(This story was updated with new information.)
CLEMSON — Clemson football dropped from No. 12 to No. 17 in the fifth College Football Playoff rankings, released Tuesday night.
Clemson would earn an automatic bid to the CFP if it defeats SMU (11-1) in the ACC championship on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, ABC) in Charlotte at Bank of America Stadium.
The Tigers knew that.
However, the Tigers would not be guaranteed a first-round bye with a win unlike SMU. This scenario could happen if No. 10 Boise State beats No. 20 UNLV in the Mountain West championship and whoever wins the Big 12 championship between No. 15 Arizona State and No. 16 Iowa State . It would come down to where the CFP committee ranks Clemson and the Big 12 champion on Sunday.
CFP committee chair Warde Manuel said Tuesday he can't foresee if Clemson would usurp the Big 12 champion, until the conference championship games play out.
"What I can't do is tell you where they'll be ranked if that happens, and they beat SMU," Manuel said. "I can't get into, sort of, evaluating what could happen. We just try to stay in the present and not look to the future as we evaluate what each team has done during the season."
According to ESPN's playoff predictor, Clemson has a 42% chance to make the CFP. The predictor also calculated Clemson having a 14% chance to land a first-round bye and a 27% chance to be a first-round visitor.
The final CFP field will be announced on Sunday.
The Tigers are in this position after losing 17-14 to in-state rival South Carolina last week at Memorial Stadium. They received another chance at the CFP by making it to the ACC title game, thanks to Syracuse upsetting Miami .
Clemson is ranked No. 17 the US LBM Coaches Poll and No. 18 in the AP Top 25 .
College Football Playoff bracket: Who's in, who's out
No. 1 Oregon (Big Ten champion), No. 2 Texas (SEC), No. 3 SMU (ACC) and No. 4 Boise State (Mountain West) earned first-round byes in the fourth rankings.
Boise State would face the winner of a first-round matchup between No. 5 Penn State and No. 12 Arizona State in the next stage.
Oregon would face the winner of a first-round matchup between No. 8 Ohio State and No. 9 Tennessee in the next stage.
SMU would face the winner of a first-round matchup between No. 6 Notre Dame and No. 11 Alabama in the next stage.
Texas would face the winner of a first-round matchup between No. 7 Georgia and No. 10 Indiana in the next stage.
Latest CFP rankings
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Oregon
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Texas
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Penn State
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Notre Dame
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Georgia
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Ohio State
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Tennessee
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SMU
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Indiana
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Boise State
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Alabama
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Miami
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South Carolina
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Arizona State
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Iowa State
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Clemson
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UNLV
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Syracuse
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Army West Point
Clemson's projected CFP opponent
Clemson does not have a projected College Football Playoff opponent. It will face an opponent in a bowl game , unless it beats SMU in the ACC championship.
More: Why Syracuse coach Fran Brown called Dabo Swinney on FaceTime after Orange shocked Miami
How many teams in College Football Playoff 2024?
This is the first year of the 12-team format for the CFP, with four first-round and four quarterfinal games added to the CFP slate.
The top four ranked conference champions will get a first-round bye, while those seeded Nos. 5-8 will host first-round games in December. The seeds will be laid out via the final CFP rankings when they are revealed on Dec. 8.
When next College Football Playoff rankings come out
The final CFP rankings reveal is Dec. 8 on Selection Sunday (noon ET, ESPN).
Derrian Carter covers Clemson athletics for The Greenville News and the USA TODAY Network. Email him at dcarter@gannett.com and follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @DerrianCarter00
This article originally appeared on Greenville News: Clemson in CFP rankings: Latest bracket, playoff picture, what to know

