NFL playoff picture: Chiefs become first team to clinch berth after close win vs. Raiders

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NFL playoff picture: Chiefs become first team to clinch berth after close win vs. Raiders

Nate Davis, USA TODAY · USA TODAY Sports

Sun, Dec 1, 2024 ·

9 min read

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Every week for the duration of the 2024 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the league's ever-evolving playoff picture, typically starting after Sunday afternoon's late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday's and Thursday's games or Saturday's, if applicable – even Black Friday, when you get an earlier look at the postseason developments).

What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference's seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday, Jan. 5.

Here's where things stand with Week 13 of the 2024 season underway:

AFC playoff picture

x – 1. Kansas City Chiefs (11-1), AFC West leaders:Yet another close shave as they narrowly escaped the Raiders 19-17 on Black Friday . But that was still sufficient to convey this season's first clinched playoff berth to the reigning champs, who are pursuing the first-ever Super Bowl three-peat. The Bills' head-to-head tiebreaker advantage still means K.C. can't afford to backslide at all – but they can only slip so far at this point. Remaining schedule: vs. Chargers , at Browns , vs. Texans , at Steelers , at Broncos

Nov 29, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) scrambles from Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

2. Buffalo Bills (9-2), AFC East leaders:Coming out of their break, they'll draw a battered San Francisco squad at home Sunday night – likely in the midst of heavy lake effect weather – as they seek a sixth consecutive victory. A fifth straight division title is practically a foregone conclusion (a win over the 49ers does the trick), and Pittsburgh's Week 12 loss only solidified the Bills' standing near the top of the conference. And, with that potentially pivotal tiebreaker against the Chiefs in hand, the Bills could soon steer the road to Super Bowl 59 through Western New York. Remaining schedule: vs. 49ers, at Rams , at Lions, vs. Patriots , vs. Jets , at Patriots

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3), AFC North leaders:A win at Cleveland last week would have vaulted them ahead of the Bills and into the No. 2 seed. Instead, the Steelers suffered a damaging loss – and to a divisional opponent (Cleveland) no less – that could greatly hinder their ability to compete for home-field advantage. Remaining schedule: at Bengals , vs. Browns, at Eagles, at Ravens , vs. Chiefs, vs. Bengals

4. Houston Texans (7-5), AFC South leaders:Losers of four of six after falling at home to lowly Tennessee on Sunday, it's starting to appear like they might back onto the throne of a bad division and be one-and-done once postseason starts. Remaining schedule: at Jaguars , BYE, vs. Dolphins, at Chiefs, vs. Ravens, at Titans

5. Baltimore Ravens (8-4), wild card No. 1:Good as they (usually) are – including Monday night's fairly convincing defeat of the Chargers in "Harbaugh Bowl III" – losses to the wrong teams could well mean no home playoff games this season. Remaining schedule: vs. Eagles, BYE, at Giants , vs. Steelers, at Texans, vs. Browns

6. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4), wild card No. 2:They're starting to look like the NFL's Hoosiers, better competition amplifying their flaws – say, perhaps, a somewhat overrated defense, youngsters still not quite ready for prime time (WR Quentin Johnston ) and a run game now without injured RB J.K. Dobbins for a period of time. Still, these Bolts have a lot of Charger-ing to do in order to drop out of the field. Remaining schedule: at Falcons , at Chiefs, vs. Buccaneers , vs. Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders

7. Denver Broncos (7-5), wild card No. 3:Their hold on the AFC's last berth continues to harden and should continue to do so in the coming weeks ... unless they manage to jump the Chargers. Remaining schedule: vs. Browns, BYE, vs. Colts , at Chargers, at Bengals, vs. Chiefs

8. Indianapolis Colts (5-7), in the hunt:They're starting to lose sight of Denver and the final wild-card slot after Week 12's setback, though they'll get a shot at them in the Mile High City soon. Remaining schedule: at Patriots, BYE, at Broncos, vs. Titans, at Giants, vs. Jaguars

GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN - NOVEMBER 28: Lukas Van Ness #90 of the Green Bay Packers sacks Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins during the first half of the game at Lambeau Field on November 28, 2024 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

9. Miami Dolphins (5-7), in the hunt:QB Tua Tagovailoa was excited to "kill narratives" Thursday night ... like the one that says the Fins can't win in cold weather. Welp. Miami's three-game win streak ended in Lambeau Field, and its playoff hopes also took a serious hit – as did the team's positioning, a Week 7 loss at Indianapolis dropping the Dolphins behind the Colts. Remaining schedule: vs. Jets, at Texans, vs. 49ers, at Browns, at Jets

10. Cincinnati Bengals (4-7), in the hunt:Soul-crushing losses in their previous two games might be too much to overcome. Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at Cowboys , at Titans, vs. Browns, vs. Broncos, at Steelers

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NFC playoff picture

1. Detroit Lions (11-1), NFC North leaders:They were fortunate to fend off the Bears 23-20 on Thanksgiving for the first 11-1 start in franchise history. The victory keeps the Lions in the conference lead and gives them a remote chance of locking up a postseason berth this weekend. The simplest scenarios require losses by the 49ers and Cardinals plus either losses by the Seahawks and Buccaneers or losses by the Seahawks and Commanders and Falcons. Remaining schedule: vs. Packers , vs. Bills, at Bears, at 49ers, vs. Vikings

Nov 28, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (87) celebrates in the end zone after catching a touchdown pass against Chicago Bears cornerback in the second first quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

2. Philadelphia Eagles (9-2), NFC East leaders:They're officially a clear and present danger to Detroit and might run away, a la RB Saquon Barkley , with this division ... though Sunday's assignment in Baltimore will be no crab cakewalk. Remaining schedule: at Ravens, vs. Panthers , vs. Steelers, at Commanders, vs. Cowboys, vs. Giants

3. Seattle Seahawks (6-5), NFC West leaders:No team had a better Week 12, the 'Hawks leaping from ninth-place also-rans to division front-runners after knocking off the Cards. Wins over Arizona and Atlanta jump Seattle into this spot. Remaining schedule: at Jets, at Cardinals, vs. Packers, vs. Vikings, at Bears, at Rams

4. Atlanta Falcons (6-5), NFC South leaders:They dropped a seed on their week off. A season sweep of the Bucs effectively gives Atlanta a two-game lead in the division, but the Falcons have no such edge on the suddenly surging Saints . Remaining schedule: vs. Chargers, at Vikings, at Raiders, vs. Giants, at Commanders, vs. Panthers

5. Minnesota Vikings (9-2), wild card No. 1:They're winning ugly – including Sunday's overtime escape at Chicago – but have also won four straight. It may not seem like Vikes are a threat to win their division, yet they're only one game back of Detroit in the NFC North loss column. Remaining schedule: vs. Cardinals, vs. Falcons, vs. Bears, at Seahawks, vs. Packers, at Lions

6. Green Bay Packers (9-3), wild card No. 2:After handling the warm-weather Dolphins in Lambeau's sub-freezing temperatures, the Pack also remain relevant in the NFC North while further cementing another postseason bid. Remaining schedule: at Lions, at Seahawks, vs. Saints, at Vikings, vs. Bears

7. Washington Commanders (7-5), wild card No. 3: Ambushed by the Cowboys in Week 12, that's three losses in a row for a team that needs to get its mojo back if it's going to hold off the horde of lurking NFC West wannabes ... who aren't far from becoming could-bes. They can just about forget any thoughts of winning the NFC East. Remaining schedule: vs. Titans, BYE, at Saints, vs. Eagles, vs. Falcons, at Cowboys

8. Arizona Cardinals (6-5), in the hunt:Their four-game win streak – and division lead – went up in smoke at Seattle on Sunday. Key games the next two weeks. Remaining schedule: at Vikings, vs. Seahawks, vs. Patriots, at Panthers, at Rams, vs. 49ers

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6), in the hunt:Their four-game slide now in the rearview after embarrassing the Giants in Week 12, the opportunity is there to have a strong finishing kick, one that already vaulted them up from 11th place last Sunday. Remaining schedule: at Panthers, vs. Raiders, at Chargers, at Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints

10. Los Angeles Rams (5-6), in the hunt:They weren't competitive last Sunday night against Philly. A Week 3 win over San Francisco keeps them ahead of the Niners, but an inferior conference record drops them behind the Bucs. Remaining schedule: at Saints, vs. Bills, at 49ers, at Jets, vs. Cardinals, vs. Seahawks

11. San Francisco 49ers (5-6), in the hunt:The talent is still here, there's just not enough of it on the field right now − as was obvious last Sunday in Green Bay . And they're back in a cold-weather (and perhaps snowscaped) Buffalo environment in Week 13. Remaining schedule: at Bills, vs. Bears, vs. Rams, at Dolphins, vs. Lions, at Cardinals

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 28: Rico Dowdle #23 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates a touchdown with teammates during the third quarter against the New York Giants at AT&T Stadium on November 28, 2024 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images)

12. Dallas Cowboys (5-7), in the hunt:Hand it to Mike McCarthy's crew – they're not dying easy, when it would be quite easy, at this point, to do exactly that. Their latest win – and first at home this year – over the Giants on Thanksgiving moves them past the Saints for now, though New Orleans owns the head-to-head tiebreaker due to a Week 2 rout at "Jerry World." Dallas' near-term goal? Get back to .500 and see what happens from there. Remaining schedule: vs. Bengals, at Panthers, vs. Buccaneers, at Eagles, vs. Commanders

13. New Orleans Saints (4-7), in the hunt:They're 2-0 under interim HC Darren Rizzi. And given the way the NFC South is compressing, don't count them out. Remaining schedule: vs. Rams, at Giants, vs. Commanders, at Packers, vs. Raiders, at Buccaneers

14. Chicago Bears (4-8), in the hunt:They came out flat Thursday, mounted a valiant second-half comeback at Detroit ... then completely imploded on their final drive, when a field goal would have tied the game. Thus, almost certainly, ends any chance they had of sneaking into the playoff field, the Bears cooked on Thanksgiving. And, what's positively ending, is the tenure of coach Matt Eberflus, who was fired Friday . Remaining schedule: at 49ers, at Vikings, vs. Lions, vs. Seahawks, at Packers

NFL playoff clinching scenarios for Week 13

Buffalo clinches AFC East division title with:

▶ Win

Detroit clinches a playoff berth with:

49ers loss or tie + Cardinals loss or tie + Seahawks loss + Buccaneers loss or tie
49ers loss or tie + Cardinals loss + Seahawks tie + Buccaneers loss or tie
49ers loss or tie + Cardinals loss or tie + Seahawks loss + Commanders loss or tie + Falcons loss
49ers loss or tie + Cardinals loss or tie + Seahawks loss + Commanders loss + Falcons tie
49ers loss or tie + Cardinals loss + Seahawks tie + Commanders loss or tie + Falcons loss
49ers loss or tie + Cardinals loss + Seahawks tie + Commanders loss + Falcons tie

NFL teams eliminated from playoff contention in 2024

▶ New York Giants

▶ Las Vegas Raiders

x – clinched playoff berth

***

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis .

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL playoff picture: Chiefs first team to clinch berth in postseason

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