CFP bracket projections after Week 12: USA TODAY Sports' expert predictions

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CFP bracket projections after Week 12: USA TODAY Sports' expert predictions

CFP bracket projections after Week 12: USA TODAY Sports' expert predictions

Zac Al-Khateeb, USA TODAY NETWORK · USA TODAY Sports

Sun, Nov 16, 2025 ·

2 min read

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College football fans got a brief glimpse of looming chaos in Week 12.

Several top-25 teams went down over the course of the weekend's game, none bigger than No. 4 Alabama (No. 4 in the College Football Playoff rankings), which fell 23-21 to No. 10 Oklahoma (No. 11 in CFP) at home in Tuscaloosa.

While a loss doesn't preclude the Crimson Tide from making the playoff — or even the SEC championship game — it significantly narrows the margin of error moving forward for Kalen DeBoer and Co. The Sooners , meanwhile, bolstered their CFP chances and, with games remaining vs. Missouri and LSU , are set up to host a first-round game of the CFP.

'A disaster.' How Texas flopped at finish against Georgia, harpooning CFP hopes

Elsewhere in the SEC, No. 3 Texas A&M (No. 3 in CFP) overcame a 30-3 halftime deficit to avoid a disastrous home loss vs. South Carolina , outscoring the Gamecocks 28-0 in the second half to win 31-30. No. 5 Georgia (No. 5 in CFP) also made short work of Arch Manning and No. 10 Texas (No. 10 in CFP), downing the visiting Longhorns 35-10.

Elsewhere across college football, Clemson upended No. 21 Louisville (No. 20 in CFP) on Friday, 20-19, further muddying the waters of the ACC football standings. And, in the American, Navy downed previous Group of Five favorite South Florida 41-38. With the Bulls' loss, will James Madison be the new non-Power Four team to make the CFP?

Only time will tell. Until then, here are CFB bracket predictions from USA TODAY Sports experts:

CFP bracket, rankings projections after Week 12

* Denotes one of five highest-ranked conference champions

Oklahoma's win at Alabama gives us the biggest change from last week, vaulting the Sooners into the 12-team field and knocking the Crimson Tide back several spots. Coach Brent Venables' team has a manageable remaining schedule, with home games against Missouri and LSU left to play. And with Georgia's win against Texas, we may mercifully be spared from having to debate whether a three-loss team that didn't win its conference championship should make the playoff — though you can bet Greg Sankey and some of the league's most shameless sycophants will try to argue for it.

* Denotes one of five highest-ranked conference champions

Texas' big loss on the road at Georgia and Oklahoma's win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa shake up my projected CFP bracket. Does Texas still have a shot at making it in if it finishes 9-3? The Longhorns are going to need some help, but it's possible.

Should the Aggies fall to Texas in the regular season finale, it would open the door for an SEC championship game bid for Georgia, which looked like the best team in the conference in Week 12. Five SEC teams reaching the CFP is surely going to go over well with the rest of college football, right?

REQUIRED READING: College football winners, losers of Week 12 include Texas A&M's comeback, Alabama's loss

* Denotes one of five highest-ranked conference champions

With its loss, Texas falls out of the CFP for the moment, though it can get back in with a win over Texas A&M. Alabama clings onto a playoff spot despite the loss to Oklahoma. Georgia is the biggest winner of the week, leaping ahead of Indiana. The chaos will only ensue with Week 13, but the SEC looks to be in great shape to send five teams the playoff.

* Denotes one of five highest-ranked conference champions

It just means more in the SEC, and that's why Greg Sankey's conference is well-positioned to have ownership of nearly half of the CFP seeds, despite Alabama dropping its home game to Oklahoma — a loss that has now created chaos in the SEC. The Crimson Tide's four consecutive top-25-ranked wins should still earn them a first-round home game. The other notable change is the Group of Five representative: The American no longer controls the conversation, as it now belongs to the Sun Belt and James Madison.