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Would OKC Thunder be better off facing Clippers or Mavericks in NBA playoffs?
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- Would OKC Thunder be better off facing Clippers or Mavericks in NBA playoffs?
The Thunder has the luxury of resting up before Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals next Tuesday while the Clippers and Mavericks , OKC 's possible opponents, are still beating each other up in Round 1.
Both matchups would be ripe with storylines. We'll either have an SGA vs. Luka battle along I-35 or we'll spend plenty of time revisiting the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander/Paul George trade , which created a monster in OKC.
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Which team would OKC rather face in the second round : the Clippers or Mavericks?
Thunder beat writer Joel Lorenzi and columnist Joe Mussatto talk it out:
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LA Clippers' Russell Westbrook (0) drives to the basket against the Thunder at Paycom Center on Dec. 21, 2023.
Kawhi Leonard 's injury status makes Clippers vulnerable
Lorenzi:OKC should be praying for the Clippers to pull through. That felt like the case even before Kawhi Leonard's lingering injury.
Neither the Clippers nor the Mavericks are the teams they were in December, looking drastically different since the All-Star break.
Dallas has turned in a better defensive rating and created a sizeable gap in net rating between L.A. since then. Its deadline additions have seemingly changed the complexion of the squad, adding to the already respectable ceiling that Year 2 of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving was shaping up to be. Those two have accentuated each other well. Luka is Luka, and Irving is thriving in what might be his most important sidekick role yet.
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Jan 16, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; LA Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2) passes the ball against Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren (7) in the first half at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
A healthy Kawhi Leonard makes Clippers dangerous
Mussatto:If Leonard was healthy, I think the Clippers would be the more difficult matchup. He of course is not healthy, dealing with inflammation in his right knee, and nobody (including Ty Lue and the Clippers) knows when or if Leonard will return in these playoffs. So I'm with you, Joel. Dallas is the more dangerous team right now.
Here's what's scary for the Thunder in this matchup: In the only game against the Thunder in which both Doncic and Irving played, Dallas obliterated OKC by 35 points. In two games against OKC, Doncic averaged 34 points, 13.5 assists and 11.5 rebounds while shooting 56% overall, including 43% from 3-point range.
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And yet ... I still lean OKC if that's the series. Despite Doncic's gaudy numbers against the Thunder, I often think back to the beginning of last season when Doncic called Lu Dort a top-three defender in the NBA. Defending Doncic is a team assignment, but on a one-on-one level, few humans are better equipped to defend Doncic than Dort.
I know Doncic and Irving are all-world guys, but who's the Mavs' third-best player? He's not as good as Chet Holmgren or Jalen Williams .
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Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) scores over Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) during the first half at American Airlines Center in Dallas on Feb. 10.
Thunder would have hands full with Luka Doncic
Lorenzi:I think the idea of what the Clippers are at their peak, winners of nine straight December games and an offensive juggernaut with seemingly figured out, is probably scarier. But this isn't that.
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I think what benefits Dallas more here is some semblance of mystery. The missing data points, a pair of games with one of its two high-usage stars missing.
Still, Doncic is a pick-and-roll maestro. Irving took Chet Holmgren out of his drop coverage rather quickly in the game he starred in in OKC. Even in a series Doncic hasn't necessarily thrived in to his standards, Irving has popped. That was the case down the stretch of the season too, with the two appearing as one of the most dynamic pairs of closers in the NBA.
Add in Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II , a revolving door of lob threats, and those two are cooking with gas. Gafford hasn't necessarily popped in the first round, but his presence means everything. He makes OKC's tradeoffs tougher to live with; In the pair of active games he matched up with the Thunder in post-deadline, he averaged 19 points and 12 boards, hounding the offensive glass and catching lobs.
Gafford and Lively's threats as roll men seemingly provoke OKC's defensive rotations more. The Clippers have eaten the crumbs left in the corners, shooting better there (61.9%) than in the restricted area (52.8% on 29.7 attempts) against the Thunder. The Mavs shot 77% near the restricted area in the three games that mattered.
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Think there are ways to limit each, and if each series dwindles down to defending either team's isolations, which the Clipper vs Mavs series has to a degree, Dort and Williams with Holmgren behind them feels like a safe bet after Round 1.
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Thunder on right side of bracket regardless
Mussatto:I would be super intrigued by how Holmgren and OKC match up with Dallas' bigs. Jonas Valanciunas : Not exactly a lob threat. It'll be a whole different game with Doncic and Irving collapsing the defense and having the option to throw it up to Gafford or Lively.
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On the other side, Ivica Zubac is probably a better all-around player than Valanciunas, but I'm not sure Zubac would inflict the same physical toll.
Bottom line: Luka and Kyrie are scarier than Paul George and James Harden.
Still, you'd much rather be on this side of the bracket than facing either Denver or Minnesota in Round 2. OKC is going to have more than a week off before Game 1 on Tuesday, and I think the Thunder, more so than wanting to see the Clippers or Mavericks from a matchup perspective, just want to see this series go seven.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Would Thunder be better off facing Clippers or Mavericks in playoffs?
