There's no use trying to predict the American Conference title race anymore.
With four weeks left in the regular season, there are six teams that have one conference loss. Fans are already checking complex tiebreaker scenarios, dissecting future schedules and arguing about advanced metrics.
For most of those teams, though, the to-do list is simple: Win.
The top two teams in last week's power rankings didn't do that. Tulane got blown out by UTSA, and Navy is no longer undefeated, having lost to North Texas.
So we've got plenty of movement in the top five, and for the third time in three weeks, we've got a new No. 1.
1. Memphis (8-1)
Last week (3):Beat Rice, 38-14
What happened:It was a routine win for the Tigers, who have now won two in a row after the stunning loss to UAB. It's all in front of them, too — their last three games are against fellow contenders Tulane, ECU and Navy.
Next up:Tulane
2. USF (6-2)
Last week (4):Idle
What happened:The Bulls moved up two spots without even playing. That's pretty ideal, especially considering their last game was the loss to Memphis on Oct. 25. It's worth noting that most advanced metrics (strength of record, etc.) view USF as the best team in the conference.
Next up:UTSA
3. North Texas (8-1)
Last week (5):Beat Navy, 31-17
What happened:The Mean Green ended Navy's undefeated run with an incredibly impressive performance that included 197 rushing yards on 33 (33!) carries by Caleb Hawkins. This defense continues to show how much it has improved under coach Skyler Cassity. And the path to 11-1 looks very doable.
Next up:Idle
4. Tulane (6-2)
Last week (1):Lost to UTSA, 48-26
What happened:The Alamodome happened. Tulane looked completely out of sorts from the get-go, and the sloppy play we've seen the past month finally caught up to the Green Wave . Now they're faced with a must-win game.
Next up:at Memphis
5. Navy (7-1)
Last week (2):Lost to North Texas, 31-17
What happened:Navy lost the turnover battle 3-0 against North Texas. That's not a recipe for success against anyone, and the schedule doesn't get any easier moving forward. The Midshipmen still have a path to the conference title game, but they've got to clean things up.
Next up:at Notre Dame
6. East Carolina (5-3)
Last week (6):Beat Temple, 45-14
What happened:The Pirates had no problems dominating a Temple team that has been good this season, and now we've got to add them into the title contention mix. The road is clear, too — take care of business against Charlotte and then set up what could be a massive home game against Memphis in a couple of weeks.
Next up:Charlotte
7. UTSA (4-4)
Last week (9):Beat Tulane, 48-26
What happened:We may have slightly discounted the effect the Alamodome has on this team. UTSA is 24-0 in conference home games under Jeff Traylor, a stretch that goes back to 2020. There's something supernatural going on in that building.
Next up:at USF
8. Temple (5-4)
Last week (7):Lost to ECU, 45-14
What happened:Temple was outgained 614 to 233 in total yardage. It just wasn't the Owls' day.
Next up:at Army
9. Army (4-4)
Last week (8):Beat Air Force, 20-17
What happened:The Black Knights are still alive for bowl eligibility, but it's an uphill battle with their schedule. They needed to beat Air Force, though, and they did.
Next up:Temple
10. FAU (3-5)
Last week (10):Idle
Next up:Tulsa
11. UAB (3-5)
Last week (11):Lost to UConn, 38-19
What happened:The final score doesn't tell the full story of this game. UConn was up 31-0 before UAB scored some fourth-quarter points to make it respectable, but Alex Mortensen's second game in charge did not go nearly as well as his first. Next week's game will be interesting.
Next up:at Rice
12. Rice (4-5)
Last week (12):Lost to Memphis, 38-14
What happened:Things went badly from the get-go for the Owls, who fell behind early and had little chance of getting back in the game. Live by the triple option, die by the triple option.
Next up:UAB
13. Tulsa (2-6)
Last week (13):Idle
Next up:at FAU
14. Charlotte (1-7)
Last week (14):Idle
Next up:at East Carolina
Reach sports writer Jonah Dylan at jonah.dylan@commercialappeal.com or on X @thejonahdylan.
This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: American Conference power rankings as Memphis football regains top spot

