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Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence's ascension into greatness shouldn't shock anyone
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- Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence's ascension into greatness shouldn't shock anyone
There's not much room for error, and the spotlight will be brighter than ever when Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence steps on the field in Week 1 against the Miami Dolphins in September.
On and off the field, Lawrence's 2024 has been a whirlwind. He was given the largest contract in franchise history which technically makes him the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL by annual average, tied with Joe Burrow . Lawrence and his wife Marissa are also expecting the birth of his first child, a baby girl .
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Still, Lawrence, drafted as the first-overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, has always been fine with a bit of added pressure.
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In high school, Lawrence was simply prolific. He threw for 13,902 yards, 161 touchdowns and just 21 interceptions. Including a 41:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his senior season. He helped lead Cartersville High School to 41 straight victories, two state championships and four region titles.
He was tabbed as the consensus No. 1 recruit in football.
At Clemson, Lawrence's success continued, earning multiple ACC and National honors in addition to a National title in 2018. Clemson went 39-3 during Lawrence's three years with the Tigers and Lawrence's legend continued as the consensus first-overall pick in 2021.
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He was also given the label "generational" quarterback, a now-hotly discussed topic among fans, media and other observers.
Then, Lawrence entered the NFL.
A rocky start: Trevor Lawrence 's rookie wake-up call proved fruitful
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) twists and leaps over San Francisco 49ers cornerback Ambry Thomas (20) during the fourth quarter at TIAA Bank Field Sunday, Nov. 21, 2021 in Jacksonville. The Jacksonville Jaguars hosted the San Francisco 49ers during a regular season NFL game. The 49ers defeated the Jaguars 30-10. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]
It's hard to quantify the amount of damage a head coach like Urban Meyer can do, but his short tenure with the Jaguars was marred by alleged verbal abuse , belittling of players and staff , and showing a profound lack of familiarity with NFL stars , to name a few.
Those indiscretions, along with a rebuilding roster, culminated in a disastrous year for both Lawrence and the team. All without talking about the on-field play which was almost just as bad. Jacksonville secured back-to-back first-overall picks after a 3-13 season and saw little, if any, development from Lawrence who lost nearly three times the number of games he'd ever lost in his football career until 2021.
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Lawrence completed just 59.6% of his passes for 3,641 yards, 12 touchdowns and an NFL-high 17 interceptions. As a Rocky Top fan, Lawrence hit rock bottom during his first year on the job. There are lessons to be learned especially through great adversity, though.
"I think that experience is probably the best teacher," Lawrence told Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer shortly after signing his record-setting contract extension in June. "Everyone says the big thing is the 'whys' learned from other people's mistakes. I do think that's true. But I also think there are some things you just kind of have to go through. And you learn a lot when you experience them."
Though the quote was from present-day Lawrence, his thoughts two years ago, less than a month after his disastrous rookie season echo the same philosophy.
"Through the good and the bad you gotta always learn and take something out of it so you can get better but I would just say it really taught me how to stay the same every day, try to be consistent," Lawrence told CBS Sports in January 2022. "Obviously, [I] didn't play my best every week, not necessarily about on the field but just my attitude, my work ethic, all those things. No matter how things were going, just always staying the same."
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Lawrence's mindset and work ethic never wavered. His cadence and demeanor at press conferences have remained consistent and the addition of head coach Doug Pederson solidified the rock Lawrence has turned into today.
Inside the numbers: Trevor Lawrence grows under Doug Pederson
Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson and Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) greet each other after beating the Tennessee Titans on Jan. 7, 2023, sealing a playoff berth.
Since Pederson took the helm, the Jaguars, and Lawrence, have seen success previously unseen by Jacksonville for nearly two decades, back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since 2004 and 2005.
Much of the team's success has come because of Lawrence, which isn't hyperbole.
According to research from SB Nation's Big Cat Country's Gus Logue , over the last two seasons when Lawrence's passing success rate is at 40% or lower, the Jaguars hold a 1-8 record and a -97 point differential. When it's 55% or higher, the team is 7-0 with a +110 point differential. As Logue says, the Jaguars go as Lawrence does.
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From a simple-stat perspective, Lawrence's improvement can be seen clearly from 2021-2023 after posting a 39.1 QBR (28th in the league) in his rookie season and improving to 56.1 (17th) during his second and third seasons.
According to rbsdm.com , Lawrence's numbers track similarly. In Success Rate (percent of plays with a positive Expected Points Added), Lawrence ranked eighth in the league in 2023, just behind Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes at 48.8%. In 2022-23 combined, Lawrence ranked fifth in success rate, again, behind Mahomes.
By contrast, in 2021, Lawrence ranked 24th in success rate (45.3%).
Lawrence posted .07 Expected Points Added per play in 2023 ranking 16th, according to rbsdm. However, NFL analytics expert Ben Baldwin took the metric a step further to add context to Lawrence's metrics.
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When taking into account dropped passes and interceptions, yards after catch, luck on interceptable passes, fumble recoveries, interception returns, the defense faced and expected yards after the catch only, Lawrence ranked sixth in the metric with a new EPA/play of .23 just behind Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa.
Lawrence's pass-catchers did him few favors in 2023. Receiver Zay Jones played in just nine games and was largely ineffective, catching 34 passes for 321 yards and two touchdowns. Christian Kirk was forced to miss the final five games of the season with a groin injury and Calvin Ridley tied for third in the league in drop percentage at 8.4%.
Over the last two seasons, Lawrence completed 65.9% of his passes for 8,129 yards, 46 touchdowns and 22 interceptions. For reference, no quarterback in Jaguars history has produced those numbers through a two-season span when looking at all four categories, completion percentage, yards, touchdowns and interceptions.
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Former Jags QB Blake Bortles posted 8,333 yards and 58 touchdowns through 2015-16. However, he completed just 58.7% of his passes and threw 34 interceptions.
Lawrence's 63.8% completion percentage ranks first in Jaguars history among quarterbacks who have played 13 or more games for the franchise. Only Gardner Minshew II comes close at 62.9% completion percentage, but he played just 23 games for the Jaguars.
Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) runs out of the tunnel to the field through smoke, lights and lasers before a December game against the Bengals.
"He's really taking the offense over, knowing the offense inside and out. He's done a great job from year to year of learning and kind of speaking up more and understanding more of what we want done, knowing your players better," Jaguars quarterbacks coach Mike McCoy said of Lawrence's development over the last two seasons in June.
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"Just having a great understanding of exactly how the offense is supposed to be run and the leadership of being able to speak more."
Lawrence's development has taken time, but with Pederson's guidance, his control of the offense has increased and the team's understanding of the type of player he is has grown.
After receiving one of the most lucrative contracts in NFL history, the expectations for Lawrence's continued growth are only rising. But that shouldn't shock anyone.
Jaguars pride: Big-play accuracy sets Trevor Lawrence apart
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) runs onto the field before a regular season NFL football matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Dallas Cowboys Sunday, Dec. 18, 2022 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]
As Lawrence continues into his fourth season, his growth ought to continue. As McCoy mentioned, Lawrence has taken a greater leadership role.
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"It's earned respect and having the work ethic to back it up, and then producing. So those are the two things that I want to do more consistently, but I feel like I have proven myself to my teammates and proven the leader that I am. I have a lot of confidence in that, and I know my teammates respect me," Lawrence said earlier this offseason.
"We have a lot of leaders on the team and being the quarterback is a big one, you are looked at as the leader, but we have other guys too. Whether it's on the defensive side of the ball or whatever, that have to carry their weight and we have a great leadership group actually that's been talking a lot this offseason and we know kind of the next step we need to take to get us where we want to go."
Lawrence's stats last year and beyond back up his ascension.
Lawrence ranked ninth in 2023 for intended air yards per passing attempt at 8.2 and 11th in completed air yards per passing attempt with 4.0 with an average pocket time of 2.2 seconds (tied for 31st). That means, Lawrence was one of the better downfield passers in the league without having much time to throw.
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In terms of efficiency and among players that have started 15 or more games over the last two seasons combined, Lawrence ranks 16th in average net yards per passing attempt at 6.32, just ahead of Joe Burrow (6.31).
Though Lawrence has, in the past, done more with inconsistent help, the Jaguars made it a point to surround the franchise quarterback with the pieces for him to ascend and take advantage of what he's done best.
Last season, Lawrence ranked sixth in the league, according to Pro Football Focus, with 35 Big Time Throws (BTT) or passes with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window. He posted a BTT percentage of 5.8, ranking fifth behind Cowboys QB Dak Prescott .
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What stands out, however, is Lawrence's 31 BTT of 20 yards or more, ranking first in the NFL, according to PFF. He's one of the best downfield passers in the league, with just an average of 2.95 seconds to get to throw, ranking 20th. Among throws of 20 or more yards, Lawrence completed 45.3% of his passes for 1,048 yards, 11 touchdowns and three interceptions. For reference, Lawrence's completion percentage down the field ranked sixth in the league.
Enter rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and veteran Gabe Davis .
Both players are excellent downfield receivers. In college, Thomas caught 17 touchdowns and averaged 17.3 yards per reception, ranking eighth among draft-eligible receivers this year.
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Davis, since being drafted in 2020, ranks first among receivers with 300 total targets (47 eligible) in first-down rate (78.9%), touchdown rate (17.8%), average depth of target (16.3), yards per reception (17.3) and explosive reception rate (45.5%).
Both players complement Lawrence perfectly and ought to take him to the next level as he progresses in his career.
While the term "generational" has continued to be thrown back in the face of Lawrence and his fans, it cannot, does not and will not take away from what he's shown he's capable of doing on a down-in and down-out basis.
Demetrius Harvey is the Jacksonville Jaguars reporter for the Florida Times-Union. You can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @Demetrius82 .
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This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Trevor Lawrence: Jaguars quarterback poised to join NFL's best in 2024
