Michigan football quarterback J.J. McCarthy is zoned in on defeating Washington in the College Football Playoff championship , but his impending draft status is still a major question mark ahead of the 2024 season.
McCarthy is a junior with another year of eligibility left in his college football career. He has amassed 6,086 passing yards, 49 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in his time at the helm for the Wolverines , and has proved to be a steady presence as a signal-caller for a perennial playoff team. He could stay on with the Wolverines for another season and increase his draft stock for the 2025 NFL draft, or declare for the draft this year and kickstart his professional career.
However, McCarthy's talent does not always pop off the screen compared to other quarterbacks in the class, such as USC's Caleb Williams , UNC's Drake Maye , and Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels , who are consistently placed ahead of McCarthy in various mock drafts.
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As he prepares to face off against Washington on college football's biggest stage, here is a look at McCarthy's NFL draft projections, where he stands in various mock drafts and what talent evaluators think of his viability as a pro quarterback:
McCarthy has not yet made a decision on whether to declare for the 2024 NFL draft, the deadline for which is Monday, Jan. 15.
"I have not (made a decision) at all," McCarthy told reporters on Dec. 19. "I'm completely in the present moment, soaking in every single day, enjoying every single practice, every single meeting with my guys. Only God knows (the answer to) that question, so I'll know by the end of the season."
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McCarthy's draft projections are all over the place, although his draft stock has increased with Michigan's recent run to the College Football Playoff national championship game.
McCarthy's talent is evident when in command of an offense, and some draft experts have keyed him in to be a first round draft pick, while others see Michigan's quarterback falling to Day 2 of the drat. Below is a sampling of the projections on where McCarthy will land, several of which were written before the Rose Bowl:
Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz, USA TODAY : No. 13 overall pick to the Las Vegas Raiders
Mel Kiper, ESPN (subscription required): No. 7 quarterback, second-round pick
Josh Edwards , CBS Sports : No. 13 to the Raiders
The Sporting News : No. 19 to the Atlanta Falcons
Walter Football : No. 4 quarterback, Rounds 1-2
Sports Illustrated: No. 42 to the Raiders
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Here is a year-by-year look at McCarthy's stats from throughout his college football career. His most efficient and impressive season has come with the Wolverines in 2023:
2021:34 of 59 passing (57.6%) for 516 yards and five touchdowns to two interceptions
2022:208 of 322 passing (64.6%) for 2,719 yards and 22 touchdowns to five interceptions
2023:230 of 314 passing (73.2%) 2,851 yards and 22 touchdowns to four interceptions
McCarthy is 20 years old, but will turn 21 on Jan. 20. Listed as 6-foot-3, 202 pounds, McCarthy is currently a junior with one season of eligibility remaining after the conclusion of the College Football Playoff national championship game.
According to the 247Sports' Composite rankings , McCarthy was the No. 25 player overall and No. 5 quarterback in the 2021 recruiting class. McCarthy drew offers from programs such as Ohio State , USC, Tennessee and LSU out of IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida, but opted to sign with Michigan.
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Views on McCarthy tend to differ, with certain NFL draft analysts expressing more optimism about the Wolverines signal-caller than others.
McCarthy has had an excellent season and has kept the turnovers at a minimum, but a poor performance against Bowling Green in Week 3 drew some pause from analysts. McCarthy threw three of his four interceptions on the season in that game and finished with 143 passing yards and two touchdowns in Michigan's 31-6 win.
ESPN's Mel Kiper , who has McCarthy as his No. 7 quarterback, cited that Michigan's suffocating offensive line may have actually hurt McCarthy's draft stock, as he was not forced to throw the ball to win games during the regular season. Kiper felt he did not see McCarthy go through many progressions on certain plays and did not have the "wow" throws that Williams or Daniels routinely made.
"He wasn't asked to beat teams with his arm, partly because the Wolverines blew out all of their opponents until November," Kiper wrote. "It's clear McCarthy has a ton of talent, but not all NFL teams are going to be in love with him, which means he could drop to Day 2."
McCarthy didn't put up extremely impressive numbers in the Big Ten championship game win over Iowa or the Rose bowl victory over Alabama . But analysts took note of how the quarterback took command of the Michigan offense in the face of two vaunted defenses. Here's what Fox Sports' Rob Rang said about the impact of those two bowl games on McCarthy's draft stock:
" Scouts will certainly recognize the stellar Alabama defense McCarthy and the Wolverines overcame in the Rose Bowl. Scouts attending the game in Pasadena expected ' a handful ' of Crimson Tide defenders to eventually earn first-round selections, a vastly superior level of competition than Penix faced against Texas and Oregon. McCarthy showed poise and precision as a passer, as well as his trademark mobility, in escaping a vaunted Alabama pass rush and consistently completing passes against arguably the most gifted secondary in the country. McCarthy's pro stock may not have risen in the eyes of NFL scouts following these two games, but it certainly didn't plummet just because his production failed to impress fantasy football enthusiasts. "
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: J.J. McCarthy NFL draft stock, projections heading into CFP title game
