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Why Texas Tech basketball can, can't make Sweet 16 of 2024 NCAA Tournament
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- Why Texas Tech basketball can, can't make Sweet 16 of 2024 NCAA Tournament
Grant McCasland and the Texas Tech basketball team can now turn their attention to the 2024 NCAA Tournament following a successful debut season as a unit.
The Red Raiders (23-10) will open tournament play Thursday night in PPG Paints Arena at Pittsburgh when they take on 11-seed NC State. The winner of that game will take on the winner between No. 3 Kentucky and No. 14 Oakland .
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Texas Tech left little doubt their presence would be felt in March Madness, but just how long can the team stick around the Big Dance? Let's take a look.
2 reasons Texas Tech basketball can make Sweet 16
Improved defense continues
McCasland came to Texas Tech known as a defensive-minded coach, one who learned from previous Red Raider leading men Chris Beard and Mark Adams. For much of the season, the defense was actually an Achilles' heel, an area that needed to be carried by an elite-level offense.
That hasn't been the case over the last few weeks. The Red Raiders have become an aggressive, scrappy defensive team over the last five games, which resulted in four wins. It's a result of tweaks made with Robert Jennings and Eemeli Yalaho manning the middle rather than Warren Washington , who has missed the last six games and 9 of the team's last 12 overall (one being due to illness). Continuing that defensive presence, which has helped the offense get back on track, would be the ticket.
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The 3-pointer is the great equalizer
A cold month of February (for many reasons) gave way to renewed efficiency from the 3-point line. Texas Tech has gone 43-of-113 (38%) from distance in the month of March. Teams that shoot well, and have a solid enough defense to complement it, have the best odds to making a run in the NCAA Tournament.
GUT REACTION: Texas Tech basketball vs. NC State in March Madness: Prediction for 2024 NCAA Tournament opener
2 reasons Texas Tech basketball can't make Sweet 16
Injuries a problem on multiple fronts
While it could be assumed that at least Darrion Williams will be back for the Red Raiders — he was minutes away from playing in the semifinals of the Big 12 Tournament — Washington's status remains a mystery. McCasland said Sunday that Washington (foot) has started ramping up his efforts to return but how effective he'll be in live game action won't be known until the time finally comes.
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Much of Tech's potential hinges on the team's health. However, there's the other angle of it where bringing injured players back into the fold doesn't always happen seamlessly. Baylor head coach Scott Drew said as much after the regular-season finale that Tech would have an adjustment period when Washington returns.
By the time Texas Tech tips against NC State on Thursday, Washington will have played 12 minutes, 34 seconds in a span of 38 days. And the Red Raiders have found a renewed energy on defense by changing how it plays, which would probably change again when Washington does return. Texas Tech's best stretch of the season on defense has come with Washington on the sidelines. Adding him back into the fold could revert things back a bit.
McCasland and the Red Raiders certainly won't tell Washington to stay out. He's still an important aspect of the team on both ends of the floor, and having his size alone could be the difference against either NC State or possibly Kentucky. But there is a risk that the team can't find a rhythm with him back on the floor.
NC State, Kentucky present different matchup problems
Weak teams aren't able to win five games in five days, even if the ACC isn't the juggernaut it once was. NC State came up with wins over Duke, Virginia and North Carolina , a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament, to earn its way into the dance.
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It's not unheard of for teams to be mediocre for most of the season then find a spark in March. It's the basis for most of Syracuse's NCAA Tournament bids post-Carmelo Anthony. It brought the Kemba Walker-led Connecticut team a national title -- the Huskies also won five games in five days in the 2011 Big East Tournament. When you're hot, you're hot, and it's sometimes hard to cool a team like the Wolfpack down.
And if the Red Raiders can rain on NC State's parade, they'll (likely) get a Kentucky team that has one of the best offenses in the country. Though defensively challenged, which would benefit Tech's also stellar offense, Kentucky's outside shooting and size would put Texas Tech's much-improved defense to the ultimate test.
WHAT THEY'RE SAYING: Selection Sunday: Texas Tech basketball fans react as team nets No. 6 seed, takes on NC State
Prediction for how far Texas Tech basketball will go in 2024 NCAA Tournament
Each of these things needs to be considered when looking at Texas Tech's potential in the NCAA Tournament. The defense and 3-point shooting have each improved enough to make it into the second weekend, and perhaps beyond. The unknown of how much impact Williams and Washington can have on the team brings some concern, as does how the team will mesh if Washington is able to make his return. The Red Raiders should be able to handle NC State in a fun game, but Kentucky has a bit more fire power to throw at Tech.
Prediction:Second round exit
This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: March Madness: Why Texas Tech basketball can, can't make Sweet 16
