CFP has a Michigan problem, which could become an Oklahoma problem

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CFP has a Michigan problem, which could become an Oklahoma problem

CFP has a Michigan problem, which could become an Oklahoma problem

Matt Hayes, USA TODAY · USA TODAY Sports

Wed, Nov 5, 2025 ·

4 min read

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I don't want to be the guy who has to point this out, but the good, well-intended folks on the College Football Playoff selection committee have a Michigan problem.

Check that, an Ohio State and Michigan problem after the first week of the CFP rankings.

Because the Buckeyes haven't beaten Michigan since 2019, and frankly, Ohio State looks lost in the bitter rivalry. The Buckeyes, though, are only a secondary part of the problem — and only because of their part in the process.

The whopper of a problem is Michigan, currently ranked No. 21 with three games to play. Two of those games are against two of the lower-tier of the Big Ten (at Northwestern, at Maryland) and the last is against You Know Who.

Again, I hate to be the guy who has to say this, but what in blue blazes happens if Michigan wins out and reaches the Big Ten championship game — and then loses to Indiana?

We could have quite the dicey situation of 10-3 Michigan vs. 9-3 Oklahoma for a CFP spot. And Oklahoma beat Michigan by 11 in September.

I don't need to tell you a win over No. 1 Ohio State would trump all, including an 11-point win head-to-head. Why? Because, well, who the hell really knows?

But you better believe it will.

Texas Tech fans await the start of ESPN's College GameDay pregame show, Saturday, Nov. 8, 2025, at Jones AT&T Stadium.
(Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal)

Fans cheer with signs at ESPN "College GameDay" in front of Ayres Hall on the University of Tennessee at Knoxville campus Saturday, Sept. 13, 2025, before the No. 15 Tennessee Volunteers host the No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs.
(Caitie McMekin/News Sentinel)

Lexi von der Lieth and Peyton Patel turned out for College Gameday at Vanderbilt's Wyatt Lawn in Nashville, Tenn., Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025.
(Rachel Wegner / The Tennessean)

Derek Evetts is picking sides at College Gameday at Vanderbilt's Wyatt Lawn in Nashville, Tenn., Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025.
(Rachel Wegner / The Tennessean)

Fans cheer with signs during ESPN "College GameDay" at Wyatt Lawn on the campus of Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tenn., Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025 before Vanderbilt hosts Missouri.
(Camden Hall / For The Tennessean)

The Duck gets up to his antics during ESPN’s “College GameDay” on the campus of the University of Oregon on Oct. 11, 2025, in Eugene, Oregon.
(Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard)

Signs during ESPN’s “College GameDay” on the campus of the University of Oregon on Oct. 11, 2025, in Eugene, Oregon.
(Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard)

Fans wave signs during ESPN’s “College GameDay” on the campus of the University of Oregon on Oct. 11, 2025, in Eugene, Oregon.
(Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard)

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning sits for an interview during ESPN’s “College GameDay” on the campus of the University of Oregon on Oct. 11, 2025, in Eugene, Oregon.
(Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard)

Oct. 4, 2025; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; ESPN’s College GameDay on location on the Quad at the University of Alabama before the Alabama versus Vanderbilt game.
(Gary Cosby Jr., Gary Cosby Jr.-Tuscaloosa News)

Oct. 4, 2025; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama fans enjoy ESPN’s College GameDay on location on the Quad at the University of Alabama before the Alabama versus Vanderbilt game.
(Gary Cosby Jr., Gary Cosby Jr.-Tuscaloosa News)

Oct. 4, 2025; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama fans hold up signs during ESPN’s College GameDay on location on the Quad at the University of Alabama before the Alabama versus Vanderbilt game.
(Gary Cosby Jr., Gary Cosby Jr.-Tuscaloosa News)

Fans hold signs at ESPN’s “College GameDay” in front of Ayres Hall on University of Tennessee Knoxville’s campus, Saturday, September 13, 2025.
(Wynton Jackson/News Sentinel)

Fans cheer and hold signs at ESPN "College GameDay" in front of Ayres Hall on the University of Tennessee at Knoxville campus Saturday, Sept. 13, 2025, before the No. 15 Tennessee Volunteers host the No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs.
(Caitie McMekin/News Sentinel)

Former Sooner linebacker Curtis Lofton leaves the stage at ESPN's "College GameDay" ahead of the Oklahoma-Michigan game on Saturday, Sept. 6, 2025, in Norman, Oklahoma.
(Steve Sisney/The Oklahoman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

Fans arrive early for ESPN's "College GameDay" ahead of the Oklahoma-Michigan game on Saturday, Sept. 6, 2025, in Norman, Oklahoma.
(Steve Sisney/The Oklahoman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

Fans hold signs in support of Lee Corso on the set of ESPN College GameDay prior to the NCAA football game between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Texas Longhorns at Ohio Stadium on Aug. 30, 2025.
(Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch)

Fans hold signs on the set of ESPN College GameDay prior to the NCAA football game between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Texas Longhorns at Ohio Stadium on Aug. 30, 2025.
(Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch)

When you've got the head of the selection committee talking about how fortunate it is to have three former coaches — Chris Ault, Mark Dantonio, Mike Riley — within the 13-member committee, you can see where this is headed.

Mack Rhoades, athletic director at Baylor and the guy tasked with herding the cats, was talking about "lines of scrimmage" when explaining the difference between Ohio State and Indiana and Texas A&M. I literally laughed out loud.

Why do I have this vision of Dantonio, one of the toughest dudes in the coaching fraternity, pounding his fist about the lines of scrimmage while staring down all? But I digress.

It's only Week 1. How bad could it get?

The fortunate

No. 1 Ohio State

The defense sure looks elite, but has faced these quarterbacks: Arch Manning (in the first road start of his career), C'zavian Teasett, Parker Navarro, Desmond Williams, Drake Lindsey, Luke Altmyer, Hunter Simmons and Ethan Grunkemeyer.

Riveting. And you could make an argument November gets easier.

But, you know, lines of scrimmage.

One step behind: Dabo Swinney should've left Clemson two years ago for Alabama, avoided inevitable fall

The reveal: How 12-team bracket differs from CFP rankings

No. 7 BYU

The classic "they're unbeaten, so what else are we going to do" choice. The schedule: Portland State, Stanford, ECU, Colorado, West Virginia, Arizona, Utah, Iowa State .

Let's see what Kalani Sitake's group has for Texas Tech this weekend. Deal with the tortillas — and the Red Raiders ' lines of scrimmage — and then I'm a believer.

No. 10 Notre Dame

If this were Iowa State playing this schedule, the Cyclones would be ranked in the 20s.

The Irish blew a late lead at home to Texas A&M, and never really threatened Miami in the season opener — despite the one possession game. Outside of that, there are these six wins:

Purdue hasn't won a Big Ten game, Arkansas hasn't won an SEC game, Boston College hasn't won an ACC game, and home wins against USC, NC State and Boise State.

I'm gonna puke.

The frantic

No. 2 Indiana

It's clear the committee was using eye test for Ohio State (lines of scrimmage!), yet the far and away eye test team of the field is Indiana.

The Hoosiers blew the doors off Illinois and physically manhandled Oregon in their two ranked games, and then annihilated everyone else (with the exception of Phil Parker's defense at Iowa). Like Ohio State, Indiana is ranked in the top five in the nation in scoring offense and defense ― against a more difficult schedule.

Eye, meet test.

No. 6 Ole Miss

No matter what the Rebels do, they're not moving ahead of Georgia (where they lost and blew a two possession lead in the fourth quarter) and Alabama (which beat Georgia). Unless, of course, Georgia or Alabama lose.

If Georgia and Alabama continue winning, the Ole Miss ceiling is more than likely No. 5 — and a spot in the first round playing host to dangerous South Florida (of course the Bulls are beating Memphis in Round 2).

No. 18 Miami

Barring a collapse in front of them, the Canes are done. That win over Notre Dame in the season opener? Means nothing.

The Canes could win out (including a difficult roadie at Pitt), finish 10-2 and still be behind the Irish. As long as the Irish keep winning, there's no chance Miami is making up ground.

I mean, unless their lines of scrimmage start dominating games.

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB .

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: CFP rankings: Ohio State still a darling, Michigan still the disrupter

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CFP has a Michigan problem, which could become an Oklahoma problem

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The fortunate

The frantic