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NFL playoff picture, clinching scenarios: Bills, Chiefs, Lions can lock up spots in Week 13
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- NFL playoff picture, clinching scenarios: Bills, Chiefs, Lions can lock up spots in Week 13
Every week for the duration of the 2024 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the league's ever-evolving playoff picture − starting after Sunday afternoon's late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday's and Thursday's games or Saturday's, if applicable – even Friday, this week only).
What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference's seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday night, Jan. 5.
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Here's where things stand with Week 12 of the 2024 season complete:
AFC playoff picture
1. Kansas City Chiefs (10-1), AFC West leaders:It wasn't pretty – yet again – but they outlasted Carolina to extend their lead over Buffalo by a half game, though the Bills' head-to-head tiebreaker advantage still means K.C. can't afford to backslide at all right now – especially as the champs will be back in action on Black Friday. The Chiefs can lock up a berth this weekend courtesy of a few scenarios, all requiring a win. They'd also need a loss by the Dolphins or Broncos or a Chargers loss coupled with a Denver tie. Remaining schedule: vs. Raiders , vs. Chargers, at Browns , vs. Texans , at Steelers , at Broncos
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 17: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills greets Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs after defeating the Kansas City Chiefs 30-21 at Highmark Stadium on November 17, 2024 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
2. Buffalo Bills (9-2), AFC East leaders:Coming out of their break, they'll draw a battered San Francisco squad at home as they seek a sixth consecutive victory. A fifth consecutive division title is practically a foregone conclusion (a win coupled with a Miami defeat in Week 13 does the trick), and Pittsburgh 's loss only solidified the Bills' standing near the top of the conference. And, with that potentially pivotal tiebreaker against the Chiefs in hand, the Bills could soon steer the road to Super Bowl 59 through Western New York. Remaining schedule: vs. 49ers , at Rams , at Lions, vs. Patriots , vs. Jets , at Patriots
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3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3), AFC North leaders:A win at Cleveland on Thursday night would have vaulted them ahead of the Bills and into the No. 2 seed. Instead, the Steelers suffered a damaging loss – and to a divisional opponent no less – that could greatly hinder their ability to compete for home-field advantage. Remaining schedule: at Bengals , vs. Browns, at Eagles, at Ravens , vs. Chiefs, vs. Bengals
4. Houston Texans (7-5), AFC South leaders:Losers of four of six after falling at home to lowly Tennessee on Sunday, it's starting to appear like they might back onto the throne of a bad division and be one-and-done once postseason starts. Remaining schedule: at Jaguars , BYE, vs. Dolphins, at Chiefs, vs. Ravens, at Titans
5. Baltimore Ravens (8-4), wild card No. 1:Good as they (usually) are – including Monday night's fairly convincing defeat of the Chargers in "Harbaugh Bowl III" – losses to the wrong teams could well mean no home playoff games this season. Remaining schedule: vs. Eagles, BYE, at Giants , vs. Steelers, at Texans, vs. Browns
Derrick Henry had 140 yards in the Ravens' victory over the Chargers.
6. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4), wild card No. 2:They're starting to look like the NFL's Hoosiers, better competition amplifying their flaws – say, perhaps, a somewhat overrated defense, youngsters still not quite ready for prime time (WR Quentin Johnston ) and a run game that may now be without injured RB J.K. Dobbins . Still, these Bolts have a lot of Charger-ing to do in order to drop out of the field. Remaining schedule: at Falcons , at Chiefs, vs. Buccaneers , vs. Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders
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7. Denver Broncos (7-5), wild card No. 3:Their hold on the AFC's last berth continues to harden and should continue to do so in the coming weeks ... unless they manage to jump the Chargers. Remaining schedule: vs. Browns, BYE, vs. Colts , at Chargers, at Bengals, vs. Chiefs
8. Miami Dolphins (5-6), in the hunt:As QB Tua Tagovailoa goes, so go the Fins – and the whole operation is heating up after a third consecutive win Sunday. However a team that tends to struggle in cold climes must play at Green Bay on Thanksgiving night. Remaining schedule: at Packers , vs. Jets, at Texans, vs. 49ers, at Browns, at Jets
9. Indianapolis Colts (5-7), in the hunt:They're starting to lose sight of Denver and the final wild-card slot after Sunday's setback, though they'll get a shot at them in the Mile High City soon enough. But that could be moot now that the Colts have been jumped by the Dolphins. Remaining schedule: at Patriots, BYE, at Broncos, vs. Titans, at Giants, vs. Jaguars
10. Cincinnati Bengals (4-7), in the hunt:Soul-crushing losses in their previous two games might be too much to overcome. Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at Cowboys , at Titans, vs. Browns, vs. Broncos, at Steelers
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NFC playoff picture
1. Detroit Lions (10-1), NFC North leaders:They labored a bit Sunday at Indianapolis and could be short-handed on the injury front given the quick turnaround to their annual Thanksgiving game. Yet no need to panic, especially as they settle in for a three-game homestand. There are far-flung scenarios that would allow the Lions to lock up a berth this week, though many involve ties. The simplest require a win and losses by the 49ers and Cardinals plus either losses by the Seahawks and Buccaneers or losses by the Seahawks and Commanders and Falcons. Remaining schedule: vs. Bears, vs. Packers, vs. Bills, at Bears, at 49ers, vs. Vikings
2. Philadelphia Eagles (9-2), NFC East leaders:They're officially a clear and present danger to Detroit and might run away, a la RB Saquon Barkley , with this division. Remaining schedule: at Ravens, vs. Panthers , vs. Steelers, at Commanders, vs. Cowboys, vs. Giants
The Seattle Seahawks are current leaders of the NFC West.
3. Seattle Seahawks (6-5), NFC West leaders:No team had a better Sunday, the 'Hawks jumping from ninth-place also-rans to division front-runners after knocking off the Cards. Wins over Arizona and Atlanta jump Seattle into this spot. Remaining schedule: at Jets, at Cardinals, vs. Packers, vs. Vikings, at Bears, at Rams
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4. Atlanta Falcons (6-5), NFC South leaders:They dropped a seed on their week off. A season sweep of the Bucs effectively gives Atlanta a two-game lead in the division, but the Falcons have no such edge on the suddenly surging Saints . Remaining schedule: vs. Chargers, at Vikings, at Raiders, vs. Giants, at Commanders, vs. Panthers
5. Minnesota Vikings (9-2), wild card No. 1:They're winning ugly – including Sunday's overtime escape at Chicago – but have also won four straight. It may not seem like Vikes are a threat to win their division, yet they're only one game back of Detroit in the NFC North. Remaining schedule: vs. Cardinals, vs. Falcons, vs. Bears, at Seahawks, vs. Packers, at Lions
6. Green Bay Packers (8-3), wild card No. 2:After handling the depleted Niners, the Pack also remain relevant in the NFC North. Remaining schedule: vs. Dolphins, at Lions, at Seahawks, vs. Saints, at Vikings, vs. Bears
7. Washington Commanders (7-5), wild card No. 3: Ambushed by the Cowboys , that's three losses in a row for a team that needs to get its mojo back if it's going to hold off the horde of lurking NFC West wannabes ... who aren't far from becoming could-bes. They can just about forget any thoughts of winning the NFC East. Remaining schedule: vs. Titans, BYE, at Saints, vs. Eagles, vs. Falcons, at Cowboys
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8. Arizona Cardinals (6-5), in the hunt:Their four-game win streak – and division lead – went up in smoke at Seattle on Sunday. Key games the next two weeks. Remaining schedule: at Vikings, vs. Seahawks, vs. Patriots, at Panthers, at Rams, vs. 49ers
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6), in the hunt:Their four-game slide now in the rearview after embarrassing the Giants, the opportunity is there to have a strong finishing kick, one that already vaulted them up from 11th place Sunday. Remaining schedule: at Panthers, vs. Raiders, at Chargers, at Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints
10. Los Angeles Rams (5-6), in the hunt:They weren't competitive Sunday night against Philly. A Week 3 win over San Francisco keeps them ahead of the Niners for now, but an inferior conference record drops them behind the Bucs. Remaining schedule: at Saints, vs. Bills, at 49ers, at Jets, vs. Cardinals, vs. Seahawks
11. San Francisco 49ers (5-6), in the hunt:The talent is still here, there's just not enough of it on the field right now − as was obvious Sunday in Green Bay. And they're back in a cold-weather environment in Week 13. Remaining schedule: at Bills, vs. Bears, vs. Rams, at Dolphins, vs. Lions, at Cardinals
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12. New Orleans Saints (4-7), in the hunt:They're 2-0 under interim HC Darren Rizzi. And given the way the NFC South is compressing, don't count them out. A 3-4 record in NFC games pushes them ahead of Chicago and Dallas . Remaining schedule: vs. Rams, at Giants, vs. Commanders, at Packers, vs. Raiders, at Buccaneers
13. Chicago Bears (4-7), in the hunt:A five-game skid means they're just about done – maybe well done by the time Thanksgiving in Detroit is over. A slightly better mark in conference matchups currently gives them an edge on Dallas. Remaining schedule: at Lions, at 49ers, at Vikings, vs. Lions, vs. Seahawks, at Packers
14. Dallas Cowboys (4-7), in the hunt:Hand it to Mike McCarthy's crew – they're not dying easy, when it would be quite easy at this point, to do exactly that. (Reference the Giants, Dallas' Thanksgiving opponent.) Their annual Turkey Day showcase would be a perfect time to notch their first home win of 2024. Remaining schedule: vs. Giants, vs. Bengals, at Panthers, vs. Buccaneers, at Eagles, vs. Commanders
NFL playoff clinching scenarios for Week 13
Buffalo clinches AFC East division title with:
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▶ Win + Dolphins loss
Kansas City clinches a playoff berth with:
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Win + Dolphins loss or tie
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Win + Broncos loss
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Win + Chargers loss + Broncos tie
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Tie + Dolphins loss
Detroit clinches a playoff berth with:
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Win + 49ers loss or tie + Cardinals loss or tie + Seahawks loss + Buccaneers loss or tie
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Win + 49ers loss or tie + Cardinals loss + Seahawks tie + Buccaneers loss or tie
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Win + 49ers loss or tie + Cardinals loss or tie + Seahawks loss + Commanders loss or tie + Falcons loss
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Win + 49ers loss or tie + Cardinals loss or tie + Seahawks loss + Commanders loss + Falcons tie
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Win + 49ers loss or tie + Cardinals loss + Seahawks tie + Commanders loss or tie + Falcons loss
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Win + 49ers loss or tie + Cardinals loss + Seahawks tie + Commanders loss + Falcons tie
Note via the NFL: There are additional scenarios in which Detroit can clinch a playoff spot with a tie and other outcomes that involve the Lions clinching the strength of victory tiebreaker.
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Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis .
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL playoff picture, clinching scenarios: Chiefs, Bills near berths
