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From 0.2% to 99.8% playoff odds, the Detroit Tigers are riding high. Just don't tell them
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- From 0.2% to 99.8% playoff odds, the Detroit Tigers are riding high. Just don't tell them
Exactly 332 days ago, the Detroit Tigers were calculated to have a 0.2% chance to make MLB's 2024 postseason.
That story, at this point, has been written . A.J. Hinch's club ripped off an improbable 31-13 finish over the final 44 games; coupled with a Minnesota Twins collapse, it allowed the Tigers to defy the 1-in-500 odds to not only reach the postseason, but win an American League wild-card series.
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Fast-forward less than 11 months and the Tigers have fully reversed those odds. Entering Wednesday, July 9, the Tigers, leading the AL Central by 14 games with the best record in baseball (by three games), have a 99.8% chance — aka 499-in-500 odds — to make the postseason, according to FanGraphs .
Detroit Tigers manager A.J. Hinch (14) walks off the field after a pitching change against San Francisco Giants during the fifth inning at Comerica Park in Detroit on Wednesday, May 28, 2025.
What does that mean?
"Nothing," Hinch said Wednesday before the Tigers' series finale against the Tampa Bay Rays . "I mean, I'm sorry, but we have to play the games. I felt that way last year and I feel that way this year. I mean, I love the way we're playing and I would rather be on this side, I do know that , but it doesn't do anything.
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"The moment we get distracted by stuff like that, the character of this team would change and I'm just not going to let it happen"
The Tigers are certainly helped by their division; the other four teams in the AL Central all entered Wednesday at least three games under .500; the Tigers, meanwhile, have an 18-9 record this season against division foes.
But moreover, the Tigers just continue to stack wins. Spencer Torkelson talked about that Wednesday, too: How the first baseman remembers the first spring training team meeting in Lakeland, Florida, when Hinch gathered the organization's hopefuls and expressed the importance of stacking not just victories, but series wins.
The Tigers entered Wednesday's game with a series win in hand over the Rays, their 21st of 30 this year , the first time that has been done in the organization's 125-season history.
Detroit Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson (20) celebrates after he hits a home run in the fourth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Comerica Park in Detroit on Tuesday, July 8, 2025.
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"Wow, that's really impressive," Torkelson said. "I think it goes to show the commitment to the process, showing up every single day to win that day. I mean when it was happening in August last year we weren't thinking, 'Let's make the playoffs,' we were just trying to show up every day and win the day.
"That's carried over through spring. And it shows if you preach the little things, take the extra 90 feet and do those things that you don't think is a lot, but you know, it adds up to a 99.8% chance in July. Just gives us more confidence in that process."
Holton down the fort
Tyler Holton of the Detroit Tigers pitches against the Washington Nationals during the first inning of Game 1 of a split doubleheader at Nationals Park in Washington on July 2, 2025.
A key cog in the run a season ago was Tyler Holton. Whether he was serving as an opener, a closer, or simply throwing high-leverage innings mid-game, seemingly any time Hinch called on the lefty, he delivered.
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Over the previous two seasons (2023-24), Holton posted 6.1 fWAR, with a 2.15 ERA, 0.824 WHIP, nine saves and 29 holds across 179⅔ innings.
But 2025 didn't start as well, with a 4.72 ERA over his first 34⅓ innings.
Still, there was no panic internally.
"I think he's a guy that just always attacks the zone," catcher Jake Rogers said Wednesday. "Think he had some unfortunate luck there, that's his shtick is be in the zone. ... Unfortunately they were getting him there for a couple weeks but now he's back to doing what Tyler Holton does, which is continue to impress."
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Over Holton's past seven outings — including an inning on Tuesday, July 8 — he has 9⅔ scoreless innings, dropping his ERA more than a full run to 3.68. He has struck out seven in that span, scattered four hits and, true to form, not walked a single batter.
For his part, Holton said he was never concerned about the 4.82 ERA in May or a career-worst 5.68 mark across 11 outings in June (which included eight earned runs over 9⅔ innings, prior to his scoreless streak).
Detroit Tigers manager A.J. Hinch take the ball to relieve pitcher Tyler Holton (87) in the second inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Game 2 at Comerica Park in Detroit on Thursday, June 19, 2025.
"It's a long season, just stay the course and things will fall in," Holton said. "But I'm playing more than just my own numbers. We got a lot more on the table this year, which is exciting, so just trying to help the team win any way we can."
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Holton said throwing strikes just to throw strikes doesn't always work. His cutter was leaking over the plate too frequently and in his quest to not walk batters, he was allowing too much to be barreled.
Now, he's finding the balance between attacking the zone and picking his spots, which has led back to the weak contact he was known for, and the best stretch of his 2025 campaign.
"We're just getting back to pitching using the edges of the plate," he said. "Trying to get chase whenever you can, just get weaker contact, that's the art of pitching. Used to do it really well and feel like I'm getting back to where I'm used to being."
Tarik Skubal , Casey Mize flipped for weekend starts
Starting pitcher Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers celebrates after the last out of the seventh inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field in Cleveland on Sunday, July 6, 2025.
Good news for Tigers fans with tickets to the series opener against the Seattle Mariners on Friday, July 11: Tarik Skubal will be on the mound.
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Right-hander Casey Mize was penciled in to start Friday, but the Tigers opted to flip Mize and Skubal for several reasons, Hinch said.
"Manageable pitch count for Tarik and potential for him to start the All-Star game," Hinch said. "Over the course of the next 10 days, what's best for Tarik, what's best for us is to keep him on regular rest. Casey, coming off his highest pitch total of the year, extra rest is always good so he gets the extra day.
"He was only going to pitch once anyway, so kind of factor all that in."
Hinch added that he did not have any specific insight as to whether Skubal would be picked to start the 2025 MLB All-Star Game — scheduled for 8 p.m. Tuesday, July 15, at Atlanta 's Truist Park. But he noted that Skubal threw 93 pitches in his most recent start, against the Cleveland Guardians on Sunday, July 6, while Mize threw 102 on Saturday, July 5 — the second-most in a start by the 2018 No. 1 overall pick in his career.
Email Tony Garcia at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia .
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers playoff odds a virtual lock, at 99.8%
