5 Teams With Best Chance to Make College Football Playoff for First Time in 2025

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5 Teams With Best Chance to Make College Football Playoff for First Time in 2025

Steven Lassan · Athlon Sports

Tue, May 20, 2025 ·

9 min read

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Since the inception of the College Football Playoff in 2014, just 21 different programs have earned a trip to the expanded championship field. But with the shift to the 12-team setup in '24 and potentially more expansion to a larger postseason in '26 and beyond, the number of different programs making the College Football Playoff should grow in the coming seasons.

In last year's 12-team setup, six teams - Tennessee, Boise State, Indiana, SMU, Penn State, and Arizona State - made their first appearance in the playoff. College football doesn't have a shortage of candidates looking for their debut trip to the playoff in '25. Florida, Miami, and South Carolina are three teams to watch, with Baylor, BYU, and Nebraska headlining a list of teams in the sleeper category.

Which teams have the best chance to make the CFB Playoff for the first time in '25? Here are five candidates and a few to watch:

5 Teams With Best Chance to Make College Football Playoff for First Time in 2025

Miami

The Hurricanes just missed the 12-team field last season after a loss to Syracuse on Nov. 30 prevented an appearance in the ACC Championship Game and dropped the team to a No. 13 ranking in the final College Football Playoff Top 25.

Coach Mario Cristobal took steps to move this program forward in the offseason. In addition to reeling in the ACC's No. 1 recruiting class for the third year in a row, the Hurricanes inked one of the nation's top transfer portal hauls for '25.

Included in the transfer class is Georgia quarterback Carson Beck , who should be a top-notch replacement for No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward . Beck is on track to return to full strength following an elbow injury suffered in the SEC Championship. However, the senior won't have to do it alone. The 'Canes return one of the ACC's top backfields and rank among the best in the nation up front. After struggling on defense last year, Cristobal hit the reset button for this unit by hiring Minnesota coordinator Corey Hetherman. Also, a struggling secondary will receive help from a handful of additions from the portal. The defense should also benefit from a healthy year from standout end Rueben Bain.

A schedule that includes non-conference showdowns against Notre Dame and Florida, a home date against Louisville, along with ACC games at SMU, Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Pitt isn't easy. Under Cristobal, Miami has improved its win total in back-to-back years after a 5-7 debut, going 7-6 in '23 and 10-3 last season. With improvement on defense, along with a healthy Beck under center, the Hurricanes can go from one of the last teams out in '24 to solidly in the field in '25.

Florida

After early losses to Miami and Texas A&M, it seemed inevitable Florida would move on from coach Billy Napier during the '24 season. Instead, Napier received a vote of confidence in early November, and the Gators went on a four-game winning streak to finish 8-5 - the program's highest victory total since '19.

The play of rising star quarterback DJ Lagway was a key reason behind Florida's late-season improvement. As a true freshman last year, Lagway threw for 1,915 yards and 12 touchdowns and gave the offense a needed spark in its ability to attack downfield. The Texas native was limited in the spring and his health (and return to 100 percent) looms large for Florida's hopes of a playoff trip. Assuming Lagway is back to full strength, all of the pieces are in place for a breakout year for this offense. Jadan Baugh (673 rushing yards last season) is one of the SEC's top running backs, and four starters are back up front to anchor a strong offensive line. Receiver Eugene Wilson III (61 catches in '23) is back after missing most of '24 due to injury.

In addition to Lagway, Florida's defense showed massive improvement late in the year. After navigating early ups and downs, the Gators held their final four opponents to 13 points a contest. End Tyreak Sapp (13 TFL) returns after a breakout season, with Pup Howard and sophomore Myles Graham back to anchor the second level. Coordinator Ron Roberts has to retool in the secondary, but the pieces are there for Florida to pick up where it left off on defense.

Even if Lagway is healthy for the full season and the defense continues to play at a high level, making the 12-team playoff field won't be easy thanks to a brutal schedule. Florida plays at LSU, Miami, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss. The annual showdown against Georgia in Jacksonville is also on tap, along with Texas and Tennessee visiting the Swamp. Napier's team could play seven preseason top 25 teams.

South Carolina

The Gamecocks were one of the hottest teams in college football at the end of the regular season. A six-game winning streak that included thrilling victories over Missouri and Clemson brought coach Shane Beamer's team into the playoff conversation after a 3-3 start.

The development of quarterback LaNorris Sellers was the driving force behind the team's late-season surge. In five November games, Sellers threw for 1,306 yards and 12 touchdowns to three picks and added 408 yards and four scores on the ground. And if the sophomore takes another step forward in '25, his play can help the Gamecocks overcome a tough schedule and a depth chart featuring a couple of key question marks. The line lost three interior starters, and Beamer's offense still needs more consistency from its receivers. Additionally, top running back Rocket Sanders departed to the NFL and transfer addition Rahsul Faison is awaiting a NCAA appeal for eligibility in '25.

A defense that limited teams to 18.1 points a game last year lost standout end Kyle Kennard , along with a couple of key contributors at tackle and linebacker. Safety Nick Emmanwori also departed to the NFL. The cupboard isn't empty for coordinator Clayton White but restocking the defensive front in the rugged SEC is no easy task.

With key personnel questions to address entering '25, it's a good thing South Carolina's schedule is backloaded. A road trip to Missouri on Sept. 20 is tough, but Beamer's team should be favored in its first five games. However, the remaining slate - Oklahoma, Alabama, at Ole Miss, at Texas A&M, and Clemson - features several toss-ups against likely top-25 teams.

Illinois

With 16 returning starters, the Fighting Illini should be one of the most-experienced squads in college football for 2025. And after a 10-3 season where the program exceeded expectations, coach Bret Bielema's team is getting plenty of preseason buzz as a sleeper contender in the Big Ten.

Quarterback Luke Altmyer's development was a big reason why Illinois posted its first season of double-digit wins since 2001. After battling injuries in '23, Altmyer threw for 2,717 yards and 22 touchdowns to lead an offense that averaged 27.7 points in Big Ten play last fall. The senior won't have standout receiver Pat Bryant (984 receiving yards in '24) this year, but the combination of a couple of transfer pickups (Hudson Clement and Justin Bowick) and returning personnel should help Altmyer elevate his play again. With all five starters back, Illinois will have one of the Big Ten's top offensive lines.

An improved defense was also a big reason why Illinois doubled its win total from five in '23 to 10 last year. After giving up 29.4 points a game in '23, the Fighting Illini cut that total to 21.7 last season. This unit needs to retool a bit along the defensive line, and Bielema dipped into the portal for help with James Thompson and Curt Neal arriving from Wisconsin to fortify this unit. Linebacker Gabe Jacas and safety Xavier Scott are two of the nation's best at their respective positions.

Illinois hosts USC and Ohio State but faces road trips to Washington and Indiana this fall. Even if Bielema's team falls short against the Buckeyes, getting to 10 (or even 11) victories with a favorable schedule is within reach.

Kansas State

Even though Arizona State returns arguably the best collection of talent for '25, a return to the top of the conference isn't guaranteed with the Big 12's top teams clustered closely together. Kansas State is one of a handful of teams - BYU, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, Utah, and Texas Tech - capable of pushing for a spot in the conference title game.

Quarterback Avery Johnson is just scratching the surface of his potential after a standout '24 debut. Johnson accounted for 255.2 total yards a contest and posted 32 combined touchdowns in 13 starts. With another offseason to develop, Johnson should emerge as one of the top quarterbacks in college football. He's joined by dynamic junior Dylan Edwards (7.4 yards a carry in '24) and No. 1 receiver Jayce Brown as key cogs on an offense that averaged 6.6 yards a play last fall.

A defense that held Big 12 opponents to 5.2 yards a play last season returns five starters, including standout linebacker Austin Romaine and safety VJ Payne. The front should be among the best in the conference, but Klieman will have to retool the secondary.

The path to the playoff is tricky with road dates at Utah, Kansas, and Baylor. However, a showdown against Iowa State takes place in Ireland, and Texas Tech comes to Manhattan.

Other Teams to Watch

Baylor
The Bears finished the '24 regular season on a six-game winning streak. With quarterback Sawyer Robertson returning, contending for the Big 12 title is within reach.

BYUCoach Kalani Sitake has to restock the trenches, but quarterback Jake Retzlaff is back to navigate a favorable schedule.

Georgia Tech/LouisvilleCould Georgia Tech or Louisville be this year's SMU in the ACC and make a surprise run to the playoff?

Iowa
South Dakota State transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski should give Iowa's passing game a huge boost this fall.

Iowa StateQuarterback Rocco Becht returns after leading the Cyclones to an appearance in the Big 12 title game last season.

NebraskaQuarterback Dylan Raiola should thrive with a full offseason to develop under coordinator Dana Holgorsen.

Ole Miss
Coach Lane Kiffin's team is breaking in several new faces on both sides of the ball. But a quick reload is likely behind rising star quarterback Austin Simmons .

Texas A&MAre the Aggies poised for a big step forward in coach Mike Elko's second year? The offensive line and backfield should be among the best in the nation. How far will quarterback Marcel Reed progress?

Texas TechThe Red Raiders landed one of the nation's top transfer portal hauls in an effort to go all-in on the '25 season.

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