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5 bold Texas Tech football predictions for 2024 season
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- 5 bold Texas Tech football predictions for 2024 season
The time has come for the Texas Tech football team to kick off the 2024 campaign, looking to right some wrongs from a season ago.
The preseason buzz that surrounded the Red Raiders last season is not there this time around, but that could be to the team's benefit in Joey McGuire's third year as head coach . Flying a bit under the radar has never hurt anybody. It allows Texas Tech to create its own narratives as the season goes along.
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What will those narratives be? Here are five bold predictions for the Red Raiders in 2024 that could help shape them.
Tahj Brooks won't become Texas Tech football's all-time leading rusher
We'll start with one that might be considered the biggest hot take among Tech fans — and maybe coaches, too.
Tech has devoted an entire marketing campaign around Tahj Brooks' chase to become the program's all-time leading rusher. He needs 1,168 yards to achieve this feat, an average of just under 100 yards per game for the regular season. Seems reasonable for someone who averaged 118.3 yards/game in 2023.
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However, last year's offensive line was much more experienced than this year's group will be. Tech is projected to have multiple first-time starters up front. Will that unit be able to sustain the same kind of run blocking for Brooks as last year's group?
More: Best-case scenario for Texas Tech football in 2024 season: Healthy Morton, happy Tahj
More: Worst-case scenario for Texas Tech football in 2024: QB health remains a problem
There's also the question on what kind of system offensive coordinator Zach Kittley wants to run. He came from Western Kentucky, which was a pass-heavy operation. He's admitted calling as many run plays as he did last year was tough, though it came from the circumstances of quarterback injuries and Brooks being a machine. Will he be as willing to call those runs when he has more options at receiver and tight end to work with?
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If Brooks doesn't get the bulk of these 1,168 yards in the first seven or eight games, the chances of it happening in the regular season start to go down. Would Tech keep force feeding Brooks the ball just so they can hold up their promise to getting the record, potentially costing them games down the stretch?
Red Raiders become bowl eligible before Halloween
Joseph Adedire and Ben Roberts of Texas Tech tackle Bucky Irving of the Oregon Ducks during the second half of the game at Jones AT&T Stadium on September 09, 2023 in Lubbock, Texas.
How do I put this nicely? Texas Tech's first half of the schedule leaves much to be desired, though it's not entirely their fault. They played nice in helping Oregon and Oregon State keep their rivalry alive, so they have Washington State now — given Tech's recent history on the road, this could be more challenging than it appears. And McGuire didn't schedule Arizona State and Cincinnati in back-to-back games to open conference play. The Big 12 gave the Red Raiders that gift.
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The long and short of it is, at the very least, the Red Raiders should be 5-1 heading into their first open date of the season, which comes the week of Oct. 12. After that, there's a home date with Baylor on Oct. 19 and a road trip to TCU on Oct. 26, both winnable games. It should be a far cry from Tech having to stress throughout November just to get into the postseason.
If Texas Tech isn't at least 6-2 by the time Linus waits for the Great Pumpkin, something went wrong.
Three receivers have at least 600 yards for the season, but which ones?
This is, of course, assuming Behren Morton is able to stay on the field all season . If my first prediction comes true and Brooks doesn't get the rushing record, then that would mean the offense starts airing the ball out quite a bit more, and there are plenty of options in that regard.
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The last time Tech had three receivers go for 600 yards or more in the same season was 2018, when Antoine Wesley (1,410), Ja'Deion High (804) and T.J. Vasher (687) accomplished that feat. Last year's leading receiver was Xavier White, whose 556 yards were the lowest for the Red Raiders' top ball retriever for a season since running back Sammy Morris had 386 yards in 1999. That won't happen this year.
There are four main options to reach the 600-yard mark this season in Josh Kelly , Caleb Douglas , Coy Eakin and Micah Hudson . Give me Kelly, Douglas and Eakin as the guys to get it done. But why stop there? Kelly will lead in yards, becoming Tech's first 1,000-yard receiver since Wesley, Eakin will lead in catches and Douglas in touchdowns.
Coy Eakin of Texas Tech is tackled by Channing Canada of TCU after a catch during the third quarter of at Jones AT&T Stadium on November 02, 2023 in Lubbock, Texas.
The defense will be fine but inconsistent
Most of the preseason talk surrounding the Texas Tech defense is the volume of players that could see significant time on the field. Coaches have said they expect about six or seven interior linemen to take the field most weeks, similar to the outside linebacking corps.
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Going into the season, the alphas of the defense, if you will, look to be Ben Roberts and Jacob Rodriguez. The linebacking duo will carry a heavy load and set the foundation in the middle. After that, there are a lot of question marks about who will step up and show out.
This isn't to say guys won't step up throughout the season. It'll just be inconsistent on who they are from game to game. And if that's inconsistent, the play of the defense as a whole will be as well. It won't be detrimental to the team, just an issue that pops up.
One of Tech's top assistants will become a head coach elsewhere
For clarity, this refers to associate head coach Kenny Perry, defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter and offensive coordinator Zach Kittley. The best bet here would be Kittley since he's still pretty young, having just turned 33, and has a good offensive mind. Schools love hiring that kind of prototype to rebuild a program.
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DeRuyter last spent time as head coach at Fresno State from 2012-16. The Bulldogs were 20-6 in his first two years at the helm but went just 10-14 in the final two. Beginning his coaching career as a graduate assistant at Air Force in 1985, maybe DeRuyter looks for one more shot as a leading man.
Perry, who leads the special teams and running backs, is someone who would easily win the introductory press conference. He takes his job seriously, but not himself, as quick with a joke as he is in breaking down run schemes. Perry did interview for the UTEP job before returning to Tech this year, so he seems closest to getting the call, at least right now.
All three are under contract through the 2025 season , though their respective buyout clauses are manageable for even the most modest of schools that could hire them away.
Bonus: Raider Alley concert series will kick up a few notches this year
No disrespect to Smash Mouth, but the last few years of the Raider Alley pre-game concert series have lacked quality. Something tells me that's going to change in 2024. The first concert of the season will be Natasha Bedingfield, which is pretty good start.
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Throwing some names out into the ether, let me make some suggestions for other pre-game concerts I'd love to see: the return of Savage Garden, Tevin Campbell reprising his role as Powerline from "A Goofy Movie," K-Ci & JoJo, perhaps a nice Hanson, Corey Feldman and his angels, Craig David, Flo Rida (he's probably more affordable than you may think) and the G.O.A.T Michelle Branch.
This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Texas Tech football: 5 bold predictions for 2024 season
