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Detroit Tigers climbed standings without expectations, but now there's everything to lose
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- Detroit Tigers climbed standings without expectations, but now there's everything to lose
BALTIMORE — Colt Keith didn't hesitate to tell the truth.
As the Detroit Tigers swept the Kansas City Royals earlier this week, the rookie second baseman kept looking out at the electronic out-of-town scoreboard on the wall in left-center field at Kauffman Stadium to check the score of games played by the Minnesota Twins .
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"I'm guilty of at least like 50 times," Keith said.
Many of the Tigers have downplayed the standings and denied paying attention to the scoreboard throughout the past few weeks, but the truth is, everyone has been paying attention to what's going on, even manager A.J. Hinch. The miraculous combination of Tigers wins and Twins losses has dramatically changed the hunt for the third and final spot in the American League wild-card race.
The Tigers and Twins are tied, at 80-73, with nine games to play in 10 days. The Twins control the head-to-head tiebreaker.
"We need to keep winning," said left-hander Tarik Skubal , "and hopefully, we can control our own destiny down the stretch."
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Spencer Torkelson and Matt Vierling of the Detroit Tigers celebrate a 7-6 win over the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium on Monday, Sept. 16, 2024 in Kansas City, Missouri.
The Tigers have won 25 of 35 games since Aug. 11; the Twins have lost 22 of 37 games over that same span. Both AL Central teams own the same record, but the Twins' 7-6 edge in the season series would give them a playoff spot if the squads finish with the same record — no more Game 163s.
Therefore, the Tigers essentially need to finish with a better record than the Twins in the final nine games to advance to the postseason for the first time since 2014. The third wild-card team will likely face the AL West champion — likely the Houston Astros — in a best-of-three series from Oct. 1-3, with all games on the road.
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"We kind of feel like it's house money," said outfielder Matt Vierling , who played in the 2022 World Series with the Philadelphia Phillies . "In all honesty, us being in this position, we didn't really think we would be here. To be here, we feel really grateful and happy. We're all starting to believe."
The Tigers climbed the standings without any expectations.
But now there's everything to lose.
TEAM LEADER: Matt Vierling is leader of young Tigers in postseason race
Detroit Tigers center fielder Parker Meadows celebrates with left fielder Riley Greene after hitting a lead off home run against the Colorado Rockies in the first inning at Comerica Park on Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024 in Detroit.
Before their Aug. 11 game, the Tigers — sellers of Jack Flaherty , Andrew Chafin , Mark Canha and Carson Kelly at the July 30 trade deadline, a precursor to cutting Gio Urshela — were eight games below .500 and 10 games back in the wild-card race, with a 0.2% chance to make the postseason, according to FanGraphs .
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A lot has changed in 40 days.
Entering Friday, the Tigers have a 42.3% chance to make the postseason.
"We won a couple of series, and then we won all four games against the ( Chicago ) White Sox ," Vierling said. "All of a sudden, we're like, 'Holy cow, we're .500.' We've been able to play good ball since then. Obviously we're trying, but it's not like we put pressure on ourselves to get here. It just kind of happened."
The Tigers ignited their improbable postseason push with two All-Stars in Skubal and Riley Greene , the return of Kerry Carpenter from the injured list, the resurgence of Parker Meadows from Triple-A Toledo, an unorthodox pitching strategy of openers and bulk relievers to aid a rotation down to just two starters, Triple-A relievers such as Sean Guenther thriving in high-leverage situations and a World Series-winning manager pushing all the right buttons.
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Hinch, who won the 2017 title with the Houston Astros, has preached the same mantra — win today's game — since the start of 2021, his first of four seasons with the Tigers.
It's paying off with wins in September 2024.
"It's easy to say we don't think about it, but everybody subconsciously is thinking about it," Skubal said. "We're doing a good job of just trying to win today's game. We'll worry about tomorrow's game tomorrow. That is going to be very important in the long run for this group. We're young, so it's going to be us."
PITCHING PLAN: How Tigers' pitching strategy from Scott Harris, A.J. Hinch is resulting in wins
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The pitching staff, anchored by the soon-to-be AL Cy Young Award winner, has been the most notable success story since Aug. 11, ranking first in MLB with a 2.50 ERA. The offense over that span, meanwhile, ranks 10th in MLB with a 107 wRC+, which is 7% above league average.
The final piece of the puzzle was the Twins spending the last month in freefall.
Here's the remaining schedule for the Tigers: three road games vs. the Baltimore Orioles (85-68), three games vs. the Tampa Bay Rays (75-78) at Comerica Park and three games vs. the White Sox (36-117) at Comerica Park. And for the Twins? Three road games vs. the Boston Red Sox (76-76), followed by three games vs. the Miami Marlins (56-96) at Target Field and three games vs. the Orioles at Target Field.
The Tigers have MLB's easiest remaining schedule (a .427 combined winning percentage) and need to win one more game than the Twins, whose schedule ranks seventh-easiest (.473).
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"For me, that's the way I've always managed," Hinch said of his relentless win today's game mantra. "It's what I believe in this sport that will lead you to series wins and good stretches of baseball. Given the mindset that this team has adopted, player by player, I do think it's been good for us in this steady climb back to winning ways."
Detroit Tigers manager A.J. Hinch (14) walks off the field after a pitching change during the fifth inning against Baltimore Orioles at Comerica Park in Detroit on Saturday, September 14, 2024.
The next nine games will test the Tigers in new ways.
The Tigers, as the third-youngest MLB team, have spent the past two weeks playing all of their games like postseason games, and while the youngsters have stayed relaxed behind the scenes, every pitch and every swing matters more.
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Somehow, the Tigers caught up to the Twins in the wild-card standings, with postseason expectations growing steadily.
Now the pressure is on.
"I don't think there was one particular moment," said Keith, who enjoyed scoreboard watching as the Cleveland Guardians beat up on the Twins while the Tigers swept the Royals, "but over the last couple of weeks, it's like, if we keep playing good baseball, we have a good chance to make playoffs and do things further than that."
Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold .
Listen to our weekly Tigers show "Days of Roar" every Monday afternoon on demand at freep.com, Apple , Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. And catch all of our podcasts and daily voice briefing at freep.com/podcasts .
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers climbed standings without worries: 'It's house money'
