Consider an Alabama berth in the College Football Playoff a safe bet under two conditions: 1) the Crimson Tide closes out the regular season without another loss, and 2) it doesn't reach the SEC Championship Game. The former would be a playoff eliminator, while the latter would jeopardize the berth by requiring another win over a very formidable opponent.
That picture needs three more weeks to clear up, but so does another: would Alabama, under those circumstances, play at home or on the road in the CFP's first round? The line between hosting and traveling is drawn between the eighth and ninth playoff seeds. The Crimson Tide , currently the CFP's 10th-ranked team, would need to climb two more spots to play at home. But none of its its remaining opponents — FCS Mercer, 5-5 Oklahoma and 3-6 Auburn — are leapfrog opportunities. For a 10-2 Alabama team to play at Bryant-Denny Stadium in a first-round game, it'll need some attrition among the teams ranked ahead of it.
There's not a two-loss team ranked ahead of Alabama, so for now, it needs a deeper pool of two-loss teams that it can elbow out with its strength of schedule. An Indiana win over Ohio State on Nov. 23 would do that, as would a Georgia win over Tennessee this weekend, although the selection committee could be reticent to move Alabama ahead of UT because of its loss in Knoxville. UA fans could find themselves rooting for a Texas A&M win over Texas on Nov. 30, as well. A second loss for Texas would shine a bright light on a schedule that would do the Longhorns no favors.
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DaShawn Jones' first big adjustment with Alabama was in transferring from Wake Forest, where the Demon Deacons secondary played Cover 4 (zone quarters), to the Crimson Tide's system under new defensive coordinator Kane Wommack, which is more of a mix of man-to-man and Cover 3 principles. That's come fairly easily, but now he's got a new transition to make that's more challenging. Jones has been seeing action at the Husky position (nickelback) of late, a role he never played at Wake Forest and was unfamiliar with until he began getting practice reps in recent weeks. For Jones, it means staying with slot receivers, but also covering tight ends and taking on more blocks.
"I embraced it. I was pretty confident in myself as a versatile player, so I felt like I could get that job done for the team," Jones said.
"The Husky position, you're in the box more, you're going to make more (tackles)."
FCS Mercer is such a prohibitive underdog against Alabama this week, oddsmakers aren't even offering a betting line. From a competitive standpoint, however, Crimson Tide fans in attendance can at least know they're seeing the nation's most dominant defense at that level. The Bears defense is ranked No. 1 in the FBS (123 teams) in sacks (36), turnovers (28), interceptions (21), rush defense (54.7 yards per game), third-down conversions allowed (21.4%), tackles for loss (8.5 per game) and defensive touchdowns (six) ... Expect plenty of action for UA OG Geno VanDeMark on Saturday, perhaps even a start. Starting OG Jaeden Roberts has been hobbled all season and was banged up again against LSU . The Mercer game should be a chance to give Roberts some much-needed light duty. ... To whatever extent strength of schedule impacts the CFP selection committee, a win over Mercer will hurt Alabama more than help it. Wins over FCS opponents, even a 9-1 team like the Bears, put a drag on an FBS school's SOS metrics.
Oklahoma president Joseph Harroz Jr. issued a vote of confidence this week for coach Brent Venables, whose team still isn't bowl eligible at 5-5. Nothing wrong with that, but it rang hollow when he tried to explain away a bad season by citing OU's adjustment to the changing landscape of college football. C'mon, Joe. Every school faced that adjustment. Some just adjusted better. ... Of all the SEC teams entering the weekend with two losses, Ole Miss has the easiest schedule to finish 10-2 and perhaps clinch a playoff berth. The Rebels are idle this week, then finish against reeling Florida and hapless Mississippi State . ... After a rough September, the SEC Spread Pick of the Week has battled back to climb over .500 for the season. This week, take the under on the LSU-Florida total (55). Season ATS:5-4-2 (.545). All-time ATS:26-8-3 (.743).
Tuscaloosa News columnist Chase Goodbread is also the weekly co-host of Crimson Cover TV on WVUA-23. Reach him at cgoodbread@gannett.com. Follow on X.com @chasegoodbread.
This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: What does Alabama football needs to land CFP home game? A little help
