Detroit Tigers 2024 roster prediction 2.0: Five new players acquired before New Year's Day

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Detroit Tigers 2024 roster prediction 2.0: Five new players acquired before New Year's Day

Evan Petzold, Detroit Free Press · Detroit Free Press

Sat, Jan 6, 2024 ·

10 min read

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Opening Day is 82 days away.

The Detroit Tigers , in their second offseason under president of baseball operations Scott Harris, added five players to the active roster before New Year's Day: outfielder Mark Canha , right-hander Kenta Maeda , left-handed reliever Andrew Chafin , right-hander Jack Flaherty and right-handed reliever Shelby Miller .

Four of the five newcomers are on one-year contracts, with Maeda basking in a two-year, $24 million deal.

[ MUST LISTEN: Make "Days of Roar" your go-to Detroit Tigers podcast, available anywhere you listen to podcasts ( Apple , Spotify ) ]

Pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report in the second week of February to the spring training complex in Lakeland, Florida. The first game of spring training is Feb. 24 against the New York Yankees , and the first game of the regular season is March 28 against the Chicago White Sox .

ROSTER PREDICTION 1.0: Newcomers fill big roles, but holes still exist ahead of winter meetings

Here's a look at our second version of how the Tigers should fill their 26-man 2024 Opening Day roster, now that the calendar has changed from 2023 to 2024:

Catcher: Jake Rogers

Rogers, 28, wants to draw more walks and cut down on strikeouts after his breakthrough last season, hitting .221 with 21 home runs in 107 games. His 7.7% walk rate ranked in the 39th percentile and his 32.3% strikeout rate ranked in the fifth percentile. His strikeout problem stems from in-zone swing-and-miss issues because he rarely chases pitches out of the strike zone. Offense aside, Rogers has established himself as the Tigers' starting catcher with above-average framing and above-average blocking on defense.

MORE ABOUT HIM: How Tigers' Jake Rogers became 'what everybody is looking for' at catcher position

First base: Spencer Torkelson

Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson makes a catch against the Giants in the third inning on Saturday, April 15, 2023, at Comerica Park.

A step forward for Torkelson in 2023 means increased expectations for 2024. The 24-year-old, who was the 2020 No. 1 overall draft pick, blasted 31 home runs last season (becoming the first Tiger to reach the 30-homer milestone since Miguel Cabrera and Justin Upton in 2016) while hitting .233 with 34 doubles and 94 RBIs in 159 games. The next steps in his development are improving his batting average and cleaning up his defense.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Tigers' Spencer Torkelson refused to look at scoreboard in Year 2: It worked

Second base: Colt Keith

Detroit Tigers infielder Colt Keith plays for Triple-A Toledo on July 9, 2023, at Fifth Third Field in Toledo Ohio.

Keith, a 22-year-old top prospect also selected in the 2020 draft, hit .306 with 27 home runs, 60 walks and 121 strikeouts in 126 games last season with Double-A Erie (59 games) and Triple-A Toledo (67 games). He hit .287 with 13 homers for the Mud Hens. There's no doubt that Keith, ranked as the No. 25 prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline , is ready for his MLB debut. He spent more time at third base in his minor-league career, but he feels more comfortable at second base. Keith has the potential to contend for American League Rookie of the Year if he stays healthy.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Colt Keith thinks like Conor McGregor, plays like Joey Votto, looks like Tigers' best prospect

Shortstop: Javier Báez

Tigers designated hitter Javier Baez hits an RBI single in the first inning against the Orioles in the first game of the doubleheader on Saturday, April 29, 2023, at Comerica Park.

Báez, who turned 31 on the first day of December, hit .222 with nine home runs, 24 walks and 125 strikeouts in 136 games last season. He didn't exercise the opt-out clause in his contract, so the Tigers are set to pay him $98 million over the next four seasons. He owns a .634 OPS in 280 games over the past two seasons.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Tigers shortstop Javier Báez, another bad season and an uncertain path forward

Third base: Matt Vierling

Tigers left fielder Matt Vierling reacts to his strikeout leading off the game against the Dodgers during the first inning on Tuesday, Sept. 19, 2023, in Los Angeles.

Opinions are mixed on Vierling, whose average exit velocity dropped from 91.2 mph in 2022 to 89.1 mph in 2023, but the Tigers still believe he can hit for more power and maintain a high contact rate. The 27-year-old, despite hitting .261 last season, has launched just 18 homers in 964 plate appearances throughout his three-year MLB career. Vierling has the arm strength to play third base and doesn't fit in the outfield mix anymore. Jace Jung , a 23-year-old top prospect who plays third base, won't make the Opening Day roster but could make his MLB debut at some point in 2024.

MORE ABOUT HIM: After 448-foot grand slam, Tigers' Matt Vierling shares 'get-ready-early' adjustment

Outfield: Mark Canha (LF), Parker Meadows (CF), Riley Greene (RF)

Detroit Tigers center fielder Parker Meadows catches a Kansas City Royals' Nelson Velazquez fly ball at the outfield wall for the final out in the ninth inning of a baseball game that was suspended Wednesday night because of rain, Thursday, Sept. 28, 2023, in Detroit.

Meadows is an elite center fielder on defense.

The Tigers haven't had a defensive center fielder like Meadows since Austin Jackson in the 2010-14 seasons and Curtis Granderson in the 2004-09 seasons. Meadows fills a decade-long need with his range, arm strength and sprint speed, but it's unclear if he will hit like Jackson and Granderson. The 24-year-old hit .232 with three home runs in 37 games last season with the Tigers. Merely hitting .250 could propel Meadows to All-Star status.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Tigers' Parker Meadows continues epic start to MLB career: 'It doesn't feel real'

Canha, a nine-year MLB veteran, has the most experience among the outfielders. He hit .262 with 11 home runs and a .355 on-base percentage in 139 games last season. The Tigers acquired Canha, who turns 35 in February, in a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for reliever Blake Holub to begin the offseason, then picked up his $11.5 million club option. The Tigers think Canha's in-game decisions will naturally influence the approach of the young hitters against individual pitchers.

Greene is the best position player on the Tigers' roster when he is healthy, but he suffered a left fibula stress reaction and underwent Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow last season. The 23-year-old, a .271 hitter in his MLB career with .300 upside, is expected to be ready to play on Opening Day.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Mark Canha reinvented his approach years ago. Now, Tigers think he can help young players

Designated hitter: Kerry Carpenter

Detroit Tigers right fielder Kerry Carpenter (30) hits an RBI single in the third inning against the Minnesota Twins at Comerica Park in Detroit on Sunday, June 25, 2023.

Carpenter chases, whiffs, strikes out at a 25% rate and doesn't draw a ton of walks, but he crushes the baseball. He has a knack for finding the barrel of the bat and creating damage, hitting .278 with 20 home runs in 118 games last season. The 26-year-old has below-average range at the corner outfield positions and fits best as the designated hitter, but his arm strength and sprint speed are good enough to play in the outfield whenever the Tigers want a different player — such as the oft-injured Greene — in the DH spot. (The Tigers have not shown any interest in signing J.D. Martinez to this point in the offseason.)

MORE ABOUT HIM: Tigers slugger Kerry Carpenter proves himself as 'a solution' in long-term plan

Bench: Carson Kelly (C), Justyn-Henry Malloy (OF), Andy Ibáñez (UTIL), Zach McKinstry (UTIL)

Tigers second baseman Andy Ibanez reacts after hitting a solo home run during the sixth inning of the Tigers' 6-2 win on Monday, May 8, 2023, in Cleveland.

Kelly, the backup catcher, is going to make the Opening Day roster, barring an injury, because he is under contract for $3.5 million after the Tigers picked up his club option.

The rest of the bench roles seem up for grabs.

McKinstry and Nick Maton , a pair of left-handed hitters, don't have any minor-league options remaining, so if they don't make the roster, they'd need to pass through waivers without being claimed by another team before they can be sent to the minor leagues.

In 2023, McKinstry set career highs in games (148) and plate appearances (518). The 28-year-old hit .301 with 20 walks in May but .217 with 24 walks in the other five months of the season.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Why Tigers' Zach McKinstry, a Gold Glove finalist, plans to 'live in the weight room'

Ibáñez, a right-handed hitter, has one option remaining and should be a lock for one of the bench roles, even though he won't unseat Keith from second base. Still, Ibáñez hit .294 with 10 home runs in his final 87 games last season and played above-average defense at second base. Ryan Kreidler , a right-handed hitter and an elite infield defender who has two options remaining, made the Opening Day roster last year but is probably on the outside looking in coming into this year's camp.

Malloy, a right-handed hitter who turns 24 in February, hit .277 with 23 home runs, 110 walks and 152 strikeouts across 661 plate appearances in 135 games last season with Triple-A Toledo. His .417 OBP ranked seventh among 83 players with at least 400 plate appearances in the International League.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Andy Ibáñez makes most of 'opportunity to play' in sneaky good season with Tigers

Starting rotation: Tarik Skubal (LHP), Kenta Maeda (RHP), Jack Flaherty (RHP), Matt Manning (RHP), Casey Mize (RHP)

Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Casey Mize, center, and catcher Eric Haase in the dugout before action against the Chicago White Sox, Saturday, April 9, 2022, at Comerica Park.

The four highest-paid starting pitchers in the organization should break spring training in the Opening Day starting rotation: Maeda ($14 million), Flaherty ($14 million), Skubal (projected for $2.6 million) and Mize (projected for $1.2 million).

Manning, set to make the MLB minimum of $740,000, has two minor-league options remaining, but he posted a 3.51 ERA across 141 innings in 27 starts over the past two seasons, despite an underwhelming 16.9% strikeout rate. The 25-year-old also dealt with several injuries — shoulder inflammation, forearm strain and foot fracture (twice) —over the past two seasons. The Tigers need to find out if Manning can stay healthy and successful for a full season.

Right-handers Reese Olson and Sawyer Gipson-Long , two starters who impressed and finished last season with the Tigers, could begin the season in Triple-A Toledo's rotation.

MORE ABOUT HIM: How Tigers' Tarik Skubal overcame major elbow surgery, became elite starting pitcher

Bullpen: Jason Foley (RHP), Alex Lange (RHP), Andrew Chafin (LHP), Shelby Miller (RHP), Will Vest (RHP), Tyler Holton (LHP), Beau Brieske (RHP), Joey Wentz (LHP)

Detroit Tigers relief pitcher Andrew Chafin throws during the eighth inning of a baseball game against the Minnesota Twins, Friday, Sept. 30, 2022, in Detroit.

Six relievers appear to be locked in: Foley, Lange, Chafin, Miller, Vest and Holton. Earlier in the offseason, the Tigers signed Chafin to a one-year, $4.25 million contract and Miller to a one-year, $3 million contract . Both relievers can cash in with performance bonuses and have club options for the 2025 season.

Chafin, a 10-year MLB veteran, had a 4.73 ERA in 51⅓ innings last season; Miller, an 11-year MLB veteran, had a 1.71 ERA in 42 innings after developing a splitter with the Los Angeles Dodgers .

MORE ABOUT HIM: Tigers' Andrew Chafin stays busy on family farm, adds workouts to offseason routine

The final two spots in the bullpen could come down to several players, but Brieske seems like the seventh reliever because of his success out of the bullpen last season. His fastball averaged 97 mph compared to 94 mph as a starter, while his well-respected changeup averaged 89 mph with a 32.5% whiff rate.

Wentz, who could be the eighth and final reliever, needs to be on the Opening Day roster — possibly as a long reliever or piggyback starter — unless the Tigers are willing to risk losing him on the waiver wire. The 26-year-old doesn't have any options remaining, so he would land on waivers if he doesn't make the 26-man roster. Other teams might be interested in claiming him: Wentz is a left-handed starter and a former first-round pick who just turned 26, underwent Tommy John surgery less than four years ago and had a 31.8% whiff rate with his changeup last season.

Right-hander Alex Faedo received a fourth-year minor-league option, so he can be sent back and forth between Toledo and Detroit this season. The fourth-year option makes him a candidate for the Mud Hens' starting rotation. The 28-year-old has been working out with Skubal this offseason in Arizona .

Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold .

Listen to our weekly Tigers show "Days of Roar" every Monday afternoon on demand at freep.com, Apple Podcasts , Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. And catch all of our podcasts and daily voice briefing at freep.com/podcasts .

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers 2024 roster prediction 2.0: Offseason pickups nab spots

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