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NHL Mailbag: Just how good are the Buffalo Sabres?
The Sabres might not be the best team in hockey, but they've certainly arrived to some extent. (Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images)
Now that we're a week past Thanksgiving, a lot of people are really just seeing where everything sits.
It's been a turbulent month in the NHL, no doubt, but there's a lot of clarity now about who needs to do what to either improve or maintain their positions. Simply put, if you're not in the playoffs now, you're gonna have a hell of a time getting in.
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Some teams might need to take some drastic measures, like firing their coach or making a big trade, but hey, you might as well talk about it.
So let's do just that:
Justin asks: " Sabres win 10 in a row, but only three in regulation. Are they for real?"
Depends what you mean when you say "real."
Are they the best team in the league, which is what their record says they are? Of course not and you know that.
Are they a playoff team? I wouldn't have thought so before the season (I would have had them just barely on the outside looking in) but now they've padded the record enough that it would be hard for them to miss; they probably only need 60 more points from their remaining 57 games, which just about any team in the league could do. It's a pace for 86 points. Buffalo has the talent to do that with their eyes closed.
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And now here's the "but:" But adjusted or unadjusted, they're at least a little below water in just about every underlying number you can name (Corsi, Fenwick, expected-goals, whatever). Not a good long-term sign for them.
Also their games are incredibly low-event: In all situations they take the 10th-fewest attempts per 60 minutes and allow the ninth-fewest, meaning they're operating on thin margins.
Like I said, they're only fine. It's nice that you're all excited, but don't count on this lasting.
Behold My Stuff asks: "You're heading to Vegas and want to put early money on the Jack Adams winner. Who do you pick?"
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Well shoot if we're talking about it, seems like it's probably Phil Housley, right? He's gonna get the Sabres in the playoffs for the first time in forever in a top-heavy division.
I guess if the Rangers make it (they won't) you can throw Rookie Coach Dave Quinn in that mix. Maybe Jared Bednar in Colorado if the Avs keep this up. Maybe even Bruce Cassidy if the Bruins can get through these injuries and make it to 100 points.
I also wouldn't count out Rod Brind'Amour because while the Hurricanes have been okay for the last couple years, they've never put it together. He gets them into the playoffs, and they might just get him an Adams nom.
Pat asks: "Sharks struggles continue into late November despite their good possession numbers. Are they going to right the ship or should the team/fans be worried?"
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"Struggles" is a relative term, I think.
They're not absolutely crushing the competition, but they're only fifth in the West as of this writing, and kinda-sorta tied for the division lead. Nice that they're in a weak division and if these guys can just get into the playoffs, they're gonna be a tough out.
That said, you need guys like Erik Karlsson , Evander Kane , and Joe Thornton to be better. You need Martin Jones to be at least league-average (and he's not close.. they should give Aaron Dell more reps for sure). You need a power play with this much talent to be as lights-out as the PK has been.
That, to me, says there's plenty of wiggle room to figure it out. And like I said, the division will probably give them plenty of runway to do that.
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Sticking with the Pacific…
Southern Point asks: "Are the Flames dangerous if their goaltending stabilizes or are they just mediocre in a bad division?"
I mean they look dangerous even if it doesn't, y'know?
Great underlying numbers pretty much across the board, soft division as you and I both said, lots of talent that can keep them going even if they hit a bit of a rut.
I've been banging the drum all season that Big Save Dave Rittich (.930) should be getting way more games than Mike Smith , who despite his .883 save percentage still has 14 starts to Rittich's 10.
I don't think anyone in the world believes Rittich is anywhere close to this good in real life, but he's the hot hand and even if he's only league-average the rest of the way, that's still better than anything Smith gives you, full stop.
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Lemaire Watch: "How much more rope does John Hynes have left?"
I'm inclined to say "not much," because the team's just not that good on paper and they can't get a save.
Neither are his fault, really, but as we've seen this year, that fact doesn't keep coaches employed when they're near the bottom of the standings.
Unfortunately for the Devils and Hynes, they have a bruuuuuuuuuutal stretch coming up: At Washington, hosting Winnipeg and Tampa, a California trip, hosting Vegas, at Nashville, hosting Toronto, at Columbus.
Would anyone be surprised to see them go 2-7-1 in that stretch? That'll get ya fired for sure.
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Eh asks: "What do you think the Flyers should do going forward? Try and improve what's there or just burn it down?"
Unless they're trading for a goaltender, which is theoretically possible I guess, I don't see a lot of room for these guys to take a step this year.
They have talent, no doubt. Both up front and on the blue line, they have at least three guys where you'd go, "I want him on my team." They have a good pipeline of prospects, too. But trying to trade some of them of them to salvage a postseason run with this group? No thanks.
Optimistically, if everything goes right the rest of the way, this is probably like the sixth-best team in the East this season, right? Maybe they win a round, if they make the playoffs, which they probably won't. They'd need to play at a 108-point pace to get to 96 points.
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Might as well throw in the towel and trade everyone on an expiring deal, plus maybe Gudas and Weise if someone wants them.
(Not that they'll do it, of course. The Flyers never tank.)
Greg asks: "What active goalies would you put in the Hall of Fame?"
Pretty limited number in the league right now, but a bunch of guys I'd put in the maybe pile.
For those who don't know, this was prompted by (I think) a Sportsnet thing asking who of Lundqvist, Fleury, and Luongo you'd put in.
I can see the argument for all three, but for me it's only Lundqvist and Luongo. Put half the goalies in the league on those Penguins teams and you probably still get three Cups out of them. Maybe even more.
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Luongo and Lundqvist are my only "hard yes" goalies among active players.
Other than that, I'm a maybe on guys like Crawford (Cups), Rask (his save percentage is the highest of any goalie since 2005-06), Sergei Bobrovsky (jury's still out but he looks like he could be great for a while yet), maybe maybe Carey Price depending on how the next few seasons go.
Other than that, I don't have a lot of time for arguments in favor of Pekka Rinne, Ryan Miller, Jon Quick or anyone else, really.
There are a couple younger goalies (John Gibson, for instance) where I think we just need a few more years of resume-building before we can say one way or the other.
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I'm not normally a "Small Hall" guy, but I dunno, maybe I am when it comes to goalies.
Telfo asks: "What team(s) should be looking to acquire Kovalchuk?"
Anyone who needs a scoring winger, basically. My understanding is that Kovalchuk, who has a full no-move clause for the next two seasons (and only has to submit a seven-team trade list in 2020-21), doesn't really want to leave LA.
Now maybe you say if he keeps getting fourth-line minutes from Willie Desjardins, that might change his tune, but I think everyone on earth sees the Desjardins thing as an increasingly temporary arrangement. Point is: I don't think Kovalchuk's going anywhere any time soon.
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Anyway, to answer your question of who should try to trade for him: The Bruins. They tried like hell this summer and boy their offense could use a boost, especially in the absence of Patrice Bergeron.
And maybe if they can somehow acquire Kovalchuk, all the Boston media guys will finally stop trying to put Pastrnak with Krejci.
Something to think about.
Ryan Lambert is a Yahoo Sports hockey columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.
All stats via Corsica unless noted otherwise. Some questions in the mailbag are edited for clarity or to remove swear words, which are illegal to use.
