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The Tuscaloosa News
Alabama football has risen from CFP ashes, and I was wrong to bury it | Goodbread
- Story byThe Tuscaloosa News
- Alabama football has risen from CFP ashes, and I was wrong to bury it | Goodbread
I didn't take a shovel to Norman, Okla., a couple weekends ago, but I most definitely brought one back.
Following Alabama football's disastrous performance in a 24-3 loss to the Sooners , I buried this team's College Football Playoff hopes six feet deep and piled on the dirt like everyone else. When Sooners linebacker Kip Lewis blew past Jalen Milroe 's infamous slide tackle thing for a game-clinching pick six, I turned to intrepid colleague Colin Gay in the press box, asked him how New Years Eve in Central Florida sounded (ReliaQuest Bowl or Citrus Bowl), and started shoveling one keystroke at a time.
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And since I swore three years ago that I wouldn't be the kind of sports columnist that slinks away from columns that steer readers wrong , as if they were never written, I'm here now to acknowledge: I blew it.
Because its clear now, after the CFP selection committee released its penultimate rankings Tuesday night, that Alabama 's shot at a berth in the inaugural 12-team playoff is not only alive, but thriving. Currently ranked 11th in CFP standings with only conference championship games remaining, the Crimson Tide 's chances look better than 50-50. Maybe a lot better.
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If SMU beats Clemson in Saturday's ACC Championship Game, it's safe to pencil Alabama in as a three-loss playoff participant, likely traveling to either Notre Dame, Texas or Penn State in the first round. If Clemson beats SMU and claims an automatic bid as ACC champion, the CFP selection committee's most scrutinized choice figures to come down to Alabama, or ACC runner-up SMU, which would be 11-2. But if selection committee chairman Warde Manuel's comments about why Alabama was moved ahead of Miami in this week's rankings are at all indicative, SMU could be in trouble regardless. Because some of the same strength-of-schedule logic Manuel used Tuesday night to explain the Crimson Tide's standing ahead of Miami could be applied this Sunday to explain why a 9-3 Alabama team is in, and an ACC runner-up SMU squad is out.
As if that weren't enough, Manuel was later directly asked if SMU could fall behind Alabama in the event of a loss to Clemson. His answer: "Potentially." What Manuel effectively said is that the notion that a conference-championship-game loss shouldn't eliminate an otherwise qualified team is "potentially" farcical. But of course, we knew that already.
It happened to Georgia just 12 months ago.
And if it can happen to an SEC blueblood in a four-team playoff, it can damned sure happen to SMU in a 12-team playoff. Based on history and brand and the undercurrent that makes the CFP mostly a Big Ten/SEC enterprise − you know, all the things the selection committee insists don't matter − Warde's comments came across as the last thing SMU wanted to hear.
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That's not to predict Alabama is 100% sure to make the playoff no matter what happens on Saturday. I'm 0-1 predicting Alabama's playoff fate already, and the lesson in that is to let more football unfold before making any declarations. But it's beyond obvious that declaring its CFP chances dead was premature.
The reality is that beating a 5-7 Auburn team at home didn't lift Alabama's playoff resume any higher than where it sank to in Norman, where my shovel was only one of many. Yet the very same Alabama team is now looking good to punch a playoff ticket. So how did we get here?
Florida 24, Ole Miss 17
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Auburn 43, Texas A&M 41
Syracuse 42, Miami 38
South Carolina 17, Clemson 14
All that chaos transpired over the last three weeks of the season, most of it over the last two weeks, to create just enough of a shake-up to put Alabama back on the playoff map.
The same team that flopped at Oklahoma .
The same one I wrote off.
Lesson learned.
Tuscaloosa News sport columnist Chase Goodbread.
Tuscaloosa News columnist Chase Goodbread is also the weekly co-host of Crimson Cover TV on WVUA-23. Reach him at cgoodbread@gannett.com. Follow on X.com @chasegoodbread.
This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Lesson learned from Alabama football's rise from CFP ashes
