It is probably a stretch to say that at the midpoint of their first season in the Big 12 , the BYU Cougars are the worst 4-2 team in the Football Bowl Subdivision.
After all, the Cougars are No. 68 in ESPN's latest College Football Power Index , ahead of No. 75 Marshall, No. 81 Georgia Southern, No. 83 Western Kentucky and No. 87 Louisiana, teams that also have four wins and two losses on their record.
But a case could certainly be made that BYU, which was absolutely pummeled by TCU 44-11 last Saturday in Fort Worth, Texas, would have a tough time beating any of those four teams on their home fields, or at a neutral site.
BYU has outscored its opponents just 166-156, while only Marshall (182-171) of the other four already mentioned has a scoring margin close to BYU's.
In some of the most telling national rankings, such as total offense (121st) and total defense (96th), BYU is at the bottom of the college football barrel. The Cougars could just as easily be 2-4 as 4-2.
Convinced yet?
BYU coach Kalani Sitake isn't, which is obviously a good thing. The eight-year head coach is still firmly behind his guys.
As the Cougars (1-2 in Big 12 play) began preparations for Saturday's clash at LaVell Edwards Stadium (5 p.m., FS1) against Texas Tech, a 4.5-point favorite despite having a 3-4 record and possibly starting a third-stringer at quarterback in Provo, Sitake insisted his team is close to putting it all together.
"Looking at our team, we have got some adjustments to make, but I still like the guys. I feel good about the team culture, the leadership," Sitake said. "We will keep building on that and keep moving forward with a positive outlook and try to get ourselves ready so we can play our best this weekend against Texas Tech."
What is BYU's best? The Cougars played well in the second half at Arkansas to pull out a 38-31 road victory , and overcame an early deficit at Kansas with a strong first half before fizzling out and losing 38-27.
Somehow they beat Cincinnati 35-27 despite getting outgained by more than 200 yards.
Other than that, they've been underwhelming, particularly against Sam Houston and Southern Utah, a new FBS school and a perennial FCS bottom-dweller that have a combined record of 2-10. SUU is No. 167 in the Sagarin rankings, Sam Houston No. 157.
The 33-point loss to TCU was the program's second-worst since Sitake took over in 2016, astounding considering the Horned Frogs entered the game 3-3 and on a two-game losing skid and were playing backup QB Josh Hoover.
"I will (say) this: TCU, they played their best game of the year, and we didn't play our best game of the year," Sitake said.
Here are some other 4-2 teams and their scoring margins: SMU (200-102), Memphis (204-138), Miami (226-114), Clemson (193-116), Kansas State (217-124), West Virginia (171-136) and Wisconsin (163-107).
You get the picture.
Looking at the second half of the season, which includes games against FPI No. 5 Texas, FPI No. 2 Oklahoma and FPI No. 32 Texas Tech this week, the Cougars will do well to pick up two more wins and become bowl eligible.
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After Saturday's debacle, the fear in Provo is that the Cougars will go into another October tailspin, like last year when a flat effort against Notre Dame in Las Vegas led to a four-game skid.
Sitake said the Cougars are better equipped to avoid such a drop-off, mentally and physically, partly because they are now in a conference.
"I think we are in a different stage now where the motivation to play is way different," he said Monday. "I think last year it was just more about just getting to a bowl game, and the bowl game that we already knew we were going to be playing (in).
"So I am just being really honest with you guys. With this year, there is still a lot to play for. The affiliation with the conference is huge."
BYU running back LJ Martin (27) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown against Kansas Saturday, Sept. 23, 2023, in Lawrence, Kan. The true freshman running back has shown flashes of his potential this season. | Charlie Riedel, Associated Press
Credit the Cougars for winning the turnover battles in almost every game. It is a big reason why they have a winning record.
They are tied for 24th in the country in turnover margin at +4, having captured 11 takeaways and coughed up the ball only seven times. Of course, they gave up two defensive scores to Kansas and one to TCU. All three were costly.
Twenty-eight of the points allowed by BYU have come against the Cougars' offense or special teams.
Actually, special teams has mostly been a positive for BYU. The Cougars are 12th in net punting, for instance.
Defensive lineman John Nelson said lack of confidence will never be a thing for this team.
"After we lost to Kansas, no one was really freaking out," Nelson said. "I don't think the vibe over here is all of a sudden we are a bad team because we lost, right? We are still as good as we believe we are and we are going to play as hard as we can from each game here on out."
That "love and learn" culture that Sitake and his staff and team leaders have worked hard to build appears to be paying off.
"There is a different mindset, one that I don't really have to work so hard motivating (the team)," Sitake said. "What I need to do as a coach is get us to function at a higher level and to play up to our capabilities.
"I think physically we are in a really great spot. I have to factor all the things, whether it is scheme, personnel, schedule, everything, to get us to play better. I am working on that. That's the goal, to get that done."
TCU tight end Jared Wiley scores a touchdown against BYU Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, in Fort Worth, Texas. The Cougars' defense had its roughest outing of the season against the Frogs. | LM Otero, Associated Press
First, the good news, besides the Cougars' four wins, which most people would have taken at the halfway point when the season began: BYU is 69th in the country, about average, in scoring defense. The Cougars are giving up 26.0 points per game.
Also, they are tied for 17th in interceptions, with eight. Cornerback Jakob Robinson 's early pick-six catapulted them to the win over Cincinnati.
Nelson and Sitake said the effort is still there.
"You lose games in football. Going undefeated is really hard to do, and winning is really hard. So yeah, we lost a game. Didn't go the way we thought it should have. We made some mistakes in all three phases of the game," Nelson said. "But each game is a big game and a must-win game, so the mentality going into Texas Tech is we got a good team coming into Provo. Regardless of what their record says, it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter if we are favored. It doesn't matter if they are favored. We have to bring it on offense, defense and special teams for the whole 60 minutes."
Now, for the ugly: The Cougars are 123rd in sacks (seven in six games) and 125th in tackles for loss (3.8 per game). They are simply not wreaking havoc near the line of scrimmage.
New defensive coordinator Jay Hill 's changes have felt like an upgrade, but the Cougars still don't have a pass rush of which to speak.
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"At the end of the day, we are the ones playing on the field and we gotta do it. We gotta bring it," Nelson said.
Another reason the defense hasn't been dominant is that same old song — BYU still struggles to stop the run, and get off the field on third down. The Cougars are 94th in third-down conversion defense (37 of 88 for 42%).
TCU was 10 of 14 on third down through three quarters and finished 12 of 19. BYU is 96th in total defense, giving up 398 yards per game.
"Even though (TCU's Hoover) was able to make some accurate throws, there are some things we gotta do differently and if they are going to throw the ball 60 times and (us) not get a sack, there are going to be problems," Sitake said. "We do have to pivot and find ways to make plays and find ways to get better on third down on both sides of the ball."
BYU coach Kalani Sitake talks to his team during game against Kansas Saturday, Sept. 23, 2023, in Lawrence, Kan. | Charlie Riedel, Associated Press
Used to be the Cougars' lack of a running game was the main issue for the offense, but against TCU the passing game also seemed to take a step backwards. Credit the Frogs, whose speed and physical corners always seem to give BYU fits.
Now offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick has some work to do, in multiple areas. The Cougars are 121st in total offense (306.0 yards per game) and have failed to surpass the 300-yard plateau in four of their five games against FBS opponents.
A small shuffle on the offensive line — Connor Pay and Paul Maile switched spots — didn't seem to help.
"Not good enough. We didn't score any points. And we didn't run the ball effectively. I don't think that was the reason; there were a bunch of different factors that went into it," Sitake said of the change. "But that didn't help much, either. Offensively, we have got to figure things out."
The Cougars haven't been good on first and second down — running downs, primarily — and that has led to countless third-and-long situations. And those have been disastrous, for the most part.
BYU is 124th in third-down conversion percentage, a woeful 30.4% (24 of 79).
"As a quarterback, you gotta find a way to make plays and move the ball and score points," BYU quarterback Kedon Slovis said. "I gotta be better."
Texas Tech (2-2, 3-4)
at BYU (1-2, 4-2)
Saturday, 5 p.m. MDT
LaVell Edwards Stadium
TV:FS1
Radio:102.7 FM/1160 AM
Some semblance of a running game would help. The Cougars are dead last — 130th out of 130 teams — in yards per carry (2.38).
"We have seen our offense be explosive before. We just want to get back to it, get back to that identity of being an explosive offense, and find ways to make plays," Sitake said.
Let's finish on a positive note: BYU is among the best teams in the country in the red zone, 29th in red zone offense. They've gotten there 20 times and scored 14 touchdowns and four field goals.
Sitake said running back Aidan Robbins, whose been out with a rib injury, is getting closer to returning, which should give the offense a boost.
BYU runs onto the field before game against TCU, Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, in Fort Worth, Texas. | LM Otero, Associated Press
