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Assessing the Guardians' playoff chances: The 4 key things Cleveland needs to go right
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- Assessing the Guardians' playoff chances: The 4 key things Cleveland needs to go right
CLEVELAND — The Guardians ' chances to reach the postseason remain statistically slim, but even after a less-than-aggressive stance at the trade deadline and the loss of two pitchers because of a gambling investigation , Cleveland has remained one of the peskiest teams in the American League playoff race.
They made two status-quo-like trades at the deadline , dealing veterans Shane Bieber and Paul Sewald . Both were still rehabbing, both needed a few weeks before they'd be able to return to the mound and both were on short-term deals. Considering the Guardians couldn't afford to wait and had an opportunity to replenish some long-term talent, it made some sense, though it certainly didn't put them in the "buyers" category as they hovered around .500.
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The loss of Luis Ortiz and then All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase because of a Major League Baseball gambling investigation was particularly damning to their playoff chances. Both are on paid leave absence "until further notice," according to an Aug. 31 update by league and the MLBPA.
The Guardians responded to all of this by going on a 9-3 run to open August, though a recent offensive slump brought them back down to Earth.
The United States Air Force Thunderbirds fly over Progressive Field during a game between the Guardians and the Seattle Mariners on Aug. 31, 2025, in Cleveland.
Guardians standings, schedule in AL playoff race
The Guardians (68-67) entered the month of September four games behind the Mariners for the final wild card spot in the American League. They'll also need to overtake the Kansas City Royals and Texas Rangers , each at 70-67 and three games behind the Mariners.
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If the season were to end Sept. 1, the New York Yankees (76-61), Boston Red Sox (76-62) and the Mariners (73-64) would be the AL's three wild card teams.
Among the group of teams vying for wild cards, the Guardians have by far the worst run differential at minus-55 . The Royals are at minus-3, but every other team is at plus-25 runs or better.
The Guardians have a middling strength of schedule the rest of the way, with a combined opponents' winning percentage of .503, which ranks as the 16th-toughest slate in baseball . The Mariners, though, have the 25th-toughest remaining schedule (.476). The Rangers are fifth at .519, and the Royals are nearly identical with Cleveland (.506).
With all of those factors combined, the Guardians have only a 5.1 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs' projections for the rest of the season.
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In other words, a lot has to go right for the Guardians. Here are the key factors.
Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee delivers a pitch against the Seattle Mariners on Aug. 31, 2025, in Cleveland.
Tanner Bibee returns to his top form
Particularly with Bieber traded and Ortiz on paid leave, the Guardians' depth in the starting rotation is being tested. But in addition to that depth, Cleveland needs Tanner Bibee , at the head of the group, to return to his best form.
In his rookie season of 2023 and last year, he had a combined 3.25 ERA. That has ballooned to 4.73 this year and, over his last five outings spanning back to July 26, Bibee had posted an unsightly 6.40 ERA . Considering the Guardians need him to lead the rotation, it's a troubling trend for the remaining outings Bibee can throw this season, especially with his emotions boiling over last week.
Cleveland Guardians catcher Austin Hedges (27) and relief pitcher Cade Smith celebrate a win over the Miami Marlins on Aug. 14, 2025, in Cleveland.
Bullpen avoids running out of gas without Emmanuel Clase
The negative impact of losing Clase in such a manner cannot be understated and has only put more pressure on the back end of the Guardians bullpen, especially Cade Smith , who was pushed into the closer's role.
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Smith has been mostly solid, albeit with a few blow-up appearances, and has a 2.81 ERA since Clase was sidelined because of the investigation.
The Guardians earned the AL Central title on the back of its stellar (even historic) bullpen a year ago. If they are to sneak back into the playoffs, they'll have to ask quite a bit from Smith, Tim Herrin , Hunter Gaddis and the rest of their relievers.
Cleveland Guardians' Steven Kwan hits a game-winning sacrifice fly against the Seattle Mariners on Aug. 29, 2025, in Cleveland.
Steven Kwan finds his All-Star swing
The Guardians have featured one of the league's most extreme top-heavy lineups. Jose Ramirez has a solid chance to finish in the top six of AL MVP voting for the seventh time this season. He's headed toward at least a 30-30-40 season.
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Steven Kwan is likely headed for his fourth consecutive Gold Glove in left field, but at the plate he hasn't had his All-Star-level production at the top of the order for the last few weeks, batting just .212 with a .248 on-base percentage over the last four weeks.
The Guardians chose to keep Kwan in Cleveland. If they are to play in October, Kwan's return to being one of the most difficult outs in baseball might be Step 1.
Bottom of the Guardians lineup steps up, including Bo Naylor and Gabriel Arias
The biggest step toward any chance of the playoffs, though, probably rests with the bottom of the lineup.
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The Guardians have featured several games in which either Bo Naylor or Gabriel Arias have been in the No. 5 spot in the order, and neither has done enough to warrant a spot that high in a playoff-caliber lineup.
Manager Stephen Vogt wants a lineup that doesn't allow pitchers to take a deep breath after going through Kwan, Ramirez and, lately, Kyle Manzardo in a four-batter span. But because of a lack of productive options, pitchers can basically sleepwalk through the bottom half of the order.
Out of the group of Naylor, Arias, David Fry , C.J. Kayfus, Brayan Rocchio and Nolan Jones , the Guardians need at least two or three to have a hot September. Otherwise, the lack of length in the Guardians lineup might be their ultimate undoing for the 2025 season.
This article originally appeared on Akron Beacon Journal: A look at the Cleveland Guardians' playoff chances entering September
