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10 Group of Five teams that could crash College Football Playoff race in 2025
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- 10 Group of Five teams that could crash College Football Playoff race in 2025
The race for a non-Power conference program to reach the College Football Playoff in 2025 couldn't be more wide open at midseason.
Numerous teams are vying for what's expected to be the final spot of the 12-team playoff this season. There are a handful of teams from the American battling for a spot, with a few others in other conferences in contention.
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Boise State rolled its way to the CFP in 2024 out of the Mountain West Conference, thanks to Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty , who ran for 2,601 yards with 29 touchdowns last season. The Broncos were ranked No. 3 in the bracket.
It's worth mentioning the CFP moved to a straight-seeding format in 2025, with the four highest-ranked conference teams not receiving first-round byes. Teams with conference championship wins receive automatic bids, but are then seeded 1-12 by the CFP committee.
The five highest-ranked conference champions make the College Football Playoff, leaving the door open for one of these Group of Five teams.
No. 25 Memphis (6-0, 2-0 American)
Memphis seems like a clear front runner for the Group of Five's CFP berth at midseason, as the Tigers are 6-0 and are the lone non-Power conference program inside the top 25 of the US LBM Coaches Poll .
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The Tigers have won each of their games by double digits except for their matchup with Arkansas, a Power Four opponent they defeated 32-31 after securing an 18-point comeback .
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Big test:vs. South Florida (Oct. 25)
South Florida (4-1, 1-0 American)
South Florida, another American program, also has an impressive Power Four win this season, beating Florida 18-16 on the road in Week 2, a week after dominating Boise State 34-7.
The Bulls might have the best quarterback of any team on this list, as veteran Byrum Brown has 1,194 yards with 10 touchdowns to four interceptions this season, along with 282 rushing yards and three more scores.
USF travels to face North Texas on Oct. 10 in a game with massive CFP implications.
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Big test:at North Texas (Oct. 10)
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Tulane (4-1, 1-0 American)
Tulane very well could be the best team on the list, and it's right in the thick of the American championship race.
The Green Wave 's lone loss this season came on the road at Ole Miss, who defeated them 45-10 in Week 4. The loss shouldn't be too big of a blemish on the team's resume, considering the Rebels are ranked No. 4 in the Coaches Poll. Tulane also has two wins against Power Four opponents already, beating Northwestern 23-3 and Duke 34-27.
Tulane's schedule lines up nicely until a big matchup with Memphis, which could be a first look at the conference championship game.
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Big test:at Memphis (Nov. 7)
North Texas (5-0, 1-0 American)
North Texas coach Eric Morris and quarterback Drew Mestemaker, a former walk-on who never started a game in high school, have been one of the American's best teams so far in 2025.
The Mean Green have one of the best offenses in the conference, as Mestemaker has passed for 1,247 yards with 11 touchdowns to no interceptions as a redshirt freshman. Their schedule plays out nicely, and a win over USF might move them into top contender status for the conference title — and, subsequently, the CFP.
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Big test:vs. South Florid (Oct. 10)
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Navy (5-0, 3-0 American)
The fifth American program on this list, Navy has less of a chance than the other programs from the conference but is undefeated with a 3-0 conference record so far, nonetheless.
The Midshipmen returned quarterback Blake Horvath, who's a difference maker at the position. He has 839 passing yards with six touchdowns to three interceptions, along with 485 rushing yards and six more scores. He also led Navy to an upset win over a depleted Oklahoma in the Armed Forces Bowl last season.
The rest of the schedule gets quite difficult for Navy, as the season ends against North Texas, No. 16 Notre Dame, South Florida, Np. 25 Memphis and Army, its archrival. If Navy goes 10-2 on the season with some of those wins, it could be a real factor.
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Big test:at North Texas (Nov. 1)
UNLV (5-0, 1-0 Mountain West)
How about Dan Mullen in his first season in Las Vegas? Mullen has UNLV 5-0 to start the season after taking a break from coaching after being fired from Florida.
The Rebels haven't faced the toughest schedule so far, but have grinded out one-possessions wins over Idaho State, UCLA and Miami (Ohio). The schedule also plays out nicely for UNLV, with its toughest game likely coming against either Boise State or New Mexico.
That means the Rebels may have to run the table to earn a spot in the CFP.
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Big test:at Boise State (Oct. 18)
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Old Dominion (4-1, 1-0 Sun Belt)
Old Dominion put up a fight against a top-10 ranked Indiana team in its season opener, falling 27-14 on the road. The Monarchs are 4-0 since and are competing for a Sun Belt title alongside another CFP contender in James Madison.
Old Dominion also defeated Virginia Tech 45-26 in Week 3, which led to the firing of Hokies coach Brent Key. ODU doesn't have the strength of schedule of others on this list, and likely needs to win out to have a shot.
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Big test:at James Madison (Oct. 18)
James Madison (4-1, 2-0 Sun Belt)
James Madison has one loss this season, although it came in competitive fashion against Louisville in Week 2. The Dukes have had lots of success in recent years, especially when led by now-Indiana coach Curt Cignetti, and now look to make their first CFP berth.
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JMU has a much easier schedule than that of American teams, meaning it'll have to likely run the table to have a shot at the 12-team bracket. Still, it's plenty capable.
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Big test:vs. Old Dominion (Oct. 18)
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Fresno State (5-1, 2-0 Mountain West)
Fresno State opened its season with a 31-7 loss to Kansas on the road, but has since rattled off five consecutive wins and stands atop the Mountain West standings so far.
The Bulldogs avoid UNLV on their regular-season schedule, but will face San Diego State and Boise State, a pair of CFP contenders in their conference. Fresno State is also led by a familiar quarterback, as Kurt Warner's son, E.J. Warner , leads the offense.
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Big test:vs. San Diego State (Oct. 25)
San Diego State (4-1, 1-0 Mountain West)
Rounding out the list is San Diego State, who looks primed to compete for a Mountain West title with UNLV, Boise State and Fresno State.
The Aztecs' lone loss so far came to Washington State in 36-13 fashion, which doesn't look great on the resume considering the Cougars are 3-2 this season with huge losses to North Texas, another team on this list, and Washington. San Diego State's best win so far was a 34-0 win over Cal, as it shut out promising young quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele .
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Big test:at Fresno State (Oct. 25)
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Playoff projections: Group of Five teams that challenge for CFP
