With conference championship games over, most of the College Football Playoff field is set, barring seeding changes.
It appears there will be a lot of debate, however, on which team gets the final at-large spot, as it seems to be between Alabama football and SMU .
It'll be interesting to see if the CFP committee follows suit with the US LBM Coaches Poll and the AP Top 25 poll, which both ranked Alabama at No. 11, one spot ahead of SMU at No. 12.
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If Alabama earns a spot in the inaugural 12-team CFP, it will be the lone three-loss team to make the field with an at-large bid. The CFP committee ranked Ole Miss and South Carolina at Nos. 13 and No. 14, respectively, in the CFP rankings after the regular season. CFP selection committee chairman Warde Manuel said on Tuesday those teams won't jump Alabama after conference championship week, as none of the three three-loss teams in contention were in action Saturday.
Clemson earned an automatic bid to the CFP after winning the ACC over SMU on Saturday night, although the Tigers have three losses.
First-year coach Kalen DeBoer and Alabama made things harder for themselves after falling to Oklahoma 24-3 on the road in their second-to-last regular season game of the season, as the Crimson Tide would almost assuredly be in the CFP with only two losses on the year.
With that, Alabama needed help from the ACC to ensure it would make the CFP.
But SMU, ranked No. 8 in the penultimate rankings, fell 34-31 to No. 17 Clemson on Saturday. With the win, the Tigers won the ACC and will likely be slotted in as the No. 12 team in the final CFP bracket. But what of SMU? Will the committee drop the Mustangs behind the Crimson Tide , or choose not to punish them for falling in the ACC title game?
Here's what to know of Alabama's College Football Playoff chances with SMU's loss on Saturday:
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Alabama needs to hope the CFP committee values the Crimson Tide's resume over the Mustangs'.
Alabama's situation became a bit less clear as a bubble team, as Clemson stole a bid by winning the ACC championship, since the Tigers entered Saturday ranked No. 17 and were all but eliminated from at-large contention. However, a win likely made them the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, slotting them in as the No. 12 seed in the 12-team bracket.
SMU's loss puts it in at-large contention, and now Alabama must hope the Mustangs fall behind it in the CFP rankings. SMU entered conference championship week ranked No. 8, whereas Alabama is No. 11.
Alabama hopes the CFP committee follows suit with the Coaches and AP polls, as both ranked Alabama at No. 11, one spot higher than SMU at No. 12. If the committee follows the trend, the Crimson Tide will get the final spot in the CFP, with SMU as the first team out.
Of note: Manuel said on Nov. 19 that the selection committee holds teams that make their respective conference title games in "high esteem," suggesting it wouldn't punish teams that lost in the conference championship by dropping them out of the 12-team CFP bracket.
"We're going to evaluate the games and how teams play and the performance on the field," Manuel said . "That's what the commissioners have asked us to do. They didn't ask us to stop right before the championship game, they asked us to rank the teams through the championship game. And I think you can see over the years how the committee has valued those championship games, and who stays in, and where they're ranked."
SMU and Alabama will find how true those words ring on Sunday.
Alabama's CFP hopes come down to how the committee thinks its three-loss SEC resume, which includes two losses to 6-6 teams, stacks up against SMU's two-loss resume that features no top-25 wins.
Here's how the teams' resumes stack up according to ESPN's Football Power Index:
Team records:Alabama 9-3 | SMU 11-2
Strength of record:Alabama No. 10 | SMU No. 9
Strength of schedule:Alabama No. 18 | SMU No. 75
FPI:Alabama No. 4 | SMU No. 12
Record vs. top 25:Alabama 3-1 | SMU 0-2
Here are the latest CFP rankings, which released prior to conference championship week:
Oregon (12-0)
Texas (11-1)
Penn State (11-1)
Notre Dame (11-1)
Georgia (10-2)
Ohio State (10-2)
Tennessee (10-2)
SMU (11-1)
Indiana (11-1)
Boise State (12-1)
Alabama (9-3)
Miami (10-2)
Ole Miss (9-3)
South Carolina (9-3)
Arizona State (10-2)
Iowa State (10-2)
Clemson (9-3)
BYU (10-2)
Missouri (9-3)
UNLV (10-2)
Illinois (9-3)
Syracuse (9-3)
Colorado (9-3)
Army (10-1)
Memphis (10-2)
This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Can Alabama make CFP? What SMU loss to Clemson means for Crimson Tide
