With four games remaining, the Alabama football season can still go any number of ways, with a ceiling somewhere in the 12-team bracket of the College Football Playoff and a floor with a mess to mop. That's a wide range, and for first-year coach Kalen DeBoer it's a range that will determine how his first season will be remembered.
I wrote in August that a berth in the College Football Playoff's first 12-team field was a fair expectation, and there's no moving the goalpost now. Alabama has put itself in the position of having to run the regular-season table to meet that mark, and signs of concern have dotted a 6-2 season to date. That said, given the roster turnover DeBoer had to deal with as a first-year coach, a CFP berth would make his first campaign an inarguable success. Just as inarguably, a 9-3 or 8-4 season ending with key players opting out of a December bowl game – for a program that's not lost three regular season games since 2010 – wouldn't pass the same test.
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UA is a longshot to reach the SEC Championship Game. Even if the Crimson Tide finishes 10-2, it might not qualify to play in Atlanta. In fact, Alabama's path to the playoff could be made easier by not reaching the SEC title game, a system bug for all conference title games in a 12-team playoff. That's another reason playoff qualification is a better measure for the season.
But not the only measure.
Player development is another. Improvement from the beginning of a season to its end is one thing, but year-over-year improvement is equally if not more important. As such, it'll be Year two under DeBoer before there's a clear view of the strides players make in the program, a hallmark of Nick Saban's tenure,
As for recruiting, DeBoer can't sew up his first Alabama recruiting class until National Signing Day, but the group currently ranks No. 2 nationally behind only Georgia, with the same heavy presence of five- and four-star recruits that Saban once gathered annually. That speaks to DeBoer's ability to keep the program flush with talent, and to UA's NIL coffers as well.
All that, however, ties back to team performance. And for Alabama, making the playoff is the only bar worth clearing.
"We had two really sloppy pass sets that cost us sacks, which was disappointing. Sometimes (with) a sack, maybe the ball is held long or maybe that guy just did a great job in his pass rush. But that wasn't the case here." – Alabama OL coach Chris Kapilovic on Alabama's starting offensive tackles, Kadyn Proctor and Elijah Pritchett, allowing one sack each vs. Missouri .
This being Alabama's second idle week of the season, it's been only four years since the last time the Crimson Tide had two Saturdays off − and in that case, they came in back-to-back weeks. During the COVID-19 pandemic season of 2020, UA was to have played LSU after a November idle week, but the game had to be rescheduled, leaving Alabama with another open week. As a result, UA played Mississippi State on Halloween, and didn't play again until facing Kentucky on Nov. 21. The LSU game was moved to Dec. 5, which Alabama won 55-17. ... Alabama freshman DB Zay Mincey has moved from cornerback to safety after starting safety Keon Sabb was lost to an injury in UA's loss to Tennessee. Mincey saw limited action at the position against Missouri. ... Former Alabama left tackle Cam Robinson , now in his eighth NFL season, has been traded from the Jacksonville Jaguars to the Minnesota Vikings .
Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia will go for his second career win at Auburn on Saturday. He led New Mexico State to a 31-10 win over the Tigers with three TD passes at Jordan-Hare Stadium last season. ... Texas A&M coach Mike Elko says he wasn't referring to fired Aggies coach Jimbo Fisher when he said: "It's not fake. It's not a politician running this program, talking fast and BS'ing everybody." OK, maybe he wasn't talking about Fisher, but that doesn't mean it was an inaccurate description. ... It's a big week for Florida 's Billy Napier, who is trying to avoid losing to archrival Georgia for the third time in his three years as coach. ... SEC Spread Pick of the Week: Take the over on the Ole Miss-Arkansas total (53.5). Season ATS: 3-4-2 (.444). All-time ATS: 24-8-3 (.728).
Tuscaloosa News columnist Chase Goodbread is also the weekly co-host of Crimson Cover TV on WVUA-23. Reach him at cgoodbread@gannett.com. Follow on X.com @chasegoodbread.
This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: What first-year success looks like for Alabama football's Kalen DeBoer
