NFL playoff picture: Complete AFC and NFC fields, matchups for wild-card games

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NFL playoff picture: Complete AFC and NFC fields, matchups for wild-card games

Nate Davis, USA TODAY · USA TODAY Sports

Mon, Jan 6, 2025 ·

25 min read

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With 272 regular-season games now in the books, the NFL playoff picture is complete.

Week 18 wound down with the Detroit Lions vanquishing the Minnesota Vikings 31-9 on "Sunday Night Football" – the game was much closer than the final score – to retain their NFC North crown while also securing the conference's No. 1 seed for the first time in the franchise's history.

But a lot of other matters were resolved on Sunday, the final two teams gaining entry into the 14-team playoff field, while seeding and scheduling were also sorted out .

USA TODAY Sports had live updates throughout the day to explain what happened while also setting the stage for the Super Bowl 59 tournament. Here's how everything shook out:

NFC playoff picture

yz – 1. Detroit Lions (15-2), NFC North champions:It took all 18 weeks and most of four quarters on Sunday night, but they successfully defended their divisional throne while obtaining a No. 1 seed for the first time ever. A battered team that was further bruised by Minnesota can definitely use the extra rest before resuming the quest for its first Super Bowl appearance. Playoff schedule: BYE

y – 2. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3), NFC East champions:They locked down the division crown in Week 17 and the NFC's No. 2 seed. They won a meaningless game with their reserves defeating the Giants on Sunday but got to rest many prominent starters ahead of a wild-card showdown with Green Bay . Playoff schedule: vs. Packers

y – 3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7), NFC South champions:They're division champions for the fourth consecutive season after coming back to beat a game New Orleans squad in the regular-season finale. They climbed to the third seed after the Rams ' loss by virtue of a two-game advantage in NFC games (8-4). Playoff schedule:vs. Commanders

y – 4. Los Angeles Rams (10-7), NFC West champions:Like Philly, they wrapped up their division in Week 17 and mostly wanted get through Week 18 intact before preparing for their playoff opener. But their loss to Seattle dropped LA to the fourth seed and a tough matchup against the salty Vikes. Playoff schedule:vs. Vikings

x – 5. Minnesota Vikings (14-3), wild card No. 1:They couldn't quite finish off the quest for the No. 1 seed ... meaning they now must become road warriors, whose reward could be a return trip to Ford Field if they can handle the Rams first. Playoff schedule: at Rams

x – 6. Washington Commanders (12-5), wild card No. 2:A last-second victory at Dallas provided a nice end to the regular season, Washington's first with 12 wins since 1991. Green Bay's earlier loss conferred the sixth seed. Playoff schedule:at Buccaneers

x – 7. Green Bay Packers (11-6), wild card No. 3:Getting swept by Detroit and (eventually) Minnesota relegated the Pack to wild-card status even before Week 17. Sunday's loss locked them into the seventh seed and a wild-card rematch in Philadelphia with the Eagles, who beat the Pack in Week 1 in South America. Playoff schedule:at Eagles

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AFC playoff picture

yz – 1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-2), AFC West champions:By crushing Pittsburgh on Christmas , they secured home-field advantage and a first-round bye – and two-plus weeks off in actuality with many starters resting in what was a meaningless (for K.C., anyway) Week 18 contest at Denver . Playoff schedule: BYE

y – 2. Buffalo Bills (13-4), AFC East champions:They locked up the No. 2 seed in Week 17, meaning the road to Super Bowl 59 could go through Western New York if the Chiefs lose their playoff opener. Playoff schedule: vs. Broncos

y – 3. Baltimore Ravens (12-5), AFC North champions: Catching fire? Probably an understatement as they blazed their way to the division crown and No. 3 seed Saturday afternoon by smoking Cleveland . Next up? A trilogy rubber match with Pittsburgh . Playoff schedule: vs. Steelers

y – 4. Houston Texans (10-7), AFC South champions:They rule a weak division for the second straight year, but the fourth seed means a tough wild-card matchup (albeit in Houston) against the Bolts. Playoff schedule: vs. Chargers

x – 5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6), wild card No. 1:They moved up to the fifth seed courtesy of Pittsburgh's loss and secured the wild-card matchup with Houston by beating Las Vegas on Sunday. Playoff schedule: at Texans

x – 6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7), wild card No. 2:They've lost four in a row (by an average of 13 points) to close out the regular season, dropping them from the AFC North lead and No. 3 seed down to sixth and a trip back to Baltimore. Playoff schedule: at Ravens

x – 7. Denver Broncos (10-7), wild card No. 3:The third time was the charm as they finally secured the AFC's final wild-card berth, ending a nine-year postseason absence, by rolling over the Chiefs' backups 38-0. Next week's assignment in Western New York will be much tougher. Denver went 0-3 against the Chargers and Steelers this season, hence the Broncos could never do better than the seventh seed coming into the weekend. Playoff schedule:at Bills

x – clinched playoff berth

y – clinched division

z – clinched home-field advantage, first-round bye

First-round order for 2025 NFL draft (projected)

(Team records in parentheses)

(* Note: Spots 19 through 32 determined by playoff results)

Lions emblematic of a breakthrough postseason?

With Detroit now cruising toward its first-ever No. 1 seed, it's worth wondering how far the Lions – the only team to never reach the Super Bowl despite playing for the entirety of the Super Bowl era (since 1966) – can go. They're among a number of teams who could hoist the Lombardi Trophy for the first time this season, a list that also includes the Bills, Texans, Chargers and Vikings.

Low-scoring affair

After the Vikings failed to convert on fourth-and-goal there, the clubs have only combined for 16 points tonight little more than halfway through the game. Minnesota and Detroit scored fewer than 20 points in a game this season twice – once per team. The Vikings and Lions have teamed to score at least 30 points 14 times during the 2024 campaign.

Rams not a team Minnesota or Detroit should want to see

While earning the NFC's No. 1 seed – plus the bye and home-field advantage that come with it – would be a self-evident advantage for the Lions or Vikings in Sunday night's regular-season finale, there's another immediate benefit to prevailing: Avoiding the Los Angeles Rams.

LA will host the loser of the NFC North title game, yet neither team is going to intimidate the Rams. They beat Minnesota 30-20 on Oct. 24 at SoFi Stadium, which happens to be the Vikings' most recent defeat entering Week 18. But Los Angeles coach Sean McVay has unique insight into the Vikes, who are coached by Kevin O'Connell, his former offensive coordinator. On the flip side, the Lions beat the Rams twice in 2024 – a 24-23 victory last January in the wild-card round and a 26-20 overtime triumph in Week 1 of this season, both games at Ford Field.

The Rams finished 10-7 and will almost certainly be a home underdog regardless of their opponent, particularly since SoFi doesn't offer much of a home-field advantage. But McVay and Co. are battle-tested and generally peaking. Don't count them out a week from Monday night – the Lions or Vikings certainly won't.

Playoff schedule unveiled

While the 2024 playoff matchups aren't quite set, the schedule almost is – the Los Angeles Rams waiting to learn whether they'll host the Lions or Vikings in the "Monday Night Football" wild-card game that caps postseason's opening weekend. Here's the (almost finalized) lineup .

What's at stake in Sunday night's Vikings-Lions game?

The final contest of the 2024 regular season, Minnesota at Detroit in the 272nd game of the campaign, comes with beaucoup implications:

▶ A Lions win or tie means they get the NFC North title, a first-round bye and home-field advantage for the first time in franchise history plus a club record 15 regular-season victories. The Vikings would then travel to LA to play the Rams in the wild-card round.

▶ A Vikings win means they get the NFC North title, a first-round bye and home-field advantage. Minnesota could also notch 15 regular-season wins for the first time since 1998. The Lions would then travel to LA to play the Rams in the wild-card round.

Chargers to visit Texans in wild-card round

The opening round of the playoffs in the AFC will feature one of its hotter teams, the Los Angeles Chargers, against one of its disintegrating ones, the Houston Texans . The Bolts secured the conference's fifth seed – and a ticket to NRG Stadium next weekend – by thumping the Las Vegas Raiders . The victory also means the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers will meet for the third time this season in their postseason opener at Baltimore.

Rams suffer potentially costly seeding slip

The NFC West champion LA Rams rested their primary players Sunday, including QB Matthew Stafford . They wound up dropping a 30-25 decision to the Seattle Seahawks , and that could cost them dearly. Instead of hosting the sixth-seeded Washington Commanders in the wild-card round, SoFi Stadium will instead welcome whomever loses tonight's NFC North title game between the 14-win Vikings and Lions ... though important to note the Rams did vanquish Minnesota in LA in Week 8, which was also the Vikes' most recent defeat.

Broncos earn final NFL playoff berth, some seeds still undetermined

Denver's 38-0 rout of the Chiefs' junior varsity squad – K.C. QB2 Carson Wentz threw for 98 yards – completes the league's playoff field for the 2024 season. The Broncos earn the AFC's final wild card, its No. 7 seed ... and a wild-card trip to Buffalo to face the Bills. The Bengals and Dolphins were both eliminated by that result. Some seeds in each conference remain up for grabs as the late-afternoon window winds down.

Vikings-Lions will be historic ... on top of its huge stakes

By now, you probably know the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions will meet tonight in Ford Field with so much on the line for both teams: namely the NFC North title and the first-round bye and home-field advantage that come courtesy of the conference's No. 1 seed.

But some history will also be made Sunday night. The game will be the first in the NFL's 105 seasons to feature a pair of 14-win clubs. It will also have the highest combined win total (28) of any regular-season matchup in league history. The previous mark was 25 total wins entering a game – including the famous contest to end the 2007 regular season, when the New England Patriots completed the only 16-0 regular season of all time.

Broncos removing all drama as AFC field comes into focus

Denver needed wins each of the previous two weeks to clinch a wild-card berth that would end their nine-year playoff absence. The Broncos failed in both Weeks 16 and 17 but are having no trouble against the Kansas City Chiefs backups Sunday, leading at halftime 24-0. If they hang on, they acquire the conference's final playoff spot and seventh seed, which would mean a trip to Buffalo next weekend.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins, who are losing to the New York Jets , and Bengals – they won in Pittsburgh on Saturday night – can only hope for a miracle. Miami advances with a win and Denver loss. Cincinnati qualifies if the Broncos and Dolphins both lose.

AFC's No. 5 seed hangs in balance

One of the few remaining facets yet determined in the playoff picture is the fifth seed of the AFC's side of the playoff picture. It would seem to be desirable as it would present a matchup with the AFC South champion Houston Texans, who have struggled for most of the past two months. The Los Angeles Chargers would get the spot by beating the Raiders in Las Vegas, but the Bolts currently trail. If they lose, the spiraling Pittsburgh Steelers would travel to Houston next weekend.

Aaron Rodgers hits rare milestone at Miami's expense

It's been a lost season for the New York Jets, but QB Aaron Rodgers hit a meaningful benchmark during what might be his final game with the team and maybe in the NFL. A 5-yard TD pass to TE Tyler Conklin was Rodgers' 500th in the regular season, which is his 20th in the league. He becomes the fifth member of an exclusive club led by Tom Brady (649). It also includes Drew Brees (571), Peyton Manning (539) and Brett Favre (508), Rodgers' former teammate with the Packers.

The score also gave the NYJ a 7-6 lead over the Miami Dolphins , who must win Sunday to have any shot at reaching the playoffs.

No. 1 pick of 2025 NFL draft clinched

Like the New York Giants last week, the New England Patriots played some of their best football when it mattered the least ... and coughed up the top pick of this year's draft in the process. The Pats' Week 18 defeat of the Buffalo Bills transferred the No. 1 selection this year to the Tennessee Titans . Here are the top five spots as they currently stand (scroll down for the full Round 1 lineup):

What's at stake in 4:25 p.m. ET NFL games?

Dolphins at Jets:Miami needs to win (and hope Denver loses) in order to earn the AFC's final wild-card spot and No. 7 seed. Fins QB Tua Tagovailoa was ruled out earlier this afternoon, so Tyler Huntley will start in his place for the second straight week.

Chiefs at Broncos:Denver must win or tie against a Kansas City team that's sitting most of its notable players – the reigning champs secured the AFC's No. 1 seed on Christmas – to lock up the conference's final wild-card berth after failing to do so the past two weeks. A loss ends the Broncos' season shy of the playoffs for the ninth straight year. If Denver and Miami both lose, the Bengals swipe the AFC's last wild-card spot.

Chargers at Raiders:A win by the Bolts would move them up from the sixth seed to the fifth seed and a wild-card matchup with the Texans.

Seahawks at Rams:A Los Angeles victory would cement the NFC West champions as the conference's No. 3 seed. A loss would drop them to fourth behind the Bucs.

Who gets NFC's third seed?

The Los Angeles Rams would by beating Seattle today. But a Seahawks win would move the Buccaneers up to the No. 3 spot since Tampa Bay has a better record in NFC games than LA. The third-seeded team will host the Commanders in the wild-card round. The No. 4 seed will draw the loser of the Sunday night clash between the Lions and Vikings.

Bucs win NFC South

It was certainly tougher than many would have expected, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won their fourth consecutive division title by coming back to beat the New Orleans Saints 27-19. WR Mike Evans also achieved his 11th consecutive 1,000-yard season on the final play, tying Jerry Rice's league record.

NFC's No. 7 seed decided

A 51-yard field goal at the gun by Chicago K Cairo Santos sent the Bears to a 24-22 victory that relegated Green Bay to the NFC's No. 7 seed and a wild-card trip to Philadelphia. Washington made the result moot thanks to Terry McLaurin 's TD catch from QB2 Marcus Mariota in the final seconds, which beat the Cowboys in Dallas.

Falcons in desperation mode

Atlanta has the ball at the two-minute warning but trails 38-31 following Panthers QB Bryce Young 's 10-yard TD run on Carolina's previous possession. A Falcons defeat gives the NFC South crown to Tampa Bay, which leads New Orleans 20-19.

Packers go up

Green Bay took its first lead over the Chicago Bears on Sunday thanks to a 55-yard Brandon McManus field goal inside the final minute. With Washington losing, the Packers are currently in line for the NFC's sixth seed.

Everyone want the NFC South?

A wild sequence of events of making the race to the NFC South title must-see TV as both the Bucs-Saints and Falcons-Panthers games wind down. Tampa Bay took its first lead of the day thanks to a 32-yard touchdown catch by Jalen McMillan , whose reception two snaps earlier converted a fourth-and-8 for the Buccaneers but also cost them 15 yards after he made an unsportsmanlike gesture. As Tampa Bay went up 20-19, shortly thereafter up north, Atlanta tied its game 31-31 courtesy of a 21-yard TD strike from rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. to WR Drake London.

Anyone want the NFC South?

With both the Bucs-Saints game in Tampa and Falcons-Panthers game in Atlanta now in the fourth quarter, both the Buccaneers and Dirty Birds are losing with the division crown still on the line. If New Orleans and Carolina both win, the Bucs take the division.

Tua Tagovailoa officially out for Dolphins

Miami needs to beat the New York Jets today and hope the Denver Broncos lose in order for the Fins to qualify for the postseason field as the AFC's final wild card. But the Dolphins will again be without QB Tua Tagovailoa due to a hip injury and will hope QB2 Tyler Huntley can engineer a win for the second straight week. Miami has beaten the Jets four straight and 12 times in the AFC East rivals' past 14 meetings.

Commanders pull Jayden Daniels

Washington has started cycling its backups into its Sunday afternoon matchup in North Texas against the Dallas Cowboys , notably subbing in QB2 Marcus Mariota for Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner Jayden Daniels. The Commanders are currently slotted as the NFC's sixth seed and would remain there with a win or Green Bay loss. Whichever club finishes with the No. 7 seed will travel to Philadelphia to face the Eagles in the wild-card round. The sixth seed will play either the Rams or NFC South champion on the road.

Who gets No. 1 draft pick if Patriots win?

One of the more intriguing developments in Sunday afternoon's 1 p.m. ET window of games is the strong showing by rookie QB Joe Milton and the New England Patriots, who would secure the top pick of the 2025 NFL draft with a loss to the Bills. However the Pats lead 14-10 at the half – AFC East champion Buffalo has nothing to gain today in terms of playoff positioning – thanks to a TD pass and run from Milton, a sixth-round pick last April out of the University of Tennessee who arguably has the strongest arm in the league.

If New England wins – and Patriots fans can at least be buoyed by the fact that the apparent quarterback of the future, Drake Maye, was selected third overall in the 2024 draft – then the Tennessee Titans, who are losing to the Houston Texans in Nashville, would have the inside track on the top pick. The Cleveland Browns , who already lost Saturday to clinch a 3-14 campaign, currently sit atop the board by virtue of playing the extra game. The Pats could fall out of the top four by prevailing.

Injuries mounting for Packers

Green Bay could be experiencing something of a nightmarish Week 18, when all the Pack have at stake is a possible elevation to the NFC's sixth seed – which would mean avoiding the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field in the wild-card round. However amid that apparent pursuit, oft-injured WR Christian Watson was carted off with what appeared to be a non-contact injury to his right knee (not the one that had him on the injury report during the week), while QB Jordan Love has been absent from the game against Chicago since banging his throwing elbow. Both players are technically questionable to return.

The last time Tampa Bay Buccaneers didn't win NFC South?

The Bucs' reign is often overlooked and underappreciated, likely because of the division's low profile and fact that quite often it doesn't require 10 wins to finish in first place. Nevertheless, the last time Tampa Bay failed to finish on top was 2020 ... which, ironically, was when Tom Brady captained them to victory in Super Bowl 55 via a wild-card pathway in a year when the New Orleans Saints won the NFC South during what proved to be QB Drew Brees' final season.

The last time Atlanta Falcons won NFC South?

Try the 2016 season, when the Dirty Birds infamously lost Super Bowl 51 – after coughing up a 28-3 second-half lead – to Brady's New England Patriots. Dan Quinn, who will take the Washington Commanders into the playoffs next week, was Atlanta's coach in 2016. The Falcons are seven years removed from their last postseason appearance.

What's at stake in 1 p.m. ET NFL games?

Panthers at Falcons:Atlanta needs to win to have a shot at the NFC South championship. A victory coupled with a Buccaneers loss gives the Falcons the division title.

Saints at Buccaneers:Tampa Bay wins its fourth straight NFC South throne with a win (or Atlanta loss). In addition, seeding has not bee determined for the division winner or the NFC West champion Rams, though those two teams will be in either the third or fourth spot before "Sunday Night Football" tonight.

Commanders at Cowboys:Washington locks in the NFC's sixth seed with a win.

Bears at Packers:Green Bay can obtain the NFC's sixth seed with a win and Commanders loss. Otherwise, the Pack slot in as the No. 7 seed.

Bills at Patriots:A New England (3-13) loss puts them back atop the first-round order for the 2025 NFL draft. The Cleveland Browns (3-14) are presently No. 1 after Saturday's loss to Baltimore.

Bucs catch a few breaks on injury front

Saturday wasn't great for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, S Jordan Whitehead involved in a car crash and sustaining serious enough injuries that he won't be able to play again this season. He's expected to be OK over the long term.

However, from a pure football perspective, the Bucs caught a few breaks Sunday, when a win will confer their fourth consecutive NFC South crown. Their opponent, the five-win New Orleans Saints, will not have star RB Alvin Kamara (groin) or backup RB Kendre Miller, meaning their backfield will again be stocked with updates given QB Derek Carr had already been ruled out. Elsewhere, the Atlanta Falcons, who are trying to win the NFC South themselves, won't have WR2 Darnell Mooney (shoulder) in a game they must win against the Carolina Panthers to have any shot at reaching the postseason.

Did Bengals lose season in Week 1?

If Cincinnati fails to qualify for the postseason, the team can blame another slow start – 0-3 or 1-4 or 4-8 or however you want to look at it – for the premature demise that is likely coming. The Bengals' eight losses have come by an average of 6.1 points. Throw out a 20-point drubbing from the Eagles, and Cincinnati's average margin of defeat in its seven other setbacks was 4.1 points.

In the Bengals' defense, it's been a tough schedule. Seven of their losses came against teams that will compete in the 2024 postseason. But it's the one that didn't – a 16-10 loss to the lowly New England Patriots, who will likely "earn" the top pick of the 2025 draft on opening day at Paycor Stadium – that still has to hurt. Cincinnati scored its fewest points of the season (its next-worst output was 17 points, which would've beaten the Pats) while the distraction of WR Ja'Marr Chase's contract still hung in the air. Why the Bengals routinely struggle in September is a problem coach Zac Taylor must figure out going forward.

If he and his team had figured out how to beat New England, which is 3-13 – its other wins coming against the Jets and Bears – then the Bengals would have already clinched a wild-card berth.

Bengals playoff scenario: Two more opponents' losses and in

The Bengals took care of business in their 19-17 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday night . Now, they'll be firmly rooting for a pair of outcomes in the late window to complete their improbable playoff push.

Cincinnati needs both the Broncos to stumble against the Chiefs – who will be resting Patrick Mahomes and many other starters – and for the Dolphins to trip up against the New York Jets. Denver would make the postseason with a win, while Miami would be next in line with a win and Broncos loss.

Steelers playoff scenarios: AFC North rematch or showdown with Texans?

Pittsburgh is smarting after dropping its fourth consecutive game heading into the playoffs. But even after Saturday's loss to the Bengals, there's a chance for the Steelers to end up with a favorable playoff matchup.

With a Los Angeles Chargers win over the Las Vegas Raiders, the Steelers will slink to the No. 6 seed and a rematch against the Ravens in Baltimore just three weeks after falling to the Ravens there, 34-17. But if the Chargers falter, Mike Tomlin and Co. would get a wild-card matchup against the Houston Texans.

Houston has lost its last two contests and is the only team currently in the AFC playoff field with a negative point differential on the season (-9).

NFC North scenarios: Lions, Vikings put everything on line for division title, home-field advantage

Despite limited overall drama in the playoff chase down the stretch, the NFL ended up with a high-stakes showcase for the spotlight of its final game of the regular season.

A Lions win would keep Detroit atop the conference and give Detroit the No. 1 seed for the first time in franchise history. The Vikings, meanwhile, also can claim home-field advantage – but only if they can beat Dan Campbell and Co. after dropping their last four in the series.

No matter the outcome, the drop to the first wild-card spot will be precipitous. And the potential opening matchup could provide reason for concern, as the Vikings fell to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 8 and the Lions slipped up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2.

NFC South scenarios: Any chance for a late surprise for Buccaneers, Falcons?

After squandering their division lead in Week 17 in a loss to the Washington Commanders, the Atlanta Falcons need a substantial break to end their six-year playoff drought.

The Buccaneers will seize the NFC South crown for the fourth consecutive year on Sunday simply by beating the New Orleans Saints. If they slip, however, the Falcons could capture the division title with an accompanying win over the Carolina Panthers, as they would prevail based on a head-to-head tiebreaker.

But the outlook for Atlanta is daunting. The Saints became the first NFL team to be shut out this season when they fell 34-0 to the Green Bay Packers two weeks ago, and Tampa Bay rolled to a 51-27 win in the first meeting between the two teams in Week 6. Quarterback Derek Carr has been ruled out, and running back Alvin Kamara is doubtful.

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Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL playoff picture: How AFC, NFC brackets panned out in final week

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