
2024: Yoshinobu Yamamoto , Dodgers — $325M, 12 seasons, $27.1M AAV
2020: Gerrit Cole, Yankees — $324M, nine seasons, $36M AAV
2020: Stephen Strasburg , Nationals — $245M, seven seasons, $35M AAV
2025: Max Fried , Yankees — $218M, eight seasons, $27.3M AAV
2016: David Price , Dodgers — $217M, seven seasons, $31M AAV
2014: Clayton Kershaw , Dodgers — $215M, six seasons, $35.8M AAV
2015: Max Scherzer , Nationals — $210M, six seasons, $35M AAV
2016: Zack Greinke , Diamondbacks — $206.5M, six seasons, $34.4M
Source: Baseball Prospectus.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Could Detroit Tigers' Tarik Skubal become first $400 million pitcher?
