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Alex Lange's 1st pitch is key to remain Detroit Tigers closer. Here's what the data shows
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- Alex Lange's 1st pitch is key to remain Detroit Tigers closer. Here's what the data shows
LAKELAND, Fla. — Detroit Tigers right-hander reliever Alex Lange declined to give away any secrets.
The 28-year-old, who struggled as the closer in the final four months of last season, wouldn't explain his plans for first pitches. The result of the first pitch Lange throws to hitters determines everything about the outcome of individual matchups.
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"I'm not going to give any insight into how I attack hitters before the season," Lange said.
Left-handed reliever Tyler Holton , a nearby observer in the clubhouse, laughed at the interaction and interrupted.
"Come on now," he said.
Detroit Tigers relief pitcher Alex Lange pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the ninth inning at PNC Park. Detroit won 6-3 on Aug. 2, 2023, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
The data from last season explains the importance of the first pitch. After 0-1 counts, opponents hit .119 with nine walks and 54 strikeouts against Lange. After 1-0 counts, opponents hit .256 with 36 walks and 25 strikeouts.
Getting a first-pitch strike is the difference between Lange being a shut down closer and completely unusable in high-leverage situations. He racked up 26 saves last season, but he has a lot to prove to stick as the closer after his bad final four months : a 5.18 ERA and a 17.6% walk rate across 41⅔ innings from June 4-Oct. 1.
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"Any pitch in any count is where I'm trying to get to," Lange said. "Any pitch, any count, any time, any spot, any location. I'll just go out there and execute."
Here's what doesn't work, according to the data: first-pitch sinkers and first-pitch four-seam fastballs.
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In 0-0 counts, Lange threw 171 curveballs, 110 sinkers/fastball and five changeups. He reached 0-1 counts 56.7% of the time with his curveball, not including balls in play, but just 35.5% of the time with his two fastballs.
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Lange would benefit from avoiding first-pitch fastballs, which means he needs to throw more first-pitch curveballs and first-pitch changeups to get ahead.
"It will be different for some hitters, but I think his ability to land three pitches is very critical for him," manager A.J. Hinch said, "and not simply be a first-pitch breaking ball guy or certainly default to first-pitch fastball guy. But he is a completely different pitcher when he gets leverage, so the faster he can do that, the more in control he is, the more chase he gets, the better success he has."
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Lange showed the potential effectiveness of a first-pitch curveball attack plan in Thursday's 5-4 loss against the Toronto Blue Jays . It was his third appearance in spring training.
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He threw back-to-back first-pitch curveballs for strikes to Isiah Kiner-Falefa (groundout) and Eduardo Escobar (strikeout). He switched to a four-seamer for his first pitch to Spencer Horwitz , but instead of a first-pitch strike, he fell behind 1-0 in the count, then 2-0. He battled back for a strikeout with four consecutive curveballs.
The curveball, not the fastball, put him in 0-1 counts.
"The three pitches, he used all of them, which is key," Hinch said after Thursday's loss . "With Alex, he can't fall into the trap of being too predictable or too much of the same. Early (in camp), he was establishing his fastball. Tonight, we saw a little bit more of a mix that we would see during the season. That's encouraging."
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In 2023, Lange threw 58.5% curveballs, 26.2% sinkers, 10.2% changeups and 5.1% fastballs. His curveball, the best pitch in his repertoire, generated a 48.4% whiff rate. His high-velocity sinker doesn't miss bats.
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Throwing more curveballs and changeups, regardless of the count, is the best way for Lange to attack if he locates those pitches inside the strike zone. Opponents had a .177 expected batting average against curveballs and a .101 expected batting average against changeups, compared to .308 against sinkers and .302 against fastballs.
"The reason guys with multiple pitches are effective is because it just puts more and more on the plate of the hitter to have to deal with," Hinch said. "He cut his changeup usage in half last year, sort of unintentionally, but it's been a point of emphasis so far."
If Lange doesn't throw more first-pitch strikes moving forward, he won't survive as the Tigers ' primary reliever in the ninth inning.
The Tigers have other options for the ninth inning in right-hander Jason Foley , right-hander Shelby Miller and left-hander Andrew Chafin . Right-hander Beau Brieske is a dark horse for ninth-inning opportunities , as well.
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"My job is to get three outs whenever they call me," Lange said.
Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold .
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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers' Alex Lange should follow the data to remain the closer
