Can Texas Tech football make hay with manageable schedule? Our game-by-game predictions

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Can Texas Tech football make hay with manageable schedule? Our game-by-game predictions

Don Williams, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal · Lubbock Avalanche-Journal

Tue, Aug 20, 2024 ·

6 min read

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The Texas Tech football team failed to meet expectations last year, needing a victory in the Independence Bowl just to go 7-6. The Red Raiders were ranked to start the 2023 season with an optimism meter higher than it had been in more than a decade, both inside and outside the program.

This year? Expectations are more in check, but seven of Tech's first eight opponents had losing records last season. Even with Tech picked ninth in the Big 12, the schedule is so favorable the Red Raiders could well finish better than they did last season.

Will they? Let's take a look.

Aug. 31:Abilene Christian

Last year:Did not play. Abilene Christian went 5-6, 3-3 in the United Athletic Conference.

The buzz:Former Texas Tech defensive coordinator Keith Patterson returns to Lubbock as head coach of ACU, where he's 12-10 in two seasons. So do a couple of Wildcats staff members and seven former Red Raiders players, among them quarterback Maverick McIvor and wide receivers Trey Cleveland and Nehemiah Martinez.

The pick:Texas Tech 44, Abilene Christian 14

Sept. 7:at Washington State

Last year:Did not play. Washington State went 5-7, 2-7 in the Pac-12.

The buzz:Week 2 was going to be a road game at Oregon. Instead, Texas Tech cooperated in helping Oregon and Oregon State, no longer Pac-12 rivals, continue their series as nonconference opponents. It's probably not the worst thing to play Washington State instead, subbing out the team that finished second in the Pac-12 last year for one that finished tied for eighth.

The pick:Texas Tech 34, Washington State 31

Sept. 14:North Texas

Last year:Did not play. North Texas went 5-7, 3-5 in the American Athletic Conference.

The buzz:UNT caused a lot of trouble for Tech in the past, but the Mean Green face an uphill climb under second-year coach Eric Morris, the former Red Raiders receiver. A dreadful defense yielded at least 35 points eight times last season. It got worse in the offseason with UNT's best weapons hitting the transfer portal: 3,000-yard passer Chandler Rogers to California, 1,000-yard receiver Jay Maclin to Kentucky and 1,000-yard rusher Ayo Adeyi to James Madison.

The pick:Texas Tech 48, North Texas 12

Sept. 21:Arizona State

Last year:Did not play. Arizona State went 3-9, 2-7 in the Pac-12.

The buzz:What better way to open Big 12 play than with home games against the teams picked last (ASU) and third from last ( Cincinnati ) in a 16-team conference? The Sun Devils, fortified by transfer-portal additions, are trying to do a quick turnaround under second-year coach Kenny Dillingham, but they needed to. They averaged less than 18 points per game last year and were non-competitive in losses to Fresno State, Utah, Oregon and Arizona.

The pick:Texas Tech 34, Arizona State 24

Sept. 28:Cincinnati

Last year:Did not play. Cincinnati went 3-9, 1-8 in the Big 12.

The buzz:The Big 12 had eight 1,000-yard rushers last season, six return and two are Texas Tech's Tahj Brooks and Cincinnati's Corey Kiner. Kiner benefits by the return of his starting offensive line, including all-American guard Luke Kandra, and new quarterback Brendan Sorsby, a part-time starter for Indiana last year as a redshirt freshman.

The pick:Texas Tech 29, Cincinnati 20

Oct. 5:at Arizona

Last year:Did not play. Arizona went 10-3, 7-2 in the Pac-12.

The buzz:So much for the smorgasbord of easy opponents. Arizona walked in the door with Big 12 credibility after a breakout 2023 season that ended with a 38-24 conquest of Oklahoma at the Alamo Bowl. Coach Jedd Fisch left for Washington, so new coach Brent Brennan must prove himself. The Wildcats have some of the Big 12's most high-end talent, though, in quarterback Noah Fifita, wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan , linebacker Jacob Manu and cornerback Tacario Davis.

The pick:Arizona 40, Texas Tech 28

Nov 11, 2023; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes cornerback Travis Hunter (12) tackles Arizona Wildcats wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan (4) in the second half at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Oct. 19:Baylor

Last year:Texas Tech won 39-14. Baylor went 3-9, 2-7 in the Big 12.

The buzz:Tech coach Joey McGuire has a fondness for Baylor, the program that got him started in college coaching from 2017-21. No mercy to the reeling, though. The Bears are that, having lost 13 of 16 games dating to 2022 and putting Dave Aranda high on coaching hot-seat lists.

The pick:Texas Tech 37, Baylor 20

Oct. 26:at TCU

Last year:Texas Tech won 35-28. TCU went 5-7, 3-6 in the Big 12.

The buzz:TCU had beaten Tech four games in a row and five of six before the Red Raiders turned the tables last year in Lubbock. Now the Red Raiders have to show they're a different team from the one that's gone 3-8 on the road under Joey McGuire the past two years. McGuire visited Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell this offseason for advice on how to do better.

The pick:Texas Tech 31, TCU 27

Nov. 2:at Iowa State

Last year:Did not play. Iowa State went 7-6, 6-3 in the Big 12.

The buzz:Tech needs to have stockpiled a lot of victories before the calendar turns to November. Three of the last four regular-season opponents are coming off winning seasons, and the Red Raiders play two on the road. Late-season trips to Iowa State are often a challenge. The Cyclones ambushed a Patrick Mahomes team 66-10 in 2016, and Tech pulled out a 14-10 victory at Jack Trice Stadium two years ago when it was 11 degrees at game's end.

The pick:Iowa State 34, Texas Tech 30

Nov. 9:Colorado

Last year:Did not play. Colorado went 4-8, 1-8 in the Pac-12.

The buzz:Colorado's first trip to Lubbock since 2007 comes with Deion Sanders in charge of the Buffaloes, a possible pump-up for ticket sales. The Buffaloes were unpredictable in 2023's Year 1 under Sanders, winning their first three games, getting ranked and then losing eight of their last nine. They have some future NFL talents, however, including quarterback Shedeur Sanders , and lost a lot of close games to good teams.

The pick:Texas Tech 45, Colorado 38

Mike Gundy is 166-79 in 20 years as Oklahoma State coach. The Cowboys have won 12 of their last 14 games against Texas Tech.

Nov. 23:at Oklahoma State

Last year:Did not play. Oklahoma State went 10-4, 7-2 in the Big 12.

The buzz:A lot's changed with the Big 12, but a Texas Tech-Oklahoma State game feels the same. In a series Tech once dominated, the Red Raiders need to right themselves, having lost three in a row and 12 of 14. That is far from a given considering the Cowboys are a top-20 team forecast to finish third in the Big 12.

The pick:Oklahoma State 41, Texas Tech 34

Nov. 30:West Virginia

Last year:West Virginia won 20-13. West Virginia went 9-4, 6-3 in the Big 12.

The buzz:The Mountaineers' victory last year in Morgantown snapped the Red Raiders' four-game win streak in the series. WVU finished 9-4 and returns a relatively experienced team. Quarterback Garrett Greene and running backs Jahiem White and C.J. Donaldson combined for 2,412 yards rushing — each right around 800 yards — and 28 touchdowns on the ground. Could Tech go undefeated at home for the first time since 2008?

The pick:West Virginia 31, Texas Tech 28

Dec 27, 2023; Charlotte, NC, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Garrett Greene (6) runs the ball against the North Carolina Tar Heels during the first half at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Can Texas Tech football make hay on tame schedule? A game-by-game look

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