After only six Power Four college football programs changed coaches last year, the assumption was for significant transition after the 2025 season, as coaches are unable to bounce back from a losing season and/or their buyout is cheaper.
But during the 2025 season?
Here we are in mid-October and six SEC/Big Ten/ACC/Big 12 spots are open plus three Group of Five jobs. And more are expected to open, including Florida .
Let's stop the carousel for a few minutes to figure out what's going on:
1.The open P4 jobs are (in alphabetical order) Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Stanford, UCLA and Virginia Tech plus G5's Oregon State, UAB and Kent State. Penn State canning James Franklin in the midst of a three-game losing streak was surprising, but you can't lose at winless UCLA and home to Northwestern in consecutive weeks and expect your office key card to work.
2. Locally, 2-4 Florida is a 9 1/2-point favorite Saturday at home against Mississippi State. Is athletic director Scott Stricklin one loss away from giving coach Billy Napier the heave-ho, but allowing him to finish out the season? That should be the situation; whether he is allowed to coach the remaining games or not is irrelevant. If the Gators win Saturday, Napier at least makes it to Jacksonville on Nov. 1 for the game against Georgia with a chance to improbably save his job.
3.The Gators' search should start with Ole Miss' Lane Kiffin. Period. More on Kiffin in a bit.
About FSU's Mike Norvell
4.A few weeks ago, Florida State was 3-0 and still reveling in its Week 1 upset win over Alabama . The Seminoles were back … until they weren't. Consecutive losses to Virginia (double overtime) and at home to Miami (handled by the Hurricanes for three quarters) and Pittsburgh (true freshman quarterback) doused all of the good early-season feelings. Coach Mike Norvell has lost nine consecutive ACC games and is 20-23 in conference play.
5.Those FSU fans who want Norvell turfed probably aren't able to contribute to his whopping $58.7 million buyout (another masterstroke contract by agent Jimmy Sexton). You can always find the money, but that's a ton of money, which would hamstring FSU's efforts to find a new coach. Plus, the Seminoles would have to pay Norvell's staff.
6.Norvell has painted himself into a figurative corner with his team-building approach. He hit a home run with the transfer portal in 2023 (13-1), but went 2-10 in trying to recreate the magic last year and is 3-3 this year. And now it's too late for him to pivot and emphasize recruiting high school players to develop them and augment them with selected transfer players. This has become a Band-Aid program.
7.Florida State plays at Stanford in the After Hours Special on Saturday (10:30 p.m.). A loss to the Cardinal would change this discussion. If I'm a Seminoles fan (and my brother is an alum), I wouldn't like the direction of the program and want Norvell out, but the buyout ultimately prevents a move even if athletic director Michael Alford wants to.
Where UF search should start
8.Napier is 21-23 at Florida, including 11-16 in the SEC. His year-by-year records are 6-7, 5-7, 8-5 and the aforementioned 2-4. Thing is, the Gators have talent all over the field. Last week's loss at Texas A&M was emblematic of the season: Hang in there for a bit against the fifth-ranked Aggies, but ultimately lose (34-17). Napier should have followed Norvell's route during the offseason and hired an offensive coordinator to specifically call the plays.
9.The inevitable Florida search by Stricklin should cast a wide net … unless it's Kiffin. Fans shouldn't want to see a press conference two days after the season … unless it's Kiffin. I agree with an out-of-state UF alum who I talk to often: The Gators' program needs an edge. Needs some fire. Needs some charisma. Kiffin would check that box. It's a lay-up. But the alum also likes Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham. The Gators need to get their offense interesting and productive.
10.There isn't a current job opening that would get in Florida's way unless Stricklin wants to pursue Indiana's Curt Cignetti. Penn State's speculative hot board is Cignetti, Nebraska's Matt Rhule, Duke's Manny Diaz, Syracuse's Fran Brown and Vanderbilt's Clark Lea. Nobody who should be under consideration at Virginia Tech, UCLA, Stanford, Arkansas and Oklahoma State should be on Florida's list. Nobody should consider Brown after his outburst earlier this week when asked about the Penn State job. Did he not expect to be asked about it? Unprofessional, petty and immature behavior from the same guy who had his players run wind sprints after a win in front of the fans.
More jobs set to open?
11.Besides Florida, what other Power 4 jobs could open? Wisconsin (coach Luke Fickell was last seen losing 37-0 to Iowa at home) and Auburn (coach Hugh Freeze has two losing seasons and a current three-game losing streak). Would Kiffin be interested in Auburn after it wanted to hire him a few years ago? I don't see it.
12.Will there be a shocking move like Lincoln Riley from Oklahoma to USC or Brian Kelly from Notre Dame to LSU? If Kiffin isn't on UF's radar (or vice versa), would Stricklin make a call to Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman? Penn State might.
13.Norvell's buyout total along with Penn State's Franklin (reported $49 million) should tell athletic directors to reverse a trend start negotiating shorter-team contracts to allow for more flexibility.
14.Among the jobs currently open, Oklahoma State should hire South Florida's Alex Golesh and Virginia Tech should hire former Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher. Does Arkansas giving former coach/current interim coach Bobby Petrino another shot the pass of least resistance? Yes. Stanford has general manager Andrew Luck in its favor in soliciting candidates, but that program needs many years of work. If Wisconsin opens, former Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald makes 100% sense. Buckle up, folks, this is going to be a crazy next few months in this sport and that doesn't include the games.
O'Halloran can be reached at rohalloran@gannett.com
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Billy Napier, Mike Norvell hot seats? More college football chaos

